Saints vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 7

Published Jan. 3, 2024 1:08 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The New Orleans Saints (8-8) are the favorites -- expected to win by at least a field goal, but less than a touchdown (currently -3) -- against the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) in a battle of two division rivals. The predicted point total for the matchup is 42.

Saints vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Lines

Saints vs Falcons Betting Information updated as of January 3, 2024, 11:33 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Saints	-3	-118	-102	42	-110	-110

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: New Orleans (-3)
Pick OU: Under (42)
Prediction: New Orleans 25 - Atlanta 16

How to Watch New Orleans vs. Atlanta

Game Date: Sunday, January 7, 2024
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: Watch on CBS

Saints vs. Falcons Recent Matchups

Over their last five meetings, New Orleans has collected three wins versus Atlanta.
Over their last five head-to-head contests, Atlanta has scored 112 points, while New Orleans has tallied 98.

New Orleans Betting Info

New Orleans has played 16 games, posting five wins against the spread.
The Saints have covered the spread twice when favored by 3 points or more this season (in seven opportunities).
New Orleans games in 2023 have hit the over five times in 16 opportunities (31.2%).
The Saints have compiled a 6-6 record in games they played as moneyline favorite (winning 50% of those games).
New Orleans is 3-1 (winning 75% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -170 or shorter.
The implied probability in this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Saints a 63.0% chance to win.

Saints Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	234.0 (3,744)	12
Rush yards	99.3 (1,588)	21
Points scored	22.1 (354)	14
Pass yards against	200.8 (3,213)	9
Rush yards against	122.5 (1,960)	21
Points allowed	19.4 (310)	6

New Orleans' Key Players

Offense

Derek Carr has thrown for 3,614 yards, 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. He is averaging 225.9 yards per game and 7.0 per attempt, while completing 67.9% of his passes.
Alvin Kamara averages 3.9 yards per carry (29th in the NFL) and 53.4 yards per game, and has 694 total rushing yards. He has recorded five rushing TDs this season.
Kamara has 75 receptions on 86 targets for 466 yards. He has one receiving TD.
Chris Olave has four touchdown catches this season, and has 84 catches for 1,067 yards on 135 targets, while averaging 5.6 catches and 71.1 yards per game.
He has added 350 rushing yards (23.3 per game) and four touchdowns on the ground.

Defense

Over on defense, Demario Davis has 112 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks in 2023. His tackle total leads the Saints.
Carl Granderson has 8.5 sacks (first on the Saints) to go with 13.0 TFL and 74 tackles.
Paulson Adebo has collected 69 tackles and four interceptions this year.
Alontae Taylor has one interception with 74 tackles, 6.0 TFL, one sack, and 13 passes defended.

Atlanta Betting Info

Atlanta has covered the spread five times in 16 games with a set total.
The Falcons have been underdogs by 3 points or more three times this season and have not covered the spread once.
Atlanta's games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this season.
The Falcons have won two of the five games they've played as underdogs this season.
Atlanta has played as an underdog of +142 or more once this season and lost that game.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 41.3% chance of a victory for the Falcons.

Falcons Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	200.8 (3,213)	22
Rush yards	130.1 (2,081)	8
Points scored	19.0 (304)	26
Pass yards against	200.2 (3,203)	8
Rush yards against	115.9 (1,855)	19
Points allowed	20.3 (325)	9

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

Bijan Robinson averages 59.3 rushing yards per game this year (948 total yards to rank ninth in the NFL), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
Robinson has also been a piece of the passing game with 384 yards (24.0 per game) on 51 receptions (3.2 per game), while being targeted 78 times. He has three receiving touchdowns.
Through 14 games, Desmond Ridder has 2,545 passing yards, while throwing 10 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and completing 63.4% of his passes.
He has also added 193 rushing yards (third on the Falcons), with five touchdowns on the ground (averaging 13.8 yards per game and 3.8 per carry).
Tyler Allgeier has rushed for four touchdowns this year, and has totaled 659 rushing yards (41.2 per game and 3.7 per carry).
Allgeier's stat sheet includes 15 receptions (0.9 per game) on 20 targets for 183 yards (11.4 per game) and one receiving touchdown.
Drake London has 65 catches for 864 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He averages 4.3 yards per game through 15 games and has been targeted 101 times.

Defense

In 2023, Jessie Bates III has put up 128 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and six interceptions through 16 games.
Kaden Elliss has 119 tackles, 11.0 TFL, and four sacks. He is second on the Falcons in tackles.
Over the 2023 season, Nathan Landman has 100 tackles, 6.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception in 14 games.
Richie Grant has intercepted one pass to go with 92 tackles, 2.0 TFL, two sacks, and six passes defended.

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