2024 College Basketball odds: 'It's time to buy low' on Kentucky Wildcats
The first round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament starts a month from Wednesday, and odds are many of you still haven’t placed a futures bet.
You were probably too busy betting college football and the NFL, while also guiding your fantasy football team to another deep postseason run, to pay any attention to the college hoops landscape.
Don’t worry, it’s okay.
Your best title prices are long gone on teams like Connecticut (+500) and Purdue (+700), two surefire No. 1 seeds that will be extremely popular on Selection Sunday when millions of Americans start filling out brackets.
It’s also worth remembering the Huskies and Boilermakers were as high as 11-1 and 16-1, respectively, heading into the season. Not only is telling you to bet one of those teams a cop out, it’s not price sensitive at all.
Houston (+900) is another single-digit juggernaut, while Arizona (+1200) and Tennessee (+1300) are both very solid teams that check plenty of analytical boxes. You honestly can’t go wrong with a pop on any of those three squads.
However, I want you to dig deeper and buy a sleeper at a great price.
The Kentucky Wildcats (+3000) are a polarizing group this year. They’re as talented as any team in the country, but they’ve battled issues with youth, injuries and defensive intensity. Also, head coach John Calipari hasn’t guided the ‘Cats to a Final Four since 2015, which lessens the appetite, too.
Truth be told, I don’t give a damn what Kentucky did in 2018 or 2021 because it has nothing to do with the current club. And this team possesses what those teams didn’t: four first-round draft picks and three seven-footers.
Freshman bucket getter Rob Dillingham and his sharpshooting classmate Reed Sheppard are locks to be lottery picks this summer. Those two, along with senior Antonio Reeves, lead an offense that ranks eighth in the country in efficiency and shoots 41% from three, second-best in America.
Simply put, Kentucky can literally score with anybody.
But can the ‘Cats get stops?
If you asked me three weeks ago, I would’ve been skeptical. Calipari was still figuring out his rotations and begging his players to play with physicality. Hell, Florida and Tennessee rolled into Lexington and dropped 94 and 103 points in back-to-back games, the obvious low point of Kentucky’s season.
Then, starting point guard D.J. Wagner returned to the fold and Cal thrust seven-footer Ugonna Onyeso into more minutes. And with that, Wagner’s steady hands (only 34 turnovers in 21 games) and Onyeso’s shot-altering ability (50 blocks in 16 games) were on full display in Kentucky’s dominant win at No. 13 Auburn.
The Tigers were bamboozled from the tip and looked almost surprised that Kentucky made them work for every inch. Auburn didn’t even crack the 60-point mark and was dealt its first loss of the season at Neville Arena.
It was a tough look for the "Kentucky doesn’t play defense" crowd.
If the Wildcats can build on Saturday’s intensity at Auburn and Calipari solidifies the rotations over the next three weeks, this team is good enough to string together four wins in the tournament. It’s also worth noting the Cats’ have a full cast of characters for the first time this season.
The bet to fire now is Kentucky to make the 2024 Final Four. You can find +650 in the market and I think a national title flier at 30-1 is a decent bet, too, considering the Wildcats’ potential.
At the end of the day, both those prices are better than the ones you could’ve grabbed back in November.
It's time to buy low on Big Blue Nation.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
