10 bold predictions as college basketball season gets started
Finally, the season is here, with a whole lot of action Friday and a whole lot more on the docket ahead. With that, 10 bold predictions to take us from here to April:
1. The Big 12 will send two teams to the Final Four. Those teams will be deep, balanced, experienced Kansas, and deep, balanced, experienced Iowa State. But deep, balanced, experienced Oklahoma could also make a Final Four. And it’s not outside the realm of possibility for tough-to-prepare-for West Virginia or talented, newly energized Texas to surprise people. The Big 12 doesn’t have the same depth as a year ago, but the top of the league is an absolute beast -- and will provide some of the most fun, up-tempo basketball in the nation. One of the storylines in last season’s NCAA tournament, after first-round losses by Iowa State and Baylor, was that the Big 12 wasn’t as good as everyone had said all year long. One of the storylines in this season’s NCAA tournament will be that the Big 12 is even better than we thought all season long.
2. In the age of one-and-dones, experience will rule. Two years ago was the year of the superfreshmen, where we spent all season talking about Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid and Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle. Last year was the year of the title contenders dominated by one-and-dones: Kentucky went an astounding 38-1 on the shoulders of freshmen Karl-Anthony Towns, Trey Lyles and Devin Booker, and Duke won the title starting three freshmen. This year will be different. Kentucky and Duke will again be in the title mix with a new crop of one-and-dones, but I expect the more important ingredient for Final Four teams to be experience, and experience playing together. Kansas. Iowa State. Oklahoma. Maryland. Indiana. Michigan State. Villanova. All of these teams have players who are among the top 20 upperclassmen in college basketball. Most of them stir in an elite freshmen or two to their experienced core. That’s the key to success in today’s college hoops.
3. The Melo Trimble of this season will be Jalen Brunson. By Melo Trimble, I mean a fairly well-regarded recruit who absolutely blew up during his freshman year and takes his team far. Freshmen point guards don’t often carry a team, but freshmen point guards don’t often have the mature basketball sense of Brunson. Brunson, the son of former Temple star and NBA player Rick Brunson, has an uncommon ability to see the floor and anticipate plays. With Brunson playing alongside fellow point guard Ryan Arcidiacono, a senior, Villanova has the smartest backcourt in the nation. Some people are down on Villanova because of the team’s early exit from the NCAA tournament a year ago. That’s folly. This team is one of about a dozen or so who could win it all.
4. The most underperforming team in the preseason top 10 will be North Carolina. This is my bold prediction that may end the season looking like my dumbest bold prediction. North Carolina could absolutely win it all. It is returning almost everybody from a team that was a four-seed in the NCAA tournament last season, and I’ve seen more pundits pick Carolina to win it all than any other team. Coach Roy Williams hasn’t had this sort of depth since he last won the national title in 2009. My brain tells me UNC will be a top-five team all year. My gut tells me something different. Maybe it’s because of the looming possibility of NCAA sanctions on the program. Maybe it’s because point guard Marcus Paige’s broken hand, an injury that will keep him out a month, reminded me how important he is to their success, and how injury-prone he’s been. Maybe it’s that J.P. Tokoto’s surprise decision to jump to the NBA will have a bigger impact than anyone would imagine. Or maybe it’s that North Carolina’s team a year ago often felt a bit lacking to me.
5. The nation’s assists leader will come from an unlikely spot. And that’s Omaha, Neb., where Creighton has managed to fly below the preseason radar nationally as well as in the Big East. The last we saw of the diminutive Maurice Watson Jr., who is coming off his redshirt year after transferring from Boston University, he was one of the best assist guys in all of college basketball. This year, with an up-tempo Creighton team that can really shoot it, he’ll run away with the assist title. He told me he wants to average 10 per game. By the way, Creighton will surprise people. I know the Bluejays disappointed in their first post-Doug McDermott season a year ago, going 4-14 in the Big East. But remember: That was always expected to be a rebuilding year. And Creighton led in the final minute of six of those 14 Big East losses. Watson manning the point ought to open up a world of possibilities for head coach Greg McDermott, one of the most inventive offensive minds in college basketball.
Keep an eye on Marquette's Henry Ellenson. NBA teams will be.
6. Three players will make pushes to unseat the conventional wisdom No. 1 overall draft picks. Conventional wisdom says that the next No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft will either be Kentucky freshman big man Skal Labissiere or LSU point forward Ben Simmons. (For the record, I’d pick Simmons, although scouts rave about Labissiere as an enormous upside player.) Here are three names that could upset that conventional wisdom: Henry Ellenson of Marquette, Brandon Ingram of Duke and Jamal Murray of Kentucky. NBA comparisons are always unfair, usually imperfect but still fun and useful, so here are mine: Ellenson = Kevin Love. Ingram = Kevin Durant. Murray = Russell Westbrook.
7. Kentucky will be closer to the 2013-14 version than the 2014-15 version. By that, I mean Kentucky is going to struggle the first couple months in adjusting to a brand-new roster and a brand-new style of basketball. Two years ago, Kentucky made the national title game but it was as an eight-seed that struggled through the first four months of the season. Last year, Kentucky was nails from Day 1, very nearly becoming the first 40-0 team in college basketball history. This year’s version will struggle. I talked with John Calipari the morning after his team’s Blue-White Scrimmage last month, and he told me he couldn’t sleep after that game. He was worried because it just showed him how far this group has to go. Remember: Last year this team was from the Land of the Giants, filled with 7-footers, a roster more fit for the NBA than the SEC. This year Calipari will be playing small ball, often trotting out a three-guard lineup – sophomore Tyler Ulis and freshmen Isaiah Briscoe and Jamal Murray. Kentucky will look completely different. It’ll take time to adjust.
Fred VanVleet will be the driving force behind another Wichita State uprising.
8. Fred VanVleet will be the most important player in college basketball. What a wild first three years of college basketball for the barely recruited VanVleet: An unlikely Final Four run, a team that won its first 35 games before meeting Kentucky in the NCAA tournament and a team that beat in-state rival Kansas on the way to the Sweet 16. I love this year’s group. Wichita State, with seniors VanVleet and Ron Baker, may have the best backcourt in college hoops. VanVleet is the key to Wichita State’s shot at another Final Four -- which is very realistic. He’s lost 18 pounds in a bit more than a year, looks athletic and bouncy, and is still one of the best leaders you’ll ever find in the college game.
9. USC will make the NCAA tournament. Tricked ya. I’m hedging my bets here. I mean either University of Southern California -- which struggled in the Pac-12 last season with one of the nation’s youngest teams but is starting to see the benefits of Andy Enfield’s recruiting prowess -- or the University of South Carolina, where Frank Martin finally has a team full of Frank Martin guys. One of these teams will be the surprise team to make the NCAA tournament, mark my words.
10. A team you’ve never heard of will make the Sweet 16. Maybe it’s Stephen F. Austin, which has been knocking on the door for a while. Maybe it’s Central Michigan, the pride of the MAC, where Keno Davis has an experienced crew returning. Maybe it’s Bryce Drew’s Valparaiso, or Danny Hurley’s Rhode Island, or Dave Richman’s North Dakota State. In a season that feels so wide open at the beginning, there will be a Cinderella at the end.
Follow Reid Forgrave on Twitter @reidforgrave or email him at ReidForgrave@gmail.com.
