College Basketball

2023 NCAA Final Four odds: Bettors heavily back UConn, sportsbooks need Miami

Updated Mar. 31, 2023 3:13 p.m. ET

A couple of weeks ago, March Madness odds had a very different look to them. Whether you’ve bet on games or championship futures or popped a few dollars into office bracket pools, it’s pretty likely you didn’t foresee this Final Four on the Big Dance floor.

Gone are all four No. 1 seeds, with none getting further than the Sweet 16. Gone are all four No. 2s and all four No. 3s, as well. UConn is the highest remaining seed, at No. 4, followed by two No. 5s in Miami and San Diego State, and upstart No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.

It makes for an intriguing final weekend of NCAA Men's Tournament betting.

Let’s check in with oddsmakers and see how things are shaping up for Saturday in Houston.

UConn Sucks Up Oxygen

It’s always refreshing when the bookmakers provide an uncanned comment, something you wouldn’t normally hear. When it comes to Saturday’s second semifinal between Miami and UConn, WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson did just that.

"We need Miami like we need air, so that’s what we’re looking forward to. We’re going to be rooting for the underdogs," Pearson said. "We’re pretty lopsided on UConn. It’s basically our worst decision right now."

The Huskies were briefly 5-point favorites when the game opened Sunday night. Within a few minutes, Connecticut moved to -5.5, and the line hasn’t budged since.

On the spread, the Huskies are getting 67% of tickets and 72% of money at WynnBet. Moneyline bettors — customers just wagering on who wins the game, regardless of score — are also on UConn, which at -250 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $14 total) is getting 56% of tickets/71% of money.

But moneyline play has begun to level off for Saturday’s 8:49 p.m. ET tipoff.

"Right now, we’re seeing a lot of two-way on the moneyline," Pearson said Wednesday night, noting interest in Miami +200 (+180 at FOX Bet). "I think the Hurricanes are going to be a popular ‘dog, but it’s going to be tough to [overcome] all that UConn money we have already."

WynnBet also has liability to Connecticut in the championship futures market.

"We’re looking to dodge the UConn Huskies at all costs," Pearson said. "San Diego State looks to be our best result to take the whole thing."

SATURDAY'S SEMIFINAL GAMES

At Houston, all times ET

No. 9 Florida Atlantic (35-3) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (31-6), 6:09 p.m., CBS

Point spread: San Diego State -2 (San Diego State favored to win by more than 2 points, otherwise Florida Atlantic covers)
Moneyline: San Diego State -143 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $16.99 total); Florida Atlantic +110 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Total scoring over/under: 132 points scored by both teams combined

No. 4 UConn (29-8) vs. No. 5 Miami (29-7), 8:49 p.m., CBS

Point spread: UConn -5.5 (UConn favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Miami covers)
Moneyline: UConn -250 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $14 total); Miami +180 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $28 total)
Total scoring over/under: 150 points scored by both teams combined

It’s Never Under Til It’s Over

In Saturday’s first semifinal, a 6:09 p.m. ET tip, Pearson and the WynnBet risk room are more focused on the total. And with good reason. San Diego State’s vaunted defense has helped the Under cash in the Aztecs’ past 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Under is 5-2 in Florida Atlantic’s seven postseason games this month.

WynnBet was very briefly at its 132 opener Sunday evening before going to 131.5, and total remains at 131.5.

"We’re trying to stay as low as possible," Pearson said. "Outside of that FAU-Kansas State game, where Kansas State likes to get its competitors to run, the FAU games against Tennessee and Memphis were very low-scoring. So we’re going to be looking for a very low-scoring affair in that San Diego State-FAU game."

To Pearson’s point, the Owls edged K-State 79-76, with the Over hitting in a game with a 144 total (155). But FAU’s NCAA Tournament-opening 66-65 win over Memphis fell miles short of the 151 total (131). And although the FAU-Tennessee total was a tidy 129.5, the two teams combined for just 117 points in the Owls’ 62-55 win.

So far at WynnBet, bettors are leaning toward the Over, which is getting 60% of tickets but just 53% of money.

FOX Bet Wants Upsets

This tournament has been rife with underdogs winning. It began in the first round when No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson and No. 15 Princeton – among others – scored victories and continued right through to the Elite Eight. As noted above, there’s not a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed in the field, and you’ve still got a No. 9 seed alive in FAU.

If FOX Bet gets its way, the Final Four underdogs – Florida Atlantic and Miami – will keep it going.

"We would love to see the upsets to continue," FOX Bet trader Tieme Wesselink said. "It has been a very kind tournament for our book so far. It’s the first time since 2011 that we don’t have a No. 1 seed in Final Four. When I add that this is the first Final Four without a top-3 seed, it will tell you all you need to know about the type of tournament the books have had."

In the championship futures market, FOX Bet has UConn the -138 favorite, followed by San Diego State (+333), Miami (+450) and Florida Atlantic (+500).

The favored Huskies are the largest title liability for FOX Bet. The book is also rooting against a championship game result of UConn over FAU, due to liability on the prop bet of exact outcome of the title game. The prop on who is named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player is also getting attention.

"We have seen the most action on FAU point guard Johnell Davis. Before [the Owls’] Elite Eight game, he was available at +3000, and he’s currently +1400," Wesselink said.

UConn’s Adama Sanogo is the +270 favorite to win tournament MOP honors, followed by teammate Jordan Hawkins at +333. No other player is shorter than +1200.

Surfin’ (Conference) USA

It’s been a pretty solid postseason for Conference USA teams. Florida Atlantic is obviously carrying the big banner in the Big Dance, but C-USA is also racking up success in the secondary tourneys. Can FAU do likewise?

"I don’t know if anybody is watching those NIT games, but North Texas and UAB are in the NIT championship," Pearson said, alluding to Thursday night’s all-C-USA final in Las Vegas. "Charlotte won its respective championship in the CBI. It’s hard to not see FAU in the national championship game, to round out Conference USA.

"I think FAU could make it. It’s a coin flip, but every time I pick against San Diego State, it goes pretty badly."

It is indeed a coin flip, with the Owls mere 2-point underdogs to the Aztecs.

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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Let’s be clear, I also like small bets quite a bit. And small wagers with potential big returns are always intriguing. A customer of Caesars Sports is hopefully about to recognize that prospect.

Back in December, the bettor — who lives in Illinois — made three bets for $100 apiece on Florida Atlantic to win the national championship. The odds for each bet were a whopping +250000. The bettor then took a fourth $100 bite of the apple at +50000 odds.

So if Florida Atlantic wins out Saturday and Monday, that bettor will profit a massive $800,000 on a $400 investment.

A couple of other small championship futures bets at Caesars that could pay out big as March Madness comes to a close:

$1,000 on Miami +25000, placed nearly a year ago, on April 2 (potential profit $250,000)
$500 on Miami +25000, placed on April 26 (potential profit $125,000)
$300 on FAU +250000, placed on Dec. 7 (potential profit $75,000)

On the big-bet ledger at Caesars, these championship tickets are still quite live:

$25,000 on UConn +2000 (potential profit $500,000)
$20,000 on Miami +1500 (potential profit $300,000)
$15,000 on FAU +2000 (potential profit $300,000)
$15,000 on FAU +1300 (potential profit $195,000)
$15,000 on San Diego State +950 (potential profit $142,500)

All four Final Four teams are represented in that big-bet batch. So someone is going to have a nice cashout come Monday night.

Personally, I’ve got #ChilisMoney on San Diego State at +4500. But I’ve got to admit, I’m rooting for that bettor with the four $100 plays on the Owls. May the Final Four bring some luck your way, as well.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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