College Basketball

2024 March Madness betting report: 'It doesn’t look like anyone can beat UConn'

Updated Apr. 5, 2024 4:49 p.m. ET

As the March Madness odds market bleeds into April for the Final Four, bettors are eager to continue riding the UConn train. And who can blame them?

Across the 2023 and 2024 NCAA Tournaments, the Huskies are 10-0 straight up (SU) and 10-0 against the spread (ATS). The defending national champions are the ATM of postseason college basketball betting.

"It doesn’t look like anyone can beat UConn," BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said Thursday night. "But stranger things have happened."

Oddsmakers far and wide are generally rooting for stranger things to happen this weekend at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Shelton helps dive into odds and action for the Final Four.

Staying On UConn

No. 1 seed Connecticut isn’t just winning and covering the spread. The Huskies are covering the spread with ease. During the 10-game NCAA Tournament win streak, they’ve not only won by double digits every time but have beaten the spread by double digits eight times.

In Saturday’s semifinal against No. 4 seed Alabama, UConn is an 11.5-point favorite at BetMGM. If form holds, not only will the Huskies win but will do so by 22 points or more. The public betting masses are already convinced UConn will cover in this 8:49 p.m. ET tipoff.

"It’s almost exactly 2/1 tickets UConn, and money is running 4/1 on UConn," Shelton said of early point-spread action in BetMGM’s Las Vegas market. "But they are playing Alabama moneyline. Almost every bet on the moneyline is on Alabama."

That’s mostly public bettors, as well, attracted by the Crimson Tide’s +525 odds to pull an outright upset of the UConn freight train. A $100 bet would profit $525 — for a $625 total payout — if Alabama does the unthinkable on Saturday night.

If betting continues on this track, Shelton said BetMGM Nevada will be rooting for UConn to win and Alabama to cover the spread.

"That’s got a reasonably good chance of happening," Shelton said.

Or at least he hopes so.

Life’s Great at NC State

North Carolina State is the tournament’s Cinderella story. Prior to the conference tournaments, there was virtually no chance the Wolfpack would earn an NCAA Tournament bid. But they went out and won five games in five days to claim the ACC championship, and they’ve done nothing but continue to win since then.

N.C. State is on a 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS tear. And while public bettors enjoy backing dominant favorites such as UConn, they also like a good underdog story, particularly in the March Madness odds market. Charismatic forward DJ Burns has helped make the Wolfpack wildly popular over the past three-plus weeks.

Bettors are flocking to N.C. State in all ways for Saturday’s 6:09 p.m. ET tipoff vs. No. 1 seed Purdue. The Wolfpack are 9.5-point underdogs and are +350 on the moneyline.

"I saw several big bets on N.C. State moneyline today," Shelton said Thursday night. "Moneyline action is almost 100% on N.C. State. On the spread, it’s 3/1 tickets and 6/1 money on N.C. State."

N.C. State-Purdue action at BetMGM in Vegas is mirroring what the sportsbook is seeing across the country. Nationally, spread tickets and money are running 3/1 on the Wolfpack at BetMGM, and moneyline tickets and dollars are 9/1-plus on the underdog to pull off the outright upset.

Ideal Outcome

Even though UConn is a liability for BetMGM Nevada, Shelton said the book would still like to see a showdown of No. 1 seeds —Purdue vs. Connecticut — in Monday night’s championship game. Such a matchup would generate tremendous betting interest, with the book hoping Purdue can take down the defending national champion.

"Purdue-UConn would be a really good final," Shelton said. "And I’m told that for BetMGM nationally, N.C. State is really bad in the futures market. So getting rid of N.C. State would be a bonus."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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