Bookmaker, sharp discuss March Madness; Houston Cougars liability for sportsbooks
On a March Madness odds board that shows North Carolina, Duke and Kentucky struggling to various degrees, Kansas and UCLA are carrying the water for college basketball’s blue bloods. But not so much so that either the defending national champion Jayhawks or the Bruins are the current favorites to win it all.
As Selection Sunday draws near, Houston remains atop the odds to win the NCAA Tournament. And Alabama is tucked in right behind — along with Kansas — although the Crimson Tide have some serious off-court issues.
Do the Cougars or Crimson Tide have the goods to lift the trophy come April 3? Could Kansas or UCLA get the job done? Is there a dark horse to be considered?
WynnBet senior trader Matt Lindeman and avid college basketball bettor Andy Molitor help ponder those questions in the NCAA Tournament odds market.
Houston Hype
The Cougars are a stout 27-2 straight up (SU) this season and a more modest 17-12 against the spread (ATS). Heading into its final two games, Houston is on a nine-game SU win streak and is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games.
It suffices to say that there’s plenty to like about Kelvin Sampson’s troops, who are the +600 favorite in WynnBet’s March Madness odds (+650 at FOX Bet). But Lindeman isn’t certain that Houston can parlay that into a six-game win streak during the NCAA Tournament — even with the stars seemingly aligning for the Cougars.
"Houston seems like a super cute story, with the Final Four being in Houston and UH grad Jim Nantz calling his last Final Four," Lindeman said. "I just think it’s an absurd amount of pressure for a program that simply hasn’t proven it has the ability to consistently beat ubertalented teams. Their most impressive win over the last two seasons, a Sweet 16 win over Arizona [last year], was followed by a dismal performance against Villanova.
"Baylor ran them off the court in the [Final Four] two years ago. And Alabama has won both meetings in a home-and-home since," Lindeman said, alluding to the Cougars’ 83-82 road loss to ‘Bama last season and 71-65 home loss this season. "The Cougars are in the position usually occupied by Gonzaga, and we’ve seen how that’s gone for the Zags late in the tournament."
That said, a Houston title run wouldn’t be good for WynnBet.
"We’ve given out good prices on the Cougars over the last few weeks and do not do well if they take home the hardware," Lindeman said of a team that opened +1000 and at one point was a tidy +550.
Also worth pointing out: Other sportsbooks have seen a bundle of Houston money come in from Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale. The Houston furniture store magnate has three major wagers on the Cougars: $1 million at +900 at DraftKings, $500,000 at +1000 at BetMGM and $500,000 at +900 at Barstool Sportsbook. With those three big bets, if Houston wins, McIngvale would profit $19 million – which, per usual, he’ll use to offset his latest furniture store promotion.
Molitor isn’t surprised by Houston’s success nor its spot atop the NCAA Tourney odds. However, it would take longer odds for him to put a bet on the Cougars.
"Houston is the favorite and has earned it, and it shouldn’t have snuck up on anyone," Molitor said. "This will be the third straight season where the Cougars finish with a top-10 offense and defense under Kelvin Sampson. After a run to the Elite Eight last year, I think they are poised for another deep run. But it’s hard to get excited about such a short price."
Troubled Tide
To put it quite bluntly, the Alabama basketball program is facing a mountain of public scrutiny.
On the court, Alabama is 25-4 SU (16-12-1 ATS), and the Crimson Tide are the +800 co-second choice with Kansas in WynnBet’s NCAA Tournament odds market (+900 at FOX Bet). But as Lindeman pointed out, there’s no certainty as to how things play out over the next couple of weeks with the whirlwind surrounding the program.
"The Tide look like the best team in the country if their entire roster is intact and on the court. But as we’re learning, there’s a chance that might not be the case here in a few weeks," Lindeman said while noting action has still rolled in on the Crimson Tide. "We’ve tried our best to protect Alabama, but a flood of money has come in over the last month as they’ve steamrolled through SEC play."
Alabama opened +4000 at WynnBet and, at one point early on, was as long as +7500, but more recently got as short as +600. Molitor mirrored Lindeman with concerns about the Tide’s off-court issues.
"They obviously have some pretty big distractions around the program at the moment. It’s another future that’s under 10/1 that I’m shying away from," Molitor said while noting the irony of Alabama being in the chase for a national title in basketball. "While ‘Bama is a big school in a big conference, it has always been overshadowed by Kentucky and Florida. It would be funny for the basketball team to wind up with a title in the year that the football team finally has a letdown."
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Carrying the Blue Blood Banner
It’s been a bumpy year for some of the bluest of the blue bloods, particularly North Carolina, but also Duke and Kentucky. However, Kansas is right in the March Madness odds hunt as it pursues a second straight title, and UCLA is certainly seen as a contender, too.
Entering its final two regular-season games, Kansas (24-5 SU, 14-15 ATS) is on a six-game SU win streak and is even doing better for bettors, going 5-1 ATS in that span. WynnBet opened the Jayhawks at +1500 in odds to win the NCAA Tournament, and for those paying attention, there was a point at which you could grab Kansas at +2500.
Now, however, Bill Self’s squad is the +800 (+700 at FOX Bet) co-second choice with Alabama. And bettors are on it.
"It’s been hard to stop the Jayhawks money from coming in, which surprises me a bit, given bettors will be asking them to repeat," Lindeman said. "There’s no denying they have the most impressive resume in the country, but from a power-rating perspective, they don’t stand out."
Molitor is certainly a Kansas believer and, for that matter, a Big 12 believer in general.
"I’ve fallen in love with basically the entire Big 12, and of the favorites, I view Kansas as the one team I would bet on," Molitor said.
UCLA (25-4 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) joined Kansas in opening at +1500 and was +2000 at its longest point. The Bruins are now WynnBet’s co-fourth choice at +1200, joined by Arizona and Purdue. Lindeman and the rest of the risk room would love to see a Bruins championship.
"UCLA is one of our best results of the contenders, as we’ve been high on them and protected them for most of the year," he said.
Riding the Dark Horse
When wagering on NCAA Tournament odds, some bettors hope to uncover that hidden gem: a team at somewhat longer odds that makes a run and either wins the title — providing a better payout than the pre-tourney favorites — or gets far enough to create a potential hedge opportunity.
Molitor pointed to a couple of teams he thinks merit consideration as the Big Dance approaches.
"Not very under-the-radar to a lot of smart college basketball minds, but this is one of the best teams Creighton has ever assembled," Molitor said, specifically noting what he termed a "pretty elite defense."
That said, the Bluejays (18-11 SU, 13-16 ATS) are in a bit of a rut, going 1-3 SU in their last four games, following an eight-game win streak. Creighton is +4000 at WynnBet (+4000 at FOX Bet).
"In that same range, I like a fully healthy TCU team that has played an absolute meat grinder of a schedule while missing some key players," Molitor said.
Most notably, standout point guard Mike Miles recently missed five games for the Horned Frogs. Miles is now back in the lineup for TCU (19-10 SU, 15-13-1 ATS), which is +3000 to win the title (+3000 at FOX Bet).
Molitor also pointed to one longer shot he thinks merits a look on the March Madness odds board.
"A deep shot would be San Diego State, which has had trouble shining and living up to expectations come tourney time in the past," he said.
The Aztecs are 23-5 SU (12-13-2 ATS), going 10-1 SU in their last 11 games, including a current six-game win streak. WynnBet has San Diego State at +7500 to win the NCAA championship.
"The Aztecs have put together their best team since the 2019-20 squad," Molitor said. "Maybe they’ll get to answer the ‘what might have been’ question since that tournament was canceled for a 30-2 squad."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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