Arizona Basketball: Wildcats neck-and-neck with Oregon for top slot in Pac-12?
Can head coach Sean Miller finally take Arizona basketball to the Final Four?
With experience, depth and talent, the Oregon Ducks are the best team in the Pac-12 heading into the 2016-17 season.
If one team has the potential to challenge Dana Altman’s group, it’s the Arizona Wildcats.
The Wildcats finished 25-9 overall and 12-6 in the Pac-12 (3rd in the league) in 2015-16, but under their standards, they suffered through a down season. Their defensive was as impressive as year’s past, they lost to Oregon twice and failed to make it out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
So why was it a down year? Well, the Wildcats made the Elite Eight the two seasons prior to 2015-16.
And in 2016-17, Arizona has all the potential and talent to make it back to that stage once again.
Ryan Anderson, Gabe York and Kaleb Tarczewski aren’t walking through the door, but they return multiple key pieces.
The best of the bunch is shooting guard Allonzo Trier, who showed off terrific scoring instincts despite missing seven games with a broken hand. Dusan Ristic is a breakout candidate as he is expected to receive a significant boost in minutes and shot attempts. Guard Kadeem Allen is also back to provide ball handling and a defensive presence.
And don’t forget about Chance Comanche and Parker Jackson-Cartwright.
Arizona’s depth comes into play when talking about the newcomers. Head coach Sean Miller reeled in a four-man class and will get former four-star ESPN top 100 recruit (29th overall) Ray Smith back from an ACL tear.
In Arizona’s 2016 class, the Wildcats have commitments from five-star Finnish power forward Lauri Markkanen, five-star point guard Kobi Simmons, five-star small forward Rawle Alkins and JUCO product Keanu Pinder.
The Wildcats have just two seniors on their roster, so they won’t have the experience that the Ducks possess.
However, if everything breaks into form, Arizona could challenge the Ducks atop the Pac-12 and potentially find themselves in Phoenix for the Final Four.
Feb 27, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Sean Miller yells to his players during the first half against the Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
3. Are Lauri Markkanen and Ray Smith the keys to success up front?
Dusan Ristic is the most experienced front court player returning to Tucson. Rustic averaged 7.1 points, 3.8 boards and blocked 0.7 shots in 16.5 minutes per game last season. He shot 55 percent from the field and 38 percent from downtown.
With an uptick in minutes, Ristic should score more, rebound better and block more shots.
But Ristic cannot do it alone.
Without Ryan Anderson and Kaleb Tarczewski, the Wildcats are going to need more than one big man to provide a presence on the glass. They are going to need more than one scorer to provide a presence in the paint. And they are going to need more than one player to defend the rim.
Anderson was the team’s best rebounder and front court scorer last year, while Tarczewski was the best interior defender.
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Ristic can stretch the floor a bit (albeit not consistently), but he is not versatile enough to carry this team up front.
Enter five-star recruit Lauri Markkanen and former four-star recruit Ray Smith.
Markkanen is a special player, who can play both inside and out, grab rebounds and play quality minutes at both front court positions. Arizona’s best lineup could possibly come with the Finland native at the five position.
Despite being a freshman, the 6’11” big has played international basketball (Finland U-20 team this summer and U-18 last summer), so he has more game experience than a normal first year player.
Meanwhile, Smith was expected to play a big role last year for the Wildcats. Instead, he tore his ACL and missed the entire season. The 6’8″, 180 pound native of Las Vegas runs the floor like a gazelle and is a force on the offensive glass. He is a bit undersized for the power forward position, however, as we already know, modern basketball is trending towards ‘small ball.’
Smith can take defenders off the bounce on offense and is capable of defending both wing players and power forwards.
If Ristic makes a leap and Markkanen and Smith can be as good as expected, Arizona should be just fine up front on offense and on the glass.
The problem: they don’t have a true rim protector.
Mar 17, 2016; Providence, RI, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Gabe York (1) reacts after a loss to the Wichita State Shockers during the second half of a first round game of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Dunkin Donuts Center. Wichita State won 65-55. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
2. Will Arizona be a strong defensive team?
Sean Miller and Arizona are known for their defensive intensity.
However, the Wildcats gave up 69 points per game in 2015-16, which was only good for 102nd in the nation. Arizona also finished 21st in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
While that number looks excellent on the surface, Arizona finished second in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings in the two seasons before last year.
So where will the Wildcats rank in 2016-17?
We know that their offensive is likely to be potent. They have multiple weapons both on the perimeter and inside, should get easy buckets in transition because of their speed and have multiple future pros on the roster.
Regardless, if the Wildcats want to reach their first Final Four under Sean Miller, they have to be better defensively.
Arizona has Rawle Alkins and Kadeem Allen to lock up perimeter players and Dustin Ristic to block some shots on the interior, but they don’t have a true rim protector and their other pieces aren’t exactly lock down defenders.
Allonzo Trier and Kobi Simmons are offensive players first (although Simmons does have some potential defensively). Parker Jackson-Cartwright doesn’t have great size. Plus, Lauri Markkanen and Ray Smith will be a work in progress on that end of the floor.
Chance Comanche has the length and defensive instincts to be a solid shot blocker, but he only played six minutes last year.
On the bright side, Miller’s scheme is so good and has worked for so many years that this shouldn’t be overly concerning. As long as the Wildcats score points and play above average defense, their system will cover the lack of experience and occasional miscues.
Mar 17, 2016; Providence, RI, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Allonzo Trier (11) drives past Wichita State Shockers forward Markis McDuffie (32) during the first half of a first round game of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Dunkin Donuts Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
1. How does Arizona keep all their guards happy?
This is a good problem to have if your Sean Miller, but it’s something that needs to be solved.
The Wildcats have a plethora of talented guards who love to score with the ball in their hands.
It all starts with Allonzo Trier, who averaged 14.8 points per game last season and shot 47 percent from the field overall. He averaged just 1.1 assists and 1.9 turnovers per game in 2015-16.
Then there’s Kobi Simmons. He is a good passer with great vision, but he tends to look for his offense first and loves to have the ball in his hands due to his great ball handling skills.
Rawle Alkins uses his strength and power to overpower defenders on straight line drives from the wing.
Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Kadeem Allen are more of table setters, who can potentially balance out this issue. But do you really want Jackson-Cartwright and Allen to play hefty minutes in two guard sets?
To be fair, none of these players are selfish. They just tend to operate at their best when the offense is running through them.
Like I mentioned above, Simmons is a terrific passer. He should be the team’s starting point guard, so expect him to have the reins of the offense. He must find a balance between scoring and distributing. It’s not easy to find that balance but it will come with time and experience.
Arizona has a lot of new pieces, which means that it’s going to take months for chemistry to develop and for players to get comfortable play alongside one another.
Expect this to be solved as the team goes along as there is too much talent on this roster and Miller is too good of a coach for this to be a concern beyond non-conference play.
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