Surging Colts look to protect their share of AFC South lead against slumping Falcons

Updated Dec. 22, 2023 6:43 p.m. ET

Associated Press

INDIANAPOLIS (8-6) at ATLANTA (6-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, Fox.

BETTING LINE: Falcons by 1 1/2, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

AGAINST THE SPREAD: Indianapolis 9-5, Atlanta 4-10

SERIES RECORD: Colts lead 15-2.

LAST MEETING: Colts won 27-24 on Sept. 22, 2019, at Indianapolis.

LAST WEEK: Colts beat Steelers 30-13, Falcons lost to Panthers 9-7.

COLTS OFFENSE: OVERALL (13), RUSH (13), PASS (18), SCORING (8).

COLTS DEFENSE: OVERALL (21), RUSH (26), PASS (18), SCORING (27).

FALCONS OFFENSE: OVERALL (19), RUSH (9), PASS (23), SCORING (T-26).

FALCONS DEFENSE: OVERALL (10), RUSH (T-15), PASS (8), SCORING (8).

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Colts plus-4, Falcons minus-6.

COLTS PLAYERS TO WATCH: Running backs. While it’s unclear who will play this week, the Colts know Gardner Minshew plays far better when he has a strong ground game. It looks as if Jonathan Taylor is ready to go after missing three games with a right thumb injury. But Zack Moss has a right arm injury and could sit out. If neither plays, former practice squad players Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson will see if they can replicate what they did last week — a combined 28 carries for 157 yards.

FALCONS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Taylor Heinicke will make his third start of the season after Desmond Ridder was benched for the second time. Heinicke has completed 41 of 74 passes for 498 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. The 30-year-old Heinicke will be asked to provide stability after Ridder threw 10 touchdown passes with 10 interceptions and 11 fumbles, including a game-turning late pick in last week's loss to Carolina.

KEY MATCHUP: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Colts run defense. Robinson, the rookie starter, had a crucial fumble last week and was held to only seven carries for 11 yards. The Falcons can be expected to lean heavily on Robinson, with support from Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, and take pressure off Heinicke by emphasizing their running game. Despite last week's poor game on a rainy field, Robinson has rushed for 801 yards, the most by any rookie in the league this season. He has rushed for four touchdowns and has 1,124 yards from scrimmage.

KEY INJURIES: WR Michael Pittman Jr. is questionable after he cleared the concussion protocol. Pittman, Indy’s leading receiver, got hurt on a big hit that resulted a season-ending suspension for Steelers S Damontae Kazee. ... RT Braden Smith has missed the past two games with a knee injury. ... Falcons RT Kaleb McGary (knee) and DT David Onyemata (ankle) did not practice Wednesday after missing last week's game. Guard Chris Lindstrom (ankle) and LB Bud Dupree (knee) could return this week.

SERIES NOTES: The Colts are 8-1 all time in Atlanta. ... The Colts won the first 10 games of the series and also the past two. ... The Falcons' most recent win in the series was a 31-7 decision on Nov. 6, 2011, at Indianapolis. The Colts beat the Falcons in their most-recent trip to Atlanta, 24-21 in 2015 at the Georgia Dome. This will be the Colts' first regular-season game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which opened in 2017. ... Longtime Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan played the final season of his career in Indianapolis before moving to the broadcast booth this season.

STATS AND STUFF: Indy has won five of its past six, climbing from the AFC South basement into a three-way tie atop the division with Jacksonville and Houston. ... The Falcons have lost back-to-back games to fall out of the NFC South lead. ... Indy’s only loss at Atlanta was a 28-21 defeat in 1998, during Peyton Manning’s rookie season. ... The Colts are one of four teams to score 20 or more points 12 times this season. ... Minshew has matched his career high with six wins this season. ... WR Josh Downs needs seven receptions to tie Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (64) for second most by a rookie in Colts history. ... Pittman fell four catches short of breaking Harrison’s streak for consecutive games of eight or more receptions (six). ... Indy needs one sack to break the single-season franchise record (46 in 1989). ... The Colts and Denver are tied for the most strip-sacks this season (10). ... K Matt Gay is 10 of 15 on field goals over the past five games and has missed at least one kick in four of those contests. ... Colts punt returner Isaiah McKenzie was suspended for the final three regular-season games on Tuesday. Downs replaced McKenzie, who was inactive, last week. ... Atlanta's defense held Carolina without a touchdown last week. The Falcons' three games without allowing a touchdown this season are a high mark since 2006. ... WR Drake London has 130 catches in his first two seasons, three behind Julio Jones' 133 in 2011-12, the most by a Falcons player in his first two seasons. ... Heinicke has produced 36 touchdowns, including 34 passing, in 27 career starts. ... LB Kaden Elliss has a career-high 100 tackles and has matched his high with seven tackles for losses. ... S Jessie Bates has matched his career high with 111 tackles and has a career-high five interceptions.

FANTASY TIP: In Atlanta's most recent home game two weeks ago, London had career highs with 10 catches for 172 yards against Tampa Bay. London should have enough familiarity with Heinicke to continue to flourish at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. He also had nine catches for 125 yards against Washington on Oct. 15 in another big home game and has averaged six catches for 88.8 yards in games played in Atlanta this season.

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