Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 1

Published Sep. 27, 2023 1:05 p.m. ET

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The New Orleans Saints (2-1) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) will face off in a matchup of two division rivals. The Saints are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). The predicted point total for the matchup is 40.5.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Lines

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: New Orleans (-3)
  
• Pick OU: Under (40.5)
  
• Prediction: New Orleans 20 - Tampa Bay 16

How to Watch New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay

• Game Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Caesars Superdome
• Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
• TV: Watch on FOX

Saints vs. Buccaneers Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head bouts, New Orleans has defeated Tampa Bay three times.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, New Orleans has racked up 119 points, while Tampa Bay has accumulated 92.

New Orleans Betting Info

• New Orleans compiled a 7-10-0 record against the spread last season.
• The Saints had one win ATS (1-3) as a 3-point favorite or more last year.
• A total of six New Orleans games last season hit the over.
• The Saints won 66.7% of the games last season when they were favored on the moneyline (4-2).
• In games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -162 or shorter, New Orleans had a 3-1 record (winning 75% of its games).
• The Saints have an implied moneyline win probability of 61.8% in this contest.

Saints Stats (2022)

New Orleans' Key Players

Offense

• Derek Carr threw for 3,522 yards last year for the Raiders, with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He completed 60.8% of his passes while averaging 234.8 yards per game and 7.0 per attempt.
• Alvin Kamara scored two rushing touchdowns, while totaling 897 rushing yards (4.0 per carry and 59.8 per game).
• Kamara added 57 receptions (3.8 per game) for 490 yards (32.7 per game) with two receiving touchdowns. He was targeted 77 times in the passing attack.
• Taysom Hill threw for 240 yards last year, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. He completed 68.4% of his passes while averaging 15.0 yards per game and 12.6 per attempt.
• He added 575 yards on the ground, with seven rushing touchdowns. He averaged 35.9 yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.
• Chris Olave had 72 catches for 1,042 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He averaged 4.8 yards per game over 15 games and was targeted 119 times.

Defense

• Demario Davis' 2022 effort included 109 tackles, 10.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and one interception over 17 games.
• Cameron Jordan had 66 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 8.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
• Tyrann Mathieu intercepted three passes on top of91 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and eight passes defended during the 2022 campaign.
• Pete Werner compiled 79 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and three passes defended.

Tampa Bay Betting Info

• Tampa Bay went 4-12-1 ATS last year.
• The Buccaneers didn't have a win ATS (0-4) as 3-point or larger underdogs last season.
• In Tampa Bay games last year, combined scoring went over the point total six times.
• Last season, the Buccaneers were listed as the underdog in three games and failed to win any of those contests.
• Last season, Tampa Bay was at least a +136 underdog on the moneyline three times, losing each of those contests.
• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 42.4% chance of a victory for the Buccaneers.

Buccaneers Stats (2022)

Tampa Bay's Key Players

Offense

• Last season, Mike Evans had 77 catches for 1,124 yards with six receiving TDs. He was targeted 127 times and averaged 5.1 receptions in 15 games.
• In 12 games, Baker Mayfield had 2,163 passing yards, with 10 TDs with eight INTs and completing 60.0% of his attempts.
• Mayfield also had one rushing TD and 89 rushing yards.
• In 15 games last year, Chris Godwin had 104 catches (6.9 per game on 9.5 targets per game) for 1,023 yards and three TDs.
• Rachaad White scored one TD on the ground, while running for 481 total yards (3.7 per carry and 28.3 per game).
• White added 50 catches (2.9 per game) for 290 yards (17.1 per game) and two TDs. He was on the end of 58 targets.

Defense

• In 2022, Devin White recorded 124 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and 5.5 sacks in 17 games.
• Lavonte David posted 124 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and three sacks.
• Antoine Winfield Jr. posted 4.0 sacks in addition to his 7.0 TFL, 80 tackles, and one interception.
• Carlton Davis totaled 3.0 TFL, 63 tackles, and one interception in 13 games.

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