San Francisco 49ers

Week 15 NFL picks against the spread recap with Jason McIntyre | WHAT DID YOU LEARN?

Published Dec. 17, 2019 5:52 p.m. ET

Jason McIntyre

It happened again ... I was feeling confident in my picks through the afternoon games - well, as confident as possible when you back the Lions, and they are losing the yardage battle after the first quarter 236-1 - but the Texans were a mostly no-sweat cover, and the Patriots dominated the second half in Cincinnati for a 2-1 start.

Then then it went downhill ... the Falcons were covering the entire game in San Francisco, and my handicap of the game was spot-on. And then it happened: One play can flip a game - go read ab0ut the Chargers (I'm sorry, it’s just too disgusting to write twice). And again with the Steelers at home at night. Both happened at home! Last year I cost myself a lot of money in the final few weeks of the season ... and let’s just say I'm starting to think it's a good idea to tweak my process.

Dominating a stat sheet doesn't guarantee a win

Tennessee had more first downs, more yards, more yards-per-play, fewer turnovers … and still lost. Houston was the right side here - they never trailed. DeShaun Watson even threw two interceptions in the end zone. The same Texans team who got shredded last week by Drew Lock and the Broncos for 38 points in Houston went to Tennessee and held the high-powered Titans scoreless for the first 39 minutes.

A good coach can make a bet-on team

Let’s just ignore the fact that the Falcons scored 13 points in the final :04 seconds of the game ... and anyone who had the under suffered a devastating beat (I'm sorry - I know your pain). But let’s instead focus on the puzzling Kyle Shanahan decision that ultimately cost the 49ers the game. I'll break it down for you: Leading 19-17 with 1:48 left, San Francisco was facing fourth-and-1 on the Atlanta 25. A quarterback sneak by Jimmy Garoppolo gets the first down - and the game is probably over. At worst, the Falcons get the ball back without enough time to go the length of the field and win the game.

Instead, Shanahan kicked a 43-yard field goal ... and lost the game. Say what you will about Dan Quinn - he’s been on the chopping block for weeks - but his players haven’t quit on him. Stat of the day: With Richard Sherman out, Atlanta targeted Julio Jones 20 times. He caught 13 for 134 yards and two touchdowns.

A cover looks great ... until there's a momentum change

We’ve talked a few times season about how one play can change an entire game. I know, I know - that’s a tough sell in a 39-10 game in which one team turns the ball over seven times ... but the Vikings were up 12-10 in the final seconds of the first half, and the Chargers were driving.

They were at the Minnesota 26, and - at the minimum - it's field goal a field goal, right? Wrong. Philip Rivers does what he does best: Turns the ball over ... he drops back to pass, fumbles, the Chargers can’t secure it and Vikings defensive end Ifeadi Odenigbo runs it back 56 yards for a touchdown. Heartbreaker. The Chargers never recovered. They fumbled again on first play of the second half ... and everything went downhill from there.

It's not an NFL Sunday without a shocker

Listen to this one: According to the Football Outsiders, the Rams had the third rated run defense. Sure, it was shredded up by the Ravens ... but Baltimore destroys everyone. Things you don’t expect: Dallas to run for 263 yards and 5.8 yards per carry in a beatdown of the Rams. The Cowboys defense held the Rams to seven points in the first half, and Todd Gurley was limited to 20 yards on 11 carries.

Finally, we can no longer say that Dallas hasn't beaten a team with a winning record. But - honestly - it really doesn't matter if the Cowboys don't defeat the Eagles next week, nobody will ever remember this game (except probably the Rams, who now have almost no chance at the playoffs).

When turnovers are involved, a bet is never safe

Well, this one hurt. The Steelers led 10-7 in the third quarter, TJ Watt stripped Devin Singletary of the ball and Pittsburgh recovered. The Steelers were in control. But Duck Hodges was intercepted three times ... including two in the final four minutes when Pittsburgh had a chance to tie the game. It's simple: You just can’t win when you turn the ball over five times. These two teams are very even - the Steelers averaged just four yards per play to the Bills 4.1 ... Hodges just made more mistakes.