Pittsburgh Steelers

Can the Steelers make a run at Bengals for the AFC North?

Published Nov. 23, 2015 5:25 p.m. ET

foxsports

The Pittsburgh Steelers emerge from their bye week just two games back in the AFC North, thanks to back-to-back losses by the previously unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals. Currently standing as the fifth seed in the conference, can Ben Roethlisberger and company make a run at the divisional crown?

The Steelers (6-4) are now just two games behind the Bengals in their quest for a second straight AFC North title. Both teams have games against the Browns, Ravens and Broncos on their schedule. Pittsburgh gets Denver at home in Week 15 while Cincinnati will have to travel to the Mile High City the following week.

Still, for the Steelers to have any realistic chance of leapfrogging the Bengals, they'll have to come away with a win when the teams square off in Week 14 in Cincinnati.

Here is a breakdown of Pittsburgh's remaining six games along with predictions using our WhatIfSports simulation engine. (Games were simulated 10 times to see determine the average outcome.)

Week 12 at Seahawks (5-5): Seattle hasn't been its usual dominant self at home this season, but its two losses have come against the Panthers and Cardinals, two of the best teams in NFL. The Steelers offense could do some damage as long as their offensive line can protect Roethlisberger.

WhatIf prediction: Surprisingly, the Steelers won 9 of 10 matchups with an average score of 22.8 to 13.7. WIN

Week 13 vs. Colts (5-5): Without Andrew Luck, the Steelers should have no problem disposing of Indianapolis.

WhatIf prediction: The Colts actually won 3 of 10 simulations by an average of 3.3 points, but the Steelers' advantage in their seven wins was 13.6 points. Just in case, we simulated 10 matchups with Luck as the quarterback. The results were much closer as expected, but Pittsburgh still held the edge 6-4 with an average margin of 2.2 points. WIN

Week 14 at Bengals (8-2): The Steelers offense sputtered in Roethlisberger's first game back the last time these teams met in Week 8. It's a must-win situation for Pittsburgh, but this game is basically a toss-up.

WhatIf prediction: The Bengals came out on top in 6 of 10 simulations with an average margin of 4.8 points. LOSS

Week 15 vs. Broncos (8-2): It will be interesting to see if Peyton Manning regains the starting job by this point. Cold, windy conditions have never been friendly to the aging future Hall of Famer, so being at home should benefit the Steelers.

WhatIf prediction: This one had to be simulated with both Manning and Brock Osweiler. Interestingly, Pittsburgh's record against Manning (7-3) was better than it was against his backup (5-5), and the average scoring difference was 4 1/2 points worse facing Osweiler. WIN

Week 16 at Ravens (3-7): Playing against their most heated division foe is never easy for the Steelers, but it should be smooth sailing in this one. No Joe Flacco, no Terrell Suggs, and no Steve Smith Sr. will be a recipe for a Pittsburgh win.

WhatIf prediction: The Ravens somehow came out victorious in three simulations with an average margin of victory of 10 points, but the Steelers won by an average of 13.4 points in their seven victories. WIN

Week 17 at Browns (2-8): The Steelers will get their second look at Johnny Manziel, who tossed for a career-high 372 yards in Pittsburgh in Week 10. This game will help determine Pittsburgh's playoff seeding, while the Browns will be looking forward to getting back to their warm homes for another long offseason.

WhatIf prediction: Steelers win in 7 of 10 matchups by an average margin of 7.1 points. Perhaps Manziel can repeat his success against Pittsburgh again. WIN

So going by our WhatIfSports simulations, the Steelers finish out at 11-5 after winning five or their last six games, although the game against Denver is virtually a toss-up. The loss to Cincinnati would virtual guarantee the Bengals the division by way of a season sweep over Pittsburgh.

If these predictions prove correct, the Bengals would have to lose four of their remaining five games to squander the division. With the Rams, Browns, 49ers, Broncos and Ravens on their schedule, it seems more and more likely that Pittsburgh will have to settle for a Wild Card berth.