College Basketball

2023 March Madness: Bookmaker's take on UCLA, Alabama and NCAA Tournament

Updated Mar. 24, 2023 8:46 a.m. ET

Talking to Las Vegas bookmakers on a daily basis is one of the best parts of my job. I made friends with a bunch of ‘em after moving out to Las Vegas five years ago and regularly stay in touch with about a dozen to this day.

They’re generally quick to respond, they tell you what’s up and they have no shortage of opinions. As long as I wait until about 11 a.m. ET, that is. That three-hour time difference is no joke when I start my weekdays at the odds screen around 8 on the East Coast.

I often ask these guys about liability on certain games or markets.

"Bookie speak" is a real thing and a response like "we do okay" generally means the house is a small winner or loser to an outcome. No biggie either way. "We need the underdog for our lungs" means everybody is betting the favorite.

And then there’s the extreme responses.

"If UCLA wins the NCAA Tournament, I’ll take a bath," Golden Nugget executive sportsbook director Tony Miller told FOX Sports.

Hey now.

That sounds like an easy six-figure loser in my glossary.

"It’s not a good [result] at all," Miller continued. "UCLA got really popular in mid-February and I wrote good action all the way through the end of conference play. You also have to remember that lots of people from L.A. [cross the state line] on the weekends and bet their Southern California teams.

"There are a couple others that I finish in the red on, but no real damage. UCLA is the only team left that puts a burden on my bottom line."

Miller "does fine" if teams like Alabama or Houston win it all.

Meanwhile, my FOX Sports teammate Patrick Everson wrote a story earlier this week about the run of "Unders" through last Saturday. They went 33-11 in the first 44 games of this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Thing is, guys like Miller, who have been booking games for decades, are well aware of recent betting trends. They also don’t panic because regression is inevitable, and 44 games isn’t a large sample size.

And while bookmakers are quick to make slight adjustments, perception doesn’t drive the betting line — money does.

"It’s usually a frenzy of favorite money and ‘Over’ money at the Golden Nugget in the tournament," Miller explained. "We tend to shade toward the favorite and the ‘Over,’ but then you make the right moves when the results stack. The ‘Unders’ were just cleaning up and the public started to catch on."

Naturally, the "Over" went 6-2 on Sunday.

Another part of the March Madness sweats involve Cinderellas.

When teams like George Mason and Loyola Chicago come out of nowhere to make a Final Four, you can imagine the temperature rising inside the back of Las Vegas sportsbooks. A single $50 pre-tournament bet at 400-1 wins $20,000 and those obviously add up very quickly.

That's not counting all the latecomers at shorter prices.

There’s still a lot of work to be done for Florida Atlantic and Princeton to win their respective regions, but nothing is impossible in March. Is Miller nervous about either one cutting down the final nets at NRG Stadium?

Would Mister Fertitta chase him around the property?

"Believe it or not, I didn’t get much play on either one," Miller said.

"I was a massive loser to Oral Roberts, though. If Oral Roberts was still alive, I would be in a lot of trouble right now. I’m okay if these Cinderellas lift the slipper. Even Michigan State is fine. I’d love to see Sparty win it all.

"But Alabama and Houston are the two teams we expect at the end."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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