Buffalo Bills

2016 NFL Playoffs: Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 4:11 p.m. ET

Fansided, Chris Spooner/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Surprisingly, the Miami Dolphins are in the thick of the playoff hunt. Here’s how their playoff scenarios break down.

When the Miami Dolphins started the 2016 NFL season at 1-4, you would have been hard-pressed to find a fan—myself included—who believed the playoffs were still possible. Fans and pundits were calling for Ryan Tannehill’s head. Gase and the coaching staff were deemed a failure.

And yet, as we head into the penultimate week of the 2016 season, that’s exactly where we are. We’re not talking about yet another failed season. Instead, we’re looking at the real possibility of Matt Moore leading the Dolphins to the postseason.

Subsequently, we’ll take a look at what it’ll take to get there, breaking down the playoff scenarios for Miami.

No. 6 Seed

The first playoff scenario is simple: Win and you’re in. No backing into the playoffs, no hoping someone else loses. The Dolphins are in control of their own destiny. Take care of business, and the playoffs are guaranteed.

But, should the Dolphins falter, all hope is not lost. There are a couple of scenarios where the Dolphins can clinch, even with a loss to either Buffalo Bills or New England Patriots.

The first and most likely scenario in which Miami can lose a game and still wind up with the No. 6 seed could easily be accomplished by the end of this weekend. If the Miami Dolphins win one of their next two games, either against Buffalo or New England, and the Denver Broncos lose one game, the Dolphins clinch.

More from NFL Spin Zone

Denver has a rough road to close out the season. They go on the road to Kansas City this weekend. Then they finish the season with a game that could decide the AFC West. I still think the Oakland Raiders will have the division wrapped up by then, but time will tell.

If, however, Denver does manage to run the table and beat both the Chiefs and Raiders, Miami is still alive for the second Wild Card spot.

Should the Chiefs fall to the Broncos at home, Dolphins fans will be rooting for the San Diego Chargers come the final Sunday of the regular season. If the Dolphins win one game and Kansas City loses both of their remaining games, the final spot is Miami’s.

But Miami’s playoff scenarios don’t stop at the second Wild Card spot. There are actually two scenarios in which the Dolphins could come out of next week’s games with the fifth seed, which would mean a very favorable matchup with the winner of the AFC South.

No. 5 Seed

The easiest way for the Dolphins to take the first Wild Card spot and get their most favorable matchup starts with them winning both games. That actually seems a bit more reasonable after watching Matt Moore look comfortable with the offense in last Sunday’s demolishing of the New York Jets. If Moore can lead the Dolphins to victory against the Bills, Miami will travel home to finish up the season against the Patriots.

The idea of facing the Patriots likely makes most fans cringe, and rightly so. However, it’s entirely probable that Bill Belichick will choose to rest most of the starters. The Patriots will likely have nothing to play for by the time this game rolls around. A hot Dolphins team against the Patriots’ second string is not a matchup that scares me.

However, running the table isn’t quite enough to get Miami into a playoff game against either the Houston Texans or Tennessee Titans. They’ll need a little help. Once again, this help would come from the Kansas City Chiefs. If Miami can run the table and have Kansas City lose just one of their final two games, the Dolphins’ playoff ticket is punched in the No. 5 spot.

Miami could even lose to either the Bills or Patriots and still wind up locking down that trip to the AFC South winner. If the Chiefs have a late-season meltdown and lose to both the Broncos and Chargers while Denver also loses to Oakland, Miami still doesn’t need to run the table.

No matter which of these scenarios plays out, the 2016 season is nothing short of a resounding success for the Miami Dolphins. That remains the case even if they ultimately fall short. Playoff appearance or not, what Adam Gase has done with this team in only one year is remarkable. But the odds are in Miami’s favor and the playoffs could be just around the corner. It’s going to be an exciting two weeks. Fins up!