2024 College Basketball odds: Purdue title 'worst-case scenario' for one book
With the NFL finally off the sports betting radar, March Madness odds step to the forefront.
And while Purdue appears poised to be an NCAA Tournament force, it's fair to say the Boilermakers are like the cliché description for the month of March: in like a lion, out like a lamb.
In the past three NCAA tourneys, Purdue lost to teams seeded at least nine spots lower. The Boilermakers bottomed out last year when, as a No. 1 seed and 23.5-point first-round favorite, they tumbled to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson 63-58.
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Still, Purdue is on its way to another No. 1 seed, and college basketball bettors are unfazed by past performance.
"Purdue took a lot of money. The Boilermakers are very heavily backed and our worst-case scenario as of now," said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sports.
Pullen helps break down the current state of odds to win March Madness, and DraftKings Sportsbook chimes in with some interesting facts and figures, as well.
Hoping History Repeats
Back in 2017, Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament. And the Cavaliers didn't just lose, they got boat raced. Maryland-Baltimore County rolled to a shocking 74-54 upset as 20.5-point underdogs.
A year later, though, the Cavs again earned a No. 1 seed, and this time took advantage of it. Virginia reeled off six straight wins, beating Texas Tech 85-77 in overtime in the championship game.
So there's precedent for the Boilermakers this year.
"Purdue has been very popular. A lot of people are expecting what happened to Virginia," Pullen said. "But once the Boilermakers get into the tourney, will they be able to do what Virginia did? They haven't had the best tourney luck. So far, bettors are counting on Purdue to deliver."
That includes one Caesars customer in Nevada, who on Feb. 15, put $20,000 on Purdue +700 to win the title. If the Boilermakers lift the trophy, that would lead to a profit of $140,000, for a total payout of $160,000.
Steady But Still Susceptible
Back on April 3, Purdue opened as the +2200 co-seventh choice on Caesars' March Madness oddsboard. As the 2023-24 season unfurls, the Boilermakers have generally been dominant, with a host of quality wins. In the late-November Maui Invitational, Purdue dumped Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette on back-to-back-to-back nights.
The Boilermakers also topped Alabama and highly touted Arizona in December. And Purdue has generally had its way with the Big Ten. But the Boilermakers went to Ohio State as 7.5-point favorites and left with a 73-69 loss on Sunday.
Still, Matt Painter's squad is 23-3 and is the +700 choice to win the national title.
"Every week, there are so-called upsets. Every game at this stage means more and more," Pullen said in pointing out how the public betting masses are often influenced by just one bad game.
But that's not the case with Purdue, as he reiterated, nor with UConn, which was just dealt an 85-66 road shellacking by Creighton on Tuesday.
"Right now, Purdue is very popular, UConn is very popular. UConn is getting more action at this point," he said.
That's no surprise. The Huskies won the national championship last year, beating San Diego State 76-59 in the final. UConn followed up by going 24-3 so far this season and is Caesars' +450 favorite to repeat as champion after opening as the +1200 favorite in April.
On Feb. 19, a Caesars customer wagered $9,000 on UConn +550 to win March Madness. Should the Huskies repeat, that bettor will profit $49,500, for a total payout of $58,500.
"UConn is far and away the best team right now. But I can see anything happening," Pullen said.
Praising Arizona
While probable No. 1 seed Purdue is problematic for Caesars, another potential No. 1 seed has the book's rooting interest. Arizona (20-5) beat Duke on the road, Alabama and Michigan State at neutral sites, and is on a six-game win streak.
"Arizona would be best for us, among teams at the top of the oddsboard," Pullen said.
The Wildcats opened +2000 and are now the +900 co-third choice, along with Houston.
But as Pullen cautions — and as Purdue and others certainly know from first-hand experience — March Madness is volatile. Yes, a familiar name in UConn won it all last season, but recall that the Final Four was filled out by San Diego State, Florida Atlantic and Miami.
Seton Hall is a hefty +30000 long shot, and yet, "Seton Hall is one of the [three] teams that has beaten UConn this year," Pullen said.
Indeed, the Pirates notched a 75-60 win as 8-point home underdogs to UConn on Dec. 20.
Pullen also thinks dark horses Saint Mary's (+7000), FAU (+10000) and a more familiar face in Michigan State (+6000) could get back in the mix.
"Michigan State was in every preseason top five. You just can't count out the Spartans, with the way Tom Izzo can do the right things at tournament time," Pullen said. "It's wide open, and anything can happen."
Counting On Kentucky
Meanwhile, at DraftKings Sportsbook, customers are seriously leaning into a somewhat erratic Kentucky squad. Back on Dec. 2, the Wildcats (18-7) were 18.5-point home favorites against UNC-Wilmington and lost 80-73. The ‘Cats recently went on a 2-4 slide that included home losses — all as favorites — to Florida, Tennessee and Gonzaga.
However, Kentucky rebounded with two wins, including a 70-59 road victory over an Auburn team that DraftKings has at +1800 to win the championship, the co-sixth choice with North Carolina.
DK has Kentucky at +2500 in March Madness futures odds, and 25% of all NCAA championship money is on the Wildcats. That's almost 2.5 times more money than second-place Kansas (+2000). Kentucky also leads the championship ticket count at DraftKings, though the Jayhawks aren't too far behind at No. 2.
Among the Kentucky bets is a $3,000 wager at +2500 on Feb. 19. If John Calipari steers his team to the title, that bettor would profit $75,000, for a total payout of $78,000.
Likewise, Kansas drew a $3,000 bet on Feb. 19 at +2000, for a potential profit of $60,000 and total payout of $63,000.
Meanwhile, Purdue (+700) is No. 3 in DraftKings' ticket count, followed by favorite UConn (+500). The Boilermakers and Huskies are tied for third in championship money.
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I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
DraftKings hasn't noted any five-figure March Madness futures bets. But along with the aforementioned Kentucky and Kansas plays, there are a couple more four-figure wagers that would pay nicely:
- $4,733.41 on Purdue +900, to profit $42,600.69, for a total payout of $47,334.10
- $3,000 on Arizona +1100, to profit $33,000, for a total payout of $36,000
Then there are a couple of low-dollar bets at long-shot odds. The first came way back in April, $100 on Dayton +30000. The Flyers are now much shorter at +8000. A championship is unlikely, but if it happened, that $100 bet would net a $30,000 profit.
And in November, a DraftKings customer put $250 on Iowa State +8000, to win $20,000. The Cyclones (20-6) are having a bang-up season and are now the +2000 co-eighth choice at DK.
Caesars Sports took a $10,000 Iowa State bet at +2800, which would profit a hefty $280,000 if the Cyclones go the distance. And Caesars took a couple long-shot flier bets, too:
- $700 on Indiana State +100000 (that's 1000/1), to profit $750,000.
- $1,000 on SMU +75000, to profit $750,000.
That SMU bet just landed on Feb. 19. The Indiana State wager came on Dec. 16, and while the Sycamores remain a significant long shot, their odds are now +30000 at Caesars.
Obviously, it's extremely unlikely that either team gets anywhere near the championship game on April 8 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. But nothing would surprise Pullen.
"It's who gets hot for those six games," he said. "Judging by the Final Four last year, you could see a similar thing this year."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
