Patriots vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Picks - Nov 5

Published Nov. 1, 2023 1:10 p.m. ET

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The New England Patriots (2-6) are favored by 3.5 points versus the Washington Commanders (3-5) on November 5, 2023, starting at 1:00 PM ET, airing on FOX. The total for this one is set at 41 points.

Patriots vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

Patriots vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Washington (+3.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (41)
  
• Prediction: New England 24 - Washington 21

How to Watch New England vs. Washington

• Game Date: Sunday, November 5, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• TV: Watch on FOX

Patriots vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• New England holds a 4-1 record against Washington in their last five matchups.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, New England has scored 163 points, while Washington has posted 71.

New England Betting Info

• So far this season New England has two victories against the spread.
• New England has combined with its opponent to hit the over in 37.5% of its contests this year (three times in eight games with a set point total).
• The Patriots have been moneyline favorites two other times this season, and they split them.
• New England has never played a game this season with moneyline odds of -166 or shorter.
• The implied probability in this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Patriots a 62.4% chance to win.

Patriots Stats

New England's Key Players

Offense

• Mac Jones has passed for 1,641 yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. He averages 205.1 yards per game and 6.3 per attempt, while completing 66.5% of his passes.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has racked up 307 rushing yards with two touchdowns (38.4 yards per game over eight games). His 3.2 yards per attempt rank 37th in the league.
• Stevenson has 25 receptions on 34 targets for 173 yards. He has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
• Ezekiel Elliott's output on the ground this season includes 260 yards and two TDs. He's averaging 32.5 yards per game and 3.9 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
• Hunter Henry has racked up 238 receiving yards and two touchdowns with 23 catches on 34 targets. He is averaging 2.9 receptions and 29.8 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense for the Patriots, Kyle Dugger has racked up 55 tackles, 5.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception in 2023.
• Jabrill Peppers has 3.0 TFL, 49 tackles, and one interception.
• Ja'Whaun Bentley has put up 55 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack this year.
• So far this season, Jahlani Tavai has 47 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington has covered the spread in a game three times this year (3-4-1).
• The Commanders have covered the spread twice this season when underdogs by 3.5 points or more (in four chances).
• Washington's games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under four times this season.
• The Commanders have entered the game as underdogs five times this season and won twice.
• Washington has a record of 1-3 when it is set as an underdog of +140 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The Commanders have a 41.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Commanders Stats

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• Sam Howell is averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt (19th in the NFL) and 268.3 yards per game this year, completing 66.9% of his passes on the way to 2,146 total yards (sixth in the NFL), 13 touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) and eight interceptions through eight games.
• On the ground, Howell has added one rushing touchdown and 130 rushing yards (second on the Commanders).
• Brian Robinson Jr. has scored four rushing touchdowns, while totaling 384 rushing yards (4.0 per attempt and 48.0 per game).
• Robinson has added 13 receptions (1.6 per game) for 133 yards (16.6 per game) with two receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 16 times in the passing game.
• So far this season, Terry McLaurin has caught 42 passes for 495 receiving yards with two touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 63 total times and is averaging 5.3 receptions per game through eight games played.
• Curtis Samuel has 332 receiving yards and two touchdowns from 35 receptions after receiving 43 targets.

Defense

• So far in 2023, Kamren Curl has 1.0 sack to go with 3.0 TFL and 65 tackles through eight games.
• Jamin Davis has 2.0 sacks (third on the Commanders) to go with 2.0 TFL, 48 tackles, and one interception.
• Benjamin St-Juste has 39 tackles and one interception.
• Da'Ron Payne has 1.0 sack (fourth on the Commanders) as well as 6.0 TFL and 25 tackles.

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