Betting trends for 2023 National championship game featuring SDSU-UConn

Updated Apr. 3, 2023 3:13 p.m. ET

And then there were two. That's right, the national championship game for the men's NCAA Tournament is finally upon us on Monday night.

The matchup features the UConn Huskies taking on the San Diego Aztecs. UConn is currently a 7.5-point favorite at FOX Bet

To get here, the Aztecs took down the Florida Atlantic Owls on a game-winning buzzer-beater, while the Huskies defeated the Miami Hurricanes by double-digits in the Final Four.

This is the first time a Mountain West team has made the title game and will be the first appearance for the Huskies since winning it all in 2014. This will also be the first-ever matchup between a 4-seed and a 5-seed in the national championship since seeding began in 1979.

Overall, this tournament has been one for the ages, and provided us with some of the most surprising results we've seen in its rich history. For reference, UConn was given 16-1 odds to win the national championship entering the tournament while the Aztecs were a whopping 80-1.

If San Diego State were to win, they would become the team with the second-longest pre-tournament odds of any national champion since 1976. The longest? Coincidentally it's UConn, who were 95-1 entering the tournament in 2014.

As always, FOX Sports Research wanted to take a deep dive into the numbers both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) in order to help you make some profitable wagers. Let's jump into the fun and, hopefully, make you a few dollars along the way.

Favorites of seven-plus points have not fared well in the national title game

As mentioned above, UConn comes into the game as a big betting favorite. While this might highlight how dominant the Huskies have been, the historical data says it might be worth wagering on San Diego State.

Since 1985, there have been seven teams favored by seven-plus points in the national championship game. Those teams have gone a staggering 2-5 ATS (28.6%) and 4-3 SU (57.1%).

In essence, teams in this situation have lost nearly half the time and rarely covered the spread. Below is a list of all the teams favored by seven-plus points in the title game since 1985, along with the result.

2010: Duke Blue Devils (-7), defeated Butler Bulldogs (61-59)
2009: North Carolina Tar Heels (-7.5) defeated Michigan State Spartans (89-72)
2002: Maryland Terrapins (-7.5) defeated Indiana Hoosiers (64-52)
1999: Duke (-9.5) lost to UConn (77-74)
1996: Kentucky Wildcats (-14) defeated Syracuse Orange (76-67)
1988: Oklahoma Sooners (-8) lost to Kansas Jayhawks (83-79)
1985: Georgetown Hoyas (-9) lost to Villanova Wildcats (66-64)

Can UConn stay perfect in title games?

The above trend shows how UConn might lose on Monday night, but their history differs from most. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS and SU all-time when playing in the national championship, with all those appearances coming since the 1999 NCAA Tournament. That is the single-best record of any team in the national championship game with a minimum of three appearances.

Other than the Louisville Cardinals, who are 3-0 in title games, there is no other team in tournament history to be undefeated in the national championship with a minimum of three appearances.

Here are some nuggets that might convince you to bet on the Huskies:

UConn is 26-11-1 ATS (70.3%) this season, the second-best cover rate of any team in Division-I this season (Utah Valley State Wolverines: 25-9 ATS, 73.5%)
UConn is 15-1 ATS (93.8%) and 16-0 SU this season when facing non-conference opponents
UConn is the sixth team since 1985 to win all five of its tournament games by double-digits; four of the previous five went on to win the national title
UConn has outscored its opponents by 103 points in the tournament, the seventh team all-time with a point differential of at least 100 entering the national title; five of the previous six teams to do so won the championship
UConn is posting 79.8 PPG in the tournament, the fourth-highest average of any team in March Madness
UConn is 18-0 this season when scoring over 80 points and has done so three times this tournament
UConn has made 50 three-pointers in the tournament, one of nine teams to do so in a single tournament since 2015; of the previous eight teams to do so in that span, four of them won the title — including three of the last four tournament winners
UConn's Adama Sanogo is the fourth player to average 20 points per game on 65% shooting in the tournament and make the national title game over the last 40 years; he's the first to do so since Corliss Williamson in 1994

Take the Under as long as San Diego State is playing

While the Aztecs' streak of hitting the Under ended against Florida Atlantic, the numbers still point towards taking the Under in the national championship game. San Diego State has hit the Under in 22 of 37 games this year (one push) — a whopping 59.5% Under rate. Brian Dutcher's squad had hit the under the number in 12 straight games prior to their Final Four victory.

UConn's Over/Under rate is pretty even, as they've hit the Under in 18 of 38 games- or 47.4% of their games in the 2022-23 campaign.

The Under has also performed well in recent title games, hitting in 11 of the last 17 national championships (64.7%).

Can the Aztecs break the West Coast curse?

Not only is San Diego State the first Mountain West team ever to make both the Final Four and national championship, but it is also the first team from California to make the title game since the UCLA Bruins in 2006.

Here's a list of "firsts" the Aztecs are trying to accomplish:

With a win, would be the first team from the Pacific or Mountain time zone to win the title since the Arizona Wildcats in 1997
With a win, would be the first team from California to win the title since UCLA in 1995
With a win, would be the first 5-seed ever to win the title
With a win, would be the first Mountain West team ever to win the title (UNLV Rebels were in Big West conference in its lone title year)

Experience matters in the national championship

As mentioned earlier, UConn will be making its fifth appearance in the national championship, while San Diego State will be making its debut. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this will be the 13th instance of a national title game featuring one team with previous championship game experience going against a team with none.

Surprisingly, the schools that have been to the title game prior are just 7-5 SU (58.3%) in that span. However, the more experienced school has won four straight championships in this situation and five of the past six since the 2000 NCAA Tournament.

The only team to lose was Indiana in 2002- as 7.5-point underdogs against a loaded Maryland squad, as shown above.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to FOX Bet and place some wagers on the national championship!

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