The Cincinnati Bengals sustained a season-changing injury on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The loss of quarterback Andy Dalton, who fractured his thumb on his throwing hand, will affect the Bengals' offense moving forward, forcing backup quarterback AJ McCarron into a starting role, at least for now.
McCarron, who is in his second season, will make his first start against the San Francisco 49ers this weekend. He will be tasked with picking up where Dalton left off and helping Cincinnati compete for a first-round bye and possibly nabbing the Bengals' elusive first postseason win in 25 years.
Dalton is officially week-to-week, according to Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, but the mere possibility of not having him at full strength could be a game-changer.
And so our friends and WhatIfSports simulated the Bengals' remaining regular-season games, as well as games against four potential high-end playoff opponents, 501 times and calculated the following winning percentages with both Dalton and McCarron under center.
Certainly, there's a dropoff in expected production with McCarron, which should come as little surprise. What might be surprising is that dropoff isn't hugely dramatic. On average, the Bengals are a 57.4 percent favorite with Dalton under center and just 46.6 percent with McCarron.
BENGALS ODDS TO WIN: DALTON VS. MCCARRON
| Week | Opponent | Dalton | McCarron |
| Week 15 | at 49ers | 81.4% | 75.5% |
| Week 16 | at Broncos | 48.7% | 37.8% |
| Week 17 | vs. Ravens | 77.2% | 67.9% |
| Playoffs | Patriots | 52.6% | 34.7% |
| Playoffs | Broncos | 52.0% | 38.4% |
| Playoffs | Cardinals | 49.5% | 41.1% |
| Playoffs | Panthers | 40.7% | 30.5% |
| Overall average | 57.4% | 46.6% |
It makes little difference either way for the regular season, as far as the computers are concerned, with Cincinnati heavily favored to beat the 49ers in Week 15 and the Ravens in Week 17 and also picked to lose at Denver in Week 16 with either quarterback running the show.
Against potential playoff opponents, though, the differences mean more. With Dalton, the computer likes the Bengals -- albeit just barely -- against possible AFC foes Denver and New England. With McCarron, Cincinnati is a solid underdog against both. (The still-unknown location of those games, obviously, would factor greatly in the prediction.)
When it comes to possible Super Bowl opponents Arizona and Carolina, the Bengals get the short end of the stick with either Dalton or McCarron, but the odds are still much better with Dalton.
Dalton, who has a career-low seven interceptions so far this season, has done a spectacular job at protecting the ball. That's something McCarron must make a priority if the Bengals hope to be competing in January and beyond.
It's no doubt the Bengals want Dalton back as quickly as possible, but at least for the next three weeks, the computers like McCarron to lead them to a comparable fate.
