Big East men's basketball tiers: UConn, Marquette on top, Providence on the rise
Heading into Big East play on Tuesday night, ask anybody about the certainty in the league, and they would have answered the same thing:
The top-three teams in the conference, UConn, Marquette and Creighton, are really strong.
Just 48 hours later, that trio, which is collectively ranked in the top-12 of the AP Top 25 poll, has one thing in common: The Huskies, Golden Eagles and Bluejays are all 0-1 in Big East play.
The Big 12 is the strongest conference in college basketball. The SEC is high-level, and the ACC is improved. The Big Ten features the best player in the sport in Zach Edey of Purdue, as well as heavyweights in Illinois, Wisconsin and potentially Michigan State.
But there’s an authentic entertainment value within the Big East that is simply unmatched. The puzzling results can only be explained by the fact that these coaches and players know each other so well through the double round-robin schedule structure that it can lead to surprises. Look no further than Tuesday and Wednesday night’s results.
All UConn did in non-conference play was go 10-1, with every win coming by double figures, and the only blemish coming against No. 2-ranked Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. The Huskies were drubbed by a Seton Hall team that had nothing of significance on its season résumé to date. The Pirates didn’t just win on Wednesday night, they rolled over UConn, 75-60, marking the program’s largest margin of victory over a top-five team.
Meanwhile, in Omaha, No. 12 Creighton led Villanova, 41-27, three minutes into the second half. What proceeded to occur next was nothing short of shocking, with Eric Dixon going off for 32 points as the Wildcats outscored the Jays 41-25 the rest of the way. The game-winning bucket by Dixon in the final minute of overtime was nasty.
On Tuesday, the reigning Big East champions and Maui Invitational runner-up unfortunately got a harsh dose of reality. Providence locked up Marquette with hard-nosed, intense defense from the jump and Kim English’s Friars made a statement of their own with a 72-57 victory. The Golden Eagles own wins over No. 2 Kansas (neutral), No. 13 Illinois (road) and No. 19 Texas (home). They took No. 1 Purdue down to the wire in Honolulu. In all of those contests, Shaka Smart’s team clearly dictated the flow of the game for a long period of time.
On Tuesday night, at Amica Mutual Pavilion, Marquette never got comfortable. Smart’s team shot 4-for-20 from 3, begging the question if either shot selection must be better or if it’s a total lineup change, or a combo of both. On the other side, Devin Carter and Davonte Gaines broke out from the perimeter, combining for 10 triples.
This statement from Connecticut sophomore star Alex Karaban sums it up best:
So, after a wild, unpredictable couple of days to kick off Big East play, how do we differentiate these teams? I’ve broken the league’s 11 teams into five tiers. Here we go:
Tier 1: National title contenders
I am not going to jump ship on these two teams because they lost their conference openers on the road. A year ago, Marquette lost its Big East road opener at Providence in double overtime, 103-98. Following that defeat, the Golden Eagles proceeded to post a 19-2 record in their next 21 games to win the regular season and tournament titles in the league. What needs to change? For starters, Stevie Mitchell getting healthy would help. The junior has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, but is day-to-day and is progressing toward a return.
This team is also faced with the challenge of replacing Olivier-Maxence Prosper’s level of production with David Joplin, who has moved from the sixth man role at Marquette to starting power forward. In the Golden Eagles’ last two losses, Joplin is a combined 5-for-19 from the floor and 2-for-11 from 3. Lead guards Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones are both great, but in the gauntlet of this league, they need some help. Sophomores Chase Ross, Sean Jones and Ben Gold have to continue to step up, but more than anything, Oso Ighodaro can’t let his performance at Providence result in a multiple-game rut. The Marquette big man shot 2-for-6 in the contest with the Friars, with Josh Oduro shutting him down for the most part.
I’m not overreacting with Marquette, but some of those preseason questions surrounding Kolek and Jones getting consistent help are rising a bit.
Let’s turn to UConn. Up until Wednesday night, I genuinely thought the Huskies were the most complete team in America. One bad night – and yes, it was a rough evening according to Dan Hurley, should not cause panic.
The only significant concern is Donovan Clingan’s status after he suffered a sprained ankle in Wednesday’s game and didn’t play for the final 16 minutes. Hurley said the sophomore center's status is up in the air for Saturday’s FOX Primetime Hoops game against St. John’s (8 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). That’s a major storyline to monitor as the Huskies meet a Red Storm team headlined by senior big man Joel Soriano, who has posted four consecutive double-doubles, which is the second most in college hoops to only Edey over the last two seasons.
Seton Hall absolutely deserved to beat UConn. Hurley said it best: The Pirates "punked" his team. I also think the strain of playing on the road after a cross-country trip to play Gonzaga in Seattle on Friday contributed to the Huskies being a step slow all night. More than anything, Cam Spencer and Karaban shot 2-for-11 from 3-point land. The Huskies need at least one of those guys to be humming from downtown to give their offense good spacing.
Tier 2: Capable of March success
In my second tier, we have a pair of teams in the Wildcats and Bluejays who played an epic overtime thriller on Wednesday, but have been inconsistent overall. Villanova's win over Creighton – a four-seed in Mike DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast – is a massive victory for the Cats to put in their back pocket for the committee. To do it without superstar Justin Moore is even more telling. Villanova lost an OT thriller to Kansas State a couple of weeks ago. They avenged it with good late-game execution on Wednesday.
How concerned am I with Creighton? The Bluejays don’t feel connected right now, and there’s not much happening after their big three of Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Greg McDermott is a great coach who will figure some things out, but the Jays struggle to guard and point guard Steven Ashworth has not been what Ryan Nembhard was for this team last year when he was on.
As for Providence and Butler, we will find out who is better between the two of them when the Friars host the Bulldogs on Saturday (Noon ET, FS1).
First off, Providence has the best home-court advantage in the country. Over the last three years, the Friars own 40 home victories and are 45-3 in their last 48. No team in college hoops has more home wins in that span. The Friars are really, really tough defensively and their length is imposing to go up against. Carter is a winner, Bryce Hopkins just needs to play within himself, and Oduro has answered the bell on the interior.
I’ll be interested to see Thad Matta’s upstart team. The Bulldogs have hit 80 points eight times already this season after doing it six times all of last year. Will they be able to find a scoring rhythm against Providence’s physicality? With St. John’s transfer Posh Alexander leading the way, Butler’s biggest difference this year is it has a set-up man to get the ball to their main wing options in Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort. That experience, along with the fact these players are motivated to prove people wrong after transferring, is making this a really intriguing storyline in the Big East.
Tier 3: On the rise, but some questions remain
The third tier features a bit of a mystery trio, with all three teams showing some positive signs thus far. The Johnnies are 6-1 in their last seven games and have their biggest game to date on Saturday when they meet UConn. What stands out about the Red Storm is that they’re evolving defensively. They’ve gone from 127 to 73 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency in the last two games after an embarrassing loss to Boston College.
Pitino Chronicles: Rick Pitino on Providence and the Big East Conference
As for the Pirates, it all goes back to Kadary Richmond and this team's ability to muck it up, get others in foul trouble and put a lot of pressure on the rim. This is not a consistent perimeter shot-making team – they only took eight 3s against UConn. But being able to attack the rim and using their frame is a problem right now for opponents. I also think Jaden Bediako is as surprising of a transfer as any in the league, averaging 10 points and eight rebounds per game after coming over from Santa Clara.
Ironically, two of the three teams in this tier meet Saturday when Xavier hosts Seton Hall at 2 p.m. ET. Sean Miller was very complimentary of Pitino after his team’s 81-66 loss.
Xavier will be tough at home as usual, but the frontcourt is in for a long year. With Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter not in the lineup, it gives Miller a conundrum. Combine that with the fact that his team shot 4-for-21 from 3 at St. John’s, and I don’t see that happening again. Desmond Claude will look to bounce back Saturday after shooting 4-for-11 from the floor.
Tier 4: Rebuilding
It’s going to be a long year for the Hoyas, but their freshmen continue to get better and will be in a better place as a result of these growing pains. This Hoyas team needs to be hitting double-digit 3s to hang in with top-tier Big East competition. I expect Ed Cooley’s group to produce some surprises in February based on the nature of his teams, but this is a rebuilding year at Georgetown. The Hoyas just don’t have enough, although Jayden Epps has been great and can keep them in games. Ismael Massoud’s shotmaking is my X-factor for this team.
Tier 5: Sorry, not your year
The good news for the Blue Demons is that they didn’t play a midweek conference game, so at 0-0, they’re ahead of five teams. But a 2-8 start to the year has been very disappointing. The pressure is rising on head coach Tony Stubblefield.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
