The No. 1 question of Championship Week for fans of any bubble team is, “How many do we need to win? Obviously, there’s no exact formula, because one team’s fate depends in part on how the other contenders do.
But here’s a general guide:
As of today, everyone that’s a No. 9 seed or better in this bracket is a lock.
The No. 10 seeds (VCU, Michigan State and Xavier) and highest No 11 (Providence) could use one more win to feel better about themselves. (The fourth No. 10 seed, Wichita State, is an automatic.)
The other No. 11 seeds (Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee, USC and Vanderbilt) and one at-large No. 12 seed (Syracuse) might be in with one more but would feel better with two. (Illinois State, my second-to-last at-large, is already done.)
Kansas State, my first team out, is likely in with two more wins because they’d come against highly ranked Baylor and, barring an upset, West Virginia. Iowa and Illinois may be in the same boat if enough teams above them exit early.
Everybody else probably needs three, which in all but a few cases, means ... winning their conference tournament.
* — Denotes projected conference champion, automatic berth. Teams in bold have secured an automatic berth.
This edition's bracket is Midwest vs. West and East vs. South in the national semifinals, based on the order of my No. 1 seeds.
BRACKET WATCH
MIDWEST REGION (KANSAS CITY)
Seed
Team
Location
1
Kansas*
at Tulsa
16
New Orleans*/North Dakota*
8
Dayton*
9
Seton Hall
4
Purdue*
at Milwaukee
13
Princeton*
5
Cincinnati
12
Illinois State/Syracuse
6
Wisconsin
at Salt Lake City
11
Wake Forest
3
Arizona
14
Winthrop
7
Iowa State
at Indianapolis
10
Michigan State
2
Louisville
15
UC Irvine*
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WEST REGION (San Jose)
Seed
Team
Location
1
Gonzaga*
at Salt Lake City
16
Texas Southern*/Mount Saint Mary's*
8
South Carolina
9
Oklahoma State
4
Duke
at Greenville, SC
13
East Tennessee State
5
SMU*
12
Nevada*
6
Maryland
at Milwaukee
11
USC/Vanderbilt
3
Butler
14
Cal State Bakersfield*
7
Virginia Tech
at Sacramento
10
Wichita State
2
Oregon*
15
Omaha*
EAST REGION (NEW YORK)
Seed
Team
Location
1
Villanova*
at Buffalo
16
Jacksonville State
8
Michigan
9
Arkansas
4
Florida
at Orlando
13
Vermont*
5
Virginia
12
UNC Wilmington
6
Saint Mary's
at Orlando
11
Providence
3
Florida State
14
Akron*
7
Creighton
at Tulsa
10
VCU
2
Baylor
15
Iona*
SOUTH REGION (MEMPHIS)
Seed
Team
Location
1
North Carolina*
at Greenville, SC
16
NC Central*
8
Marquette
9
Northwestern
4
West Virginia
at Buffalo
13
Bucknell*
5
Notre Dame
12
UT Arlington*
6
Minnesota
at Indianapolis
11
Middle Tennessee*
3
Kentucky*
14
Florida Gulf Coast
7
Miami
at Sacramento
10
Xavier
2
UCLA
15
Northern Kentucky*
LAST FOUR BYES: Michigan State, Xavier, Wake Forest, Providence
LAST FOUR IN: USC, Vanderbilt, Illinois State, Syracuse
FIRST FOUR OUT: Kansas State, Iowa, Illinois, Rhode Island
NEXT FOUR OUT: Cal, Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State
MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES: ACC (10), Big Ten (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), A-10 (2), American (2), MVC (2), WCC (2)
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