ACC preview: Duke's depth & talent put it at top of conference
Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.
These are the model’s projections for the ACC, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.
Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.
Player of the Year: Grayson Allen, Duke
Allen, our projected frontrunner for national player of the year, is the centerpiece of what looks like the nation’s best offense. We don’t expect his scoring average (which was at 21.6 ppg last season) to drop off much with the arrival of elite freshmen Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles III, either. Allen should play 30-plus minutes per game as Duke’s lead guard and regardless of who’s around him, he’ll always be the most efficient scoring option.
Newcomer of the Year: Dennis Smith Jr., NC State
Duke’s Tatum and Giles will give Smith some competition, but he’ll be dominating the ball for the Wolfpack, and we project him to average 15.4 points with a high rate of efficiency, along with 5.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds. Those are numbers reminiscent (and even a tad better) than what Chris Paul posted as a freshman point guard at Wake Forest in 2003–04.
All-Conference Team & Sixth Man
PG/SG: Grayson Allen, Duke
PG: Joel Berry, North Carolina
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., NC State
PF: Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson
PF: Zach LeDay, Virginia Tech
6th man: PF: Austin Nichols, Virginia
Projected Order of Finish
| Conference Rank | Team | Proj. Conf. Record | ’15-16 Conf. Record |
| 1 | Duke | 15–3 | 11–7 |
| 2 | North Carolina | 13–5 | 14–4 |
| 3 | Virginia | 13–5 | 13–5 |
| 4 | Louisville | 11–7 | 12–6 |
| 5 | Syracuse | 11–7 | 9–9 |
| 6 | NC State | 10–8 | 5–13 |
| 7 | Miami | 9–9 | 13–5 |
| 8 | Clemson | 9–9 | 10–8 |
| 9 | Virginia Tech | 9–9 | 10–8 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 9–9 | 11–7 |
| 11 | Florida State | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh | 8–10 | 9–9 |
| 13 | Wake Forest | 6–12 | 2–16 |
| 14 | Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 8–10 |
| 15 | Boston College | 2–16 | 0–18 |
The Skinny on Each Team
1. Duke (15–3)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Grayson Allen | Jr | PG/SG | 20.1 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 128.7 | 25% | 85% |
| Jayson Tatum | Fr | SF | 16.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 117.7 | 25% | 79% |
| Harry Giles | Fr | PF | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 120.7 | 22% | 63% |
| Luke Kennard | So | PG/SG | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 123.2 | 19% | 55% |
| Amile Jefferson | Sr | PF | 8.7 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 126.2 | 16% | 68% |
| Matt Jones | Sr | SG | 8.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 123.0 | 15% | 65% |
| Frank Jackson | Fr | PG/SG | 6.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 114.8 | 17% | 48% |
2. North Carolina (13–5)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Justin Jackson | Jr | SF | 13.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 125.1 | 22% | 74% |
| Joel Berry | Jr | PG | 13.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 123.1 | 20% | 78% |
| Kennedy Meeks | Sr | PF/C | 11.8 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 116.7 | 23% | 62% |
| Isaiah Hicks | Sr | PF | 11.7 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 120.7 | 22% | 59% |
| Tony Bradley | Fr | C | 7.6 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 118.4 | 16% | 55% |
| Nate Britt | Sr | PG | 7.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 111.1 | 20% | 48% |
| Theo Pinson | Jr | SF | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 114.5 | 18% | 55% |
3. Virginia (13–5)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Austin Nichols | Jr | PF | 13.8 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 107.7 | 25% | 71% |
| London Perrantes | Sr | PG | 11.8 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 116.9 | 21% | 79% |
| Isaiah Wilkins | Jr | PF | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 112.7 | 18% | 65% |
| Kyle Guy | Fr | SG | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 102.9 | 21% | 41% |
| Marial Shayok | Jr | SF | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 108.1 | 20% | 43% |
| Darius Thompson | Jr | PG | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 113.1 | 17% | 47% |
| Ty Jerome | Fr | PG | 5.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 109.9 | 19% | 40% |
4. Louisville (11–7)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Donovan Mitchell | So | SG/PG | 11.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 117.6 | 21% | 71% |
| Quentin Snider | Jr | PG | 11.8 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 117.4 | 20% | 81% |
| Deng Adel | So | SF | 11.0 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 109.3 | 19% | 75% |
| Tony Hicks | Sr | SG | 8.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 104.2 | 24% | 48% |
| Mangok Mathiang | Sr | PF | 7.4 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 111.1 | 20% | 51% |
| Raymond Spalding | So | PF | 7.0 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 115.5 | 19% | 47% |
| Jaylen Johnson | Jr | PF | 7.0 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 113.6 | 18% | 52% |
5. Syracuse (11–7)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Tyler Lydon | So | PF | 13.9 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 112.6 | 23% | 77% |
| Andrew White III | Sr | SF | 13.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 111.5 | 23% | 71% |
| John Gillon | Sr | PG | 10.4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 115.1 | 19% | 71% |
| Tyus Battle | Fr | SG | 9.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 106.4 | 18% | 71% |
| Tyler Roberson | Sr | PF | 8.8 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 113.7 | 19% | 70% |
| Paschal Chukwu | So | C | 5.8 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 107.9 | 19% | 41% |
| DaJuan Coleman | Sr | C | 5.4 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 108.2 | 19% | 41% |
6. NC State (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Dennis Smith Jr. | Fr | PG | 15.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 120.1 | 22% | 87% |
| Abdul-Malik Abu | Jr | PF | 12.9 | 7.9 | 1.2 | 113.9 | 25% | 67% |
| Maverick Rowan | So | SG | 12.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 111.6 | 19% | 74% |
| Terry Henderson | Sr | SG | 11.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 119.1 | 19% | 70% |
| Omer Yurtseven | Fr | C | 9.1 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 111.2 | 20% | 56% |
| Torin Dorn | So | G | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 108.1 | 20% | 43% |
| BeeJay Anya | Sr | C | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 109.3 | 14% | 48% |
7. Miami (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Ja'Quan Newton | Jr | PG | 15.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 109.3 | 27% | 79% |
| Davon Reed | Sr | SG | 12.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 120.2 | 19% | 73% |
| Bruce Brown | Fr | SG | 9.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 106.5 | 21% | 61% |
| Anthony Lawrence, Jr. | So | SF | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 123.2 | 18% | 62% |
| Dewan Huell | Fr | FC | 8.0 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 106.1 | 19% | 55% |
| Kamari Murphy | Sr | PF | 7.3 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 110.9 | 15% | 70% |
| Rashad Muhammad | Jr | SG | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 104.4 | 22% | 35% |
8. Clemson (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jaron Blossomgame | Sr | PF | 18.9 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 120.0 | 25% | 85% |
| Donte Grantham | Jr | SF | 10.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 112.2 | 18% | 81% |
| Avry Holmes | Sr | PG | 10.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 111.7 | 19% | 77% |
| Marcquise Reed | So | G | 9.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 107.3 | 21% | 55% |
| Elijah Thomas | So | PF | 7.4 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 99.5 | 20% | 32% |
| Sidy Djitte | Sr | C | 7.1 | 7.3 | 0.5 | 112.3 | 18% | 55% |
| Shelton Mitchell | So | PG | 5.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 102.8 | 20% | 56% |
9. Virginia Tech (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Zach LeDay | Sr | PF | 15.9 | 7.3 | 1.4 | 119.5 | 24% | 78% |
| Seth Allen | Sr | CG | 13.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 106.1 | 28% | 63% |
| Justin Bibbs | Jr | SG | 11.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 121.5 | 16% | 71% |
| Justin Robinson | So | PG | 9.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 112.6 | 19% | 71% |
| Chris Clarke | So | SF | 9.0 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 112.6 | 22% | 57% |
| Ahmed Hill | So | SG | 7.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 109.7 | 19% | 52% |
| Johnny Hamilton | Sr | C | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 109.3 | 16% | 32% |
10. Notre Dame (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| V.J. Beachem | Sr | SF | 16.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 121.4 | 20% | 83% |
| Bonzie Colson, Jr. | Jr | PF | 14.1 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 123.8 | 25% | 68% |
| Steve Vasturia | Sr | SG | 13.9 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 114.2 | 21% | 90% |
| Matt Ryan | So | SF | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 123.3 | 19% | 45% |
| Temple Gibbs | Fr | PG | 7.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 104.4 | 21% | 52% |
| Matt Farrell | Jr | PG | 5.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 106.7 | 17% | 53% |
| Rex Pflueger | So | SG | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 116.3 | 15% | 45% |
11. Florida State (8–10)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Dwayne Bacon | So | SF | 15.9 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 106.8 | 27% | 72% |
| Jonathan Isaac | Fr | SF | 12.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 116.7 | 21% | 69% |
| Xavier Rathan-Mayes | Jr | PG | 12.8 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 110.0 | 23% | 78% |
| Jarquez Smith | Sr | PF | 6.4 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 106.0 | 18% | 45% |
| Terance Mann | So | SG | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 114.1 | 16% | 51% |
| Phil Cofer | Jr | PF | 6.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 111.1 | 15% | 49% |
| Trent Forrest | Fr | SG | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 105.5 | 17% | 45% |
12. Pittsburgh (8–10)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Mike Young | Sr | PF | 17.3 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 119.3 | 26% | 76% |
| Jamel Artis | Sr | PG | 15.9 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 110.8 | 24% | 82% |
| Cameron Johnson | Jr | SG | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 115.3 | 18% | 70% |
| Sheldon Jeter | Sr | SF | 9.4 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 122.5 | 18% | 56% |
| Chris Jones | Sr | SF | 9.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 117.2 | 17% | 68% |
| Ryan Luther | Jr | SF | 5.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 117.9 | 17% | 38% |
| Damon Wilson | So | PG | 5.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 109.8 | 19% | 42% |
13. Wake Forest (6–12)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Bryant Crawford | So | PG | 15.6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 101.9 | 26% | 85% |
| John Collins | So | PF | 12.0 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 110.7 | 24% | 59% |
| Kostas Mitoglou | Jr | PF | 11.1 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 113.7 | 20% | 64% |
| Austin Arians | Sr | SF | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 105.6 | 18% | 53% |
| Keyshawn Woods | So | SG | 8.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 111.6 | 16% | 55% |
| Mitchell Wilbekin | Jr | SG | 7.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 112.9 | 14% | 64% |
| Doral Moore | So | C | 7.8 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 105.3 | 22% | 42% |
14. Georgia Tech (2–16)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Tadric Jackson | Jr | SG | 12.6 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 95.9 | 26% | 71% |
| Quinton Stephens | Sr | SF | 10.6 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 100.8 | 19% | 80% |
| Ben Lammers | Jr | C | 9.5 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 112.4 | 17% | 72% |
| Kellen McCormick | Sr | PF | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 102.4 | 21% | 47% |
| Josh Okogie | Fr | SG | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 93.5 | 20% | 45% |
| Josh Heath | Sr | PG | 6.2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 101.1 | 17% | 77% |
| Jodan Price | Sr | SF | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 89.5 | 20% | 44% |
15. Boston College (2–16)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jerome Robinson | So | PG | 12.2 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 94.8 | 24% | 75% |
| Connar Tava | Sr | SF | 11.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 103.7 | 24% | 70% |
| A.J. Turner | So | SF | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 100.9 | 17% | 71% |
| Johncarlos Reyes | So | PF/C | 6.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 94.3 | 18% | 49% |
| Garland Owens | Sr | SF | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 100.9 | 17% | 52% |
| Maurice Jeffers | Sr | PF | 5.1 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 89.5 | 20% | 47% |
| Jordan Chatman | So | SG | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 96.0 | 20% | 37% |
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