2024 March Madness betting preview: 'People think Kansas is ripe for an upset'
March Madness odds are on the front burner and heating up nicely as the Thursday/Friday first-round games approach tipoff. With 16 games each day, the public betting masses are already eagerly firing away.
"People are definitely ready for the NCAA Tournament," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said.
The massive Thursday/Friday schedule is almost an overload for bettors as they try to figure out where to put their hard-earned dollars. But a couple of games definitely stand out.
Magee serves up his insights on those matchups in the NCAA Tournament first-round odds market.
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Self Doubts
Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks are perennial national championship contenders. But they don’t look as good this year, and they enter the NCAA Tournament shorthanded.
On Tuesday, the team announced that leading scorer Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee) will not play in the NCAA Tourney.
Kansas (22-10) is the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region and meets No. 13 seed Samford (29-5) on Thursday night. BetMGM opened the Jayhawks as 8.5-point favorites and got as low as -6.5 Tuesday night after the McCullar news. Kansas is now -7.5, but bettors are much more enthused about the little-known underdog.
"It’s one-way traffic on Samford. It seems like people think Kansas is ripe for an upset," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said. "McCullar being out is clearly moving some people. Kansas playing poorly of late is also moving people."
Bettors are not only playing Samford on the point spread, but on the moneyline as well. The underdog Bulldogs are +260 to pull the outright upset, meaning a $100 bet would profit $260 for a $360 total payout.
Gone Wisconsin
In Friday’s NCAA Tournament First Round odds, a 12-seed vs. 5-seed matchup is getting a lot of looks at BetMGM: James Madison vs. Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (21-13) is the No. 5 seed in the South Region. But much like that Samford-Kansas game, bettors are nonplussed by the Badgers, going all in on the Dukes (30-3). Magee wasn’t surprised at all.
"As soon as I saw this game revealed on the selection show, I knew this was an upset the public would hammer. And they have," he said.
BetMGM opened Wisconsin at -4.5 and is actually up to -5.5. But as of Wednesday afternoon, James Madison is taking 81% of spread tickets and 74% of spread money. And on the moneyline, the percentages are even more lopsided toward the underdog: 93% of tickets and 92% of dollars are on a James Madison outright upset.
"We’re gonna need Wisconsin to win outright and hopefully cover the 5.5," Magee said.
Built for the Futures
Throughout the season, Magee noted that Kentucky was a significant liability in BetMGM’s March Madness championship odds market. As the tourney commences, a Wildcats title is the worst outcome in BetMGM’s national digital wagering (mobile/online betting).
After last year’s NCAA Tournament, won by UConn, Kentucky opened as the +1400 co-third choice in odds to win the 2024 NCAA Tourney. The Wildcats were a bit erratic throughout the season, and they’ve fallen back to the +2500 co-ninth choice, joined by Marquette and Creighton.
But many BetMGM customers still believe John Calipari’s talented squad can make a run. Kentucky is taking the third-most tickets and money.
BetMGM is also rooting against North Carolina – the +1300 fifth choice to win it all – and UConn, the +350 favorite to repeat as national champion.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
