BYU Cougars

BYU Basketball: Cougars won't beat Zags, but they might

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:44 a.m. ET

Fansided, Adam Andreason/FanSided via Lawless Republic

BYU basketball is hosting the nation’s top team in the Gonzaga Bulldogs. How excited should you be about the highest ranked team ever in a sold-out Marriott Center?

Don’t expect BYU basketball to beat Gonzaga on Thursday.

Everyone in sports loves an underdog story. Especially when your team is the underdog, less so when you happen to be the overdog. Remember that UVU was the underdog against BYU, with only a 1 percent chance of victory.

I don’t hear BYU fans talking about how much they loved that.

And against the No. 1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs (in both polls), the boxes for a historic Warrior Giant vs Shepherd Boy showdown have been checked. Every blue-blooded fan is passing around slings and declining to put on that big armor.

So here you have to ask yourself how you want to approach this game. One of the premiere games ever for the Cougars is waltzing into Provo. The prospect knocking off a number one, undefeated team glitters like gold at the end of rainbow.

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

But that is no easy task. According to the metrics at Kenpom, BYU has a 9 percent chance of victory. Taken another way, you could say that if these Cougar and Bulldog teams played 10 times, maybe only once would BYU win.

A lot of statistics can tell you just how good the Zags are, and conversely, just how tough a time the Cougars are going to have:

The Zags are blowing almost everyone out, everywhere. Under normal conditions, the Cougars won’t even be close to a win.

But this is college sports. A single game on a single night can turn statistics on their head. And the fact remains that no matter how unlikely it is for BYU to win Thursday night, there is still a chance that they might.

You know which meme to be inserting here.

Now, optimism is a great trait in a human being. Fanhood is based on optimism with each new season, team, and game. Here’s to the unconquerable belief that the next one will be the greatest ever. But you can also make things a lot easier on yourself by managing expectations.

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

For me personally, expectation is best arranged in tiers. Here’s how I see it:

Tiers of Expectation

Tier 1: If BYU loses by single digits, no problem. That is the outcome I expect, and anything better is gravy. That means that the Cougars showed that they are at least shouting distance of a top ranked team. That they have talent and desire, even if the stars haven’t quite aligned yet.

However, losing by a bucket kills the soul.

Tier 2: If the Cougar lose by less than 20, but have some good moments, that’s a passing grade. Against such a deep, talented, high-riding team, when the Cougars are really not putting their best foot forward the last two games, that would be about par.

Tier 3: If they lose by 20+, I’ll say that the Cougars underperformed, and are not living up to their billing. That they didn’t have enough pride in that fact that they were playing in the Marriott Center, one of the best home court advantages in sports. And that most of all, they just didn’t want it enough.

So with expectations tempered and the opponent put in their proper scope, how excited should you be for this game?

It’s a tough question. If you want to keep that even-keel perspective, there’s a lot to not think about. The magic of the Marriott Center. The amount of raw talent that BYU commands and just hasn’t synced up properly. How a sudden bout of hot shooting from deep can cover many weaknesses. How the Cougars have knocked off a top-5 ranked Zags squad before.

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Also, don’t mind too much that this would be a historic win, the Y’s first ever over a top-ranked team. Not to mention that it would be an even 300 wins for BYU’s Dave Rose, and an epic way to get to that milestone, and put the coach in good company.

But if you don’t want to get hyped for the game, you really shouldn’t dwell on these things. Manage those expectations. Find the good in a close loss. Put the prospect of a season-saving win, a golden jewel in BYU basketball history, out of your mind.

Take it from me, BYU fans: the Cougars won’t win. But they might. They won’t.

But they might.