Bubble Watch 2024: 10 teams that need a strong finish to make the NCAA Tournament
Teams are running short on opportunities.
We’ve reached the stage in the TV cooking show when the chefs are about to submit their dishes in the competition, but only have an hour left to prepare the meal and somehow are missing one of the essential ingredients in the recipe.
That’s my thought process with where we stand in "Bubble Watch 2024", except it seems like at the moment, many of the teams on the bubble are having trouble finding that key ingredient — or in other words, the signature win — to push them ahead of the pack and officially punch a ticket to the big dance.
Wednesday night at 6:30 p.m. ET on FS1, there’s a game in New Jersey between Seton Hall and Villanova that I firmly believe will result in the winner hearing its name called on Selection Sunday. We also have a Michigan State team playing with some fire and hosting an NCAA Tournament-bound Northwestern squad on Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
I’ll explain where these teams stand at the moment in our capsules below.
Let’s dive into bubble watch!
1. Michigan State (17-12 – NET: 22)
Let’s lead off with the Spartans, because some of you may be questioning why I am including them in bubble watch. The overall record isn’t particularly pretty, but an overall strength of schedule of 8 according to KenPom is why this team is still a 9-seed in Mike DeCourcy’s latest forecast. That being said, it is critical for Michigan State to win a game this week and avoid a 9-11 Big Ten record. The Spartans have lost three in a row and the offensive inconsistencies beyond Tyson Walker and Malik Hall continue to be a concern. After playing Northwestern at home on Wednesday, the Spartans head to Assembly Hall to visit a sub-100 Indiana team on Sunday. I know the Hoosiers aren’t anything spectacular this year, but being in a "you’d really like to have it" game in Bloomington as a visitor isn’t ideal. Sparty: get one this week to avoid the siren sounding entering the Big Ten Tournament.
2. St. John's (17-12 — NET: 38)
It’s amazing in a lot of ways. Two weeks after Rick Pitino put his players on blast, criticizing their athleticism, the Johnnies have won four straight games and DeCourcy has them as one of his Last Four In currently.
The Johnnies own a combined nine quadrant 1 and 2 wins, with five of those coming in the top column. That résumé, including a marquee victory over Creighton two Sundays ago — combined with Villanova rising to No. 26 in the NET, is what’s allowed SJU to get back to the right side of the bubble. They’ve also won each of their last four games by an average of 19.8 points. What’s their path to cementing a bid? Beat Georgetown on Saturday at home, win a Big East Tournament first-round game, and beat Marquette, Seton Hall or Creighton in the quarterfinals. The Golden Eagles could be without Tyler Kolek, a complete game-changer for next week’s conference tournament (March 13-16 on FOX and FS1) if he can’t go for Shaka Smart’s team due to an oblique injury. St. John’s has not reached the Big East semifinals since 2000. Get there, and the Johnnies are locked into the dance. Fall short of that, and you’re subjected to bid-stealers.
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3. Virginia (21-9 — NET: 50)
Normally, you would look at that record associated with a Tony Bennett-coached team and think they’re locked in for the NCAA Tournament. But Virginia only owns two wins (Florida, Clemson) over the projected field of 68. I think they’re still safe now with a 6-3 record against quad 2 and a pair of quad 1 wins, with zero bad losses, but it would behoove UVA to beat Georgia Tech at home on Saturday night and avoid a quad 3 loss. If they drop that game, they could move from the Last Four In, to the First Four Out.
4. Seton Hall (18-11 — NET: 68)
One of the most puzzling teams in America, the Pirates own wins over Connecticut and Marquette, but did not move the needle at all in non-conference play, which is why they’re in this position entering Wednesday night. Seton Hall owns five quadrant 1 wins. If they get a sixth over Villanova on Wednesday, barring a massive slip-up to a winless DePaul team in the Big East on Saturday night, The Hall will have done enough in my opinion to make the tournament. DeCourcy does not have the Pirates in his Last Four In, which is interesting considering their low metrics, but a loss at home to the Wildcats would put the Pirates just on the wrong side of the picture in my estimation. If they lose to Villanova, a win in the 4-5 Big East Tournament Quarterfinal would be a MUST to be under consideration for a trip to Dayton for the First Four. One big note: no team in Big East history has ever missed the NCAA Tournament when going five-or-more games over .500 in conference play. A win Wednesday for SHU would all but clinch a 13-7 record in league play. The committee’s not turning that away.
5. Colorado (20-9 — NET: 30)
The Buffaloes are 16-1 at home with the only loss coming to Arizona. The issue: they’re 2-7 in road games and only own one quadrant 1 win. That victory is against a Washington team that is currently at 72 in the NET rankings, which means if the Huskies fall out of the top 75, it’s no longer a Q1 result. Thursday’s game is huge, and what I would consider to be a must-win, at Oregon. If the Buffaloes lose that game, the following one at Oregon State is a no-win situation and also a trap game. Tad Boyle’s group needs a 2-0 week and has to show it can win on the road in the process — or else.
6. Utah (18-11 — NET: 46)
The Utes are the last team in DeCourcy’s current forecast, and honestly, there are parts of their profile that I like over their Pac-12 comrade Colorado, because Craig Smith’s team owns four quadrant 1 wins and the Buffaloes only own one. But a home loss to Arizona State (NET: 124) and defeats to Washington and USC (all part of a 2-7 road record), are not helpful to their cause. The Utes do own a neutral site win over Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons have not exactly helped them out lately with three straight losses to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. Yes, sorry Wake fans, your bubble has popped.
For Utah, a road game at Oregon State on Thursday is an absolute must before they travel to Oregon. Will the Ducks take a loss this weekend? If they do, the winner of that one, whether it be the Buffaloes or Utes, will be feeling a lot better about their tournament chances.
7. Providence (19-11 — NET: 62)
How about the drama for this weekend on FOX Primetime Hoops? The Friars can punch their ticket to the dance with a win over UConn on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, FOX). The good news for first-year head coach Kim English: his team owns home wins over Creighton, Marquette and highly regarded Wisconsin (NET: 23), as well as road victories over Xavier and Seton Hall. There are two issues with the résumé: a 2-3 record against quadrant 2, and 10 wins over quad 4. The volume of bottom quadrant games is the tough part in a world where the committee looks into the intent of scheduling in your non-conference season. All this being said, if Providence can shock the Huskies on Saturday and seize the opportunity at Amica Mutual Pavilion, where they are 14-3 this season, they’re in the field regardless of what occurs at the Big East Tournament. Fun fact: Connecticut has not won in Rhode Island since returning to the Big East in 2020, boasting a 0-2 record.
8. Iowa (18-12 — NET: 56)
Like a normally reliable veteran horse that had been counted out yet emerges out of nowhere down the stretch, here comes Fran McCaffery and his Iowa Hawkeyes. Winners of four of their last five games, the Hawkeyes are up to a trio of quad 1 wins and a 5-3 record against quadrant 2. Their emergence, featuring wins over Wisconsin, at Michigan State and at Northwestern, is giving the committee a reason to consider them because they’re going away from Iowa City and finding ways to win. What’s next? A senior day gold-out game against Illinois on Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on FS1. I like the Hawkeyes to find a way and make things very, very interesting.
Villanova Wildcats vs. Providence Friars Highlights
9. Villanova (17-12 — NET: 26)
Kyle Neptune has saved his second season for now, and I believe the Wildcats just need one win this week to secure a bid. They have risen to the 11-line, not even in the Last Four In after Saturday’s gutsy 71-60 road win over Providence. Over the last six games, the Cats are 5-1 and picking up confidence, winning all five games by double-figures and seeing Justin Moore return closer to his normal form with four double-figure performances in this stretch. With four quad 1 wins, including the neutral site victory over North Carolina and a road dub over Creighton, the Cats are afloat with those marquee wins while also holding a trio of quad 3 losses. That’s what makes their résumé so confusing, as Villanova owns a 6-1 record against quad 2. After Seton Hall on Wednesday night, the Cats host Creighton on Saturday at
10. New Mexico (21-8 — NET: 28)
The Lobos would not be in bubble watch if they had not suffered the worst of the worst: a quad 4 loss! They dropped a home game to Air Force on Feb. 24 by a final score of 78-77. But when you have as many quadrant 3 and 4 losses (with a pair) as you have quadrant 1 wins, that could be problematic for Richard Pitino’s team. Here’s the good news: this year, the Mountain West provides no shortage of opportunities. That conference tournament in Las Vegas next week should be electric. New Mexico must beat lowly Fresno State on Wednesday at 10:30 p.m. ET on FS1 and then could really use a win at No. 22 Utah State on Saturday. If they lose to the Aggies, UNM will have work to do in the MWC Tournament, where they are currently slotted as the 6-seed.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on X at @John_Fanta.
