College Basketball

2023 NCAA Tournament: 10 early March Madness betting thoughts

Updated Mar. 14, 2023 7:54 p.m. ET

Let the madness begin!

The field is all set for the 2023 NCAA Men's Tournament, and the opening-round betting lines are finally starting to settle after about two hours of the Don Best odds screen getting lit up like a Christmas tree.

I’ll be posting my favorite first-round plays in the coming days here on FOX Sports, but first, I wanted to hit you with some initial leans, market moves and general thoughts on the best damn betting event in America.

Here are my 10 early thoughts for March Madness.

1. The Mizzou-Utah State total still isn’t high enough

The total opened at 152.5 offshore, and it appears to have settled in the states around 154.5. To be honest, it’s still probably too low. These two squads have the ammunition to reach the 80s with ease, and I’m not counting out an 87-84 final for one second. Both teams are uber efficient from 2 and 3, and neither one is spectacular on the defensive side of the ball.

2. Respected bettors dig Iona and Kent State

Both underdogs got slammed right away. One American sportsbook opened Iona as an 11-point underdog against UConn. Spoiler: It didn’t last long. Most shops are currently dealing UConn -8.5 or -9, and that’s a notable move against a solid Huskies team. Meanwhile, the South Point in Las Vegas opened Kent State +5 against Indiana, which is clearly respect for the underdog. Well, now the market’s painted Kent State +4. Bark, bark, bark.

3. Everything Grand Canyon does, Gonzaga does better

March Madness legend Bryce Drew has done a whale of a job at Grand Canyon this year, but he’s basically facing Grand Canyon on steroids in the first round. Gonzaga’s offense is insanely effective when it’s rolling and this is truly a horrendous matchup for the defenseless Antelopes. I’m laying the two touchdowns in a game that has all the makings of a 20-point victory.

4. Don’t be surprised if Purdue is bounced early

I’ve been talking about this since January. And after watching Purdue nearly blow a 17-point lead Sunday against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship, I feel even better about it. Wooden award front runner Zach Edey is a special college player, but Memphis’ physical front court could really be a problem. DeAndre Williams (6-9, 205) and Malcolm Dandridge (6-9, 260) have the length and strength to make Edey uncomfortable.

5. Tom Izzo > Andy Enfield

Simple. Don’t overthink this one.

6. What a draw for Marquette

The white-hot Golden Eagles drew the weakest No. 1 [Purdue] and No. 3 [Kansas State] seeds, and assuming they get by Vermont and Michigan State, the East could really open up. I’ve always been a fan of Shaka Smart in NCAA Tournament play, and this is easily the best team he’s ever coached. I don’t hate a bet on Marquette to make the Final Four at +420. Not one bit.

7. I’ll likely turn on my bracket by Saturday

This is inevitable. It’s been a yearly tradition to fill out a bracket — one bracket only — since I was about nine years old. That said, I’ll flip on that thing like you wouldn’t believe. Two years ago, my bracket had Illinois making the Final Four, but when the Illini met Loyola in the Round of 32, I bet Ramblers +7 hand over fist. It’s important to separate church [bracket] and state [bets] when you’re betting on the tourney because matchups are everything.

8. The Zags are a sleeping giant out West

Back to Gonzaga. After four straight years of being a No. 1 seed, the Zags are sneaky underrated in this tournament. Analytics wizard Ken Pomeroy believes Gonzaga has the best offense in the entire country, and after it smashes Grand Canyon and likely TCU, odds are good it’ll face UCLA in the Sweet 16. With no Jaylen Clark and maybe no Adem Bona, the Bruins might be down two of their best defenders. Not ideal. A Kansas-Gonzaga regional final would be legit.

9. Know when to flip on the public darling

This is one of the most important lessons in the NCAA Tournament. Beware of that super-popular underdog in the second weekend. Whether it’s St. Peter’s last year or LaSalle 10 years ago, every dog has its day in March. Don’t be late to the party and fall for the No. 11 seed catching 12 points in the Sweet 16 against a blue blood. It probably won’t end well.

10. I’m sticking with Texas to win it all

I made a futures bet on the Longhorns in late November, and I’m still bullish they have the goods to make it to Houston.

Departed coach Chris Beard ain’t walking through that door, but sure-handed senior guard Marcus Carr is. He’s the type of player you want with the ball in the final minutes. Texas combines efficient offense with suffocating defense, and the Horns can beat anybody with their "A" game. Just ask Kansas. I’m happy to roll with what I believe is the best team from the best conference. Hook ‘em.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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