College Basketball

Why North Carolina is No. 1 in our college basketball 2022-23 countdown

Published Nov. 4, 2022 7:42 a.m. ET

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

Editor's note: John Fanta is counting down his top 15 college basketball teams leading up to the start of the 2022-23 season. Topping the list at No. 1 is North Carolina.

It’s a glorious time in Chapel Hill, which is really something when you think about it. Just 261 days ago, the North Carolina Tar Heels lost a home game to ACC bottom-feeder Pittsburgh to fall to 18-8 on the season and 10-5 in the conference. In most seasons, you would look at the record and say they’re more than OK, but the ACC went through a tough regular season last year.

The Tar Heels found their groove, though, proceeding to win six consecutive games, including an unforgettable triumph that spoiled Mike Krzyzewski’s final act at Cameron Indoor Stadium and solidified their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. They didn’t stop there, riding their No. 8 seed all the way to the national title game after ending Coach K’s career at Duke.

UNC outlasting Duke was a masterclass

Despite going into the Final Four as the projected favorites, the Duke Blue Devils fell to the North Carolina Tar Heels, 81-77, ending coach Mike Krzyzewski's career.

Now, the Tar Heels return four starters from that wild run, and while replacing Brady Manek is difficult, UNC did so by adding Northwestern transfer Pete Nance.

Hubert Davis enters his second season on top of the college basketball world. The question is simple: Which North Carolina team will this edition be closer to — the squad that started 18-8 and fell at home to Pittsburgh, or the one that won 11 of its final 13 games and shocked the college basketball world?

Who’s back for the Tar Heels?

There is no shortage of experience on this team. Armando Bacot is the ACC Preseason Player of the Year and a Preseason All-American. The 6-foot-11, 235-pound senior deciding to return to college basketball for a final act was one of the biggest moves of the offseason and automatically catapulted the Tar Heels to near the top of the preseason polls.

Last season, Bacot became the first player in college basketball history to notch six double-doubles in the NCAA Tournament. His 99 boards in the tournament were the second-most in the history of the event and the most since 1954. He finished the season averaging 16.3 points and 13.1 boards on 57% shooting but increased his rebounding average to 16.5 per game in the Tournament to go with 15.3 points. The list of accolades and eye-popping numbers from Bacot goes on and on, and the fact he already has 1,300 points, 1,001 rebounds and 127 blocks in three seasons is downright scary. He’ll certainly keep opposing coaches up at night, and his return is yet another result of allowing players to earn money off NIL.

So the Tar Heels have their imposing superstar back to man the frontcourt, and they’ve got the backcourt duo that surged in March back too in Caleb Love and RJ Davis.

This guard duo was streaky at times last year, but Davis’ ability to lead the offense and make key decisions was huge for the Tar Heels to turn the year around and make a deep run. He averaged 13.5 points and 3.6 assists last season and put up big numbers at the Final Four, combining for 33 points and 19 rebounds in the two games in New Orleans. His shot is key, as Davis’ field goal percentage rose to 43%, but he went through ups and downs on the perimeter. Over the course of the last four games of his season, Davis shot 3-for-17 from downtown. When he’s on from distance, it becomes even harder to defend a potent UNC offense, which is ranked No. 8 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.

Then there’s Love, who has the ability to provide major bursts for North Carolina, as showcased by a 30-point performance against UCLA and a 28-point outing against Duke in the NCAA Tournament. When Love gets hot from downtown, it kicks the Tar Heels up a notch. He provides an element of explosiveness, but as good as he can be, there’s another side to that. At times, Love’s shot selection can be ill-advised, and he can shoot UNC out of opportunities. In the national championship game, he went just 5-for-24 from the field. Two games beforehand, Love shot 6-for-17, albeit in a win over Saint Peter’s in the East Regional Final. Shot selection is a key for him to continue to evolve.

The other returning impact player is 6-foot-9 fifth-year senior Leaky Black, whose length and athleticism give the Tar Heels a great weapon on the defensive end. He will start for UNC, and while he’s not great on the offensive end, his role is to be that stopper.

The main reserve to keep an eye on is Puff Johnson, a 6-foot-8 junior who averaged nearly 11 minutes per game last season, going for 11 points and six rebounds in the national title game.

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Who’s new on the roster?

Nance is going to be a big-time piece of the puzzle. The 6-foot-11 fifth-year senior was about as strong a replacement for Manek that Davis and his staff could have asked for in their roster management. Nance adds a wealth of experience, and the best part about him is that he’s steadily gotten better throughout his career in the Big Ten, a difficult league in which to play the post. He’s comfortable in pick-and-roll scenarios and can protect the rim at a solid rate, while also showing an ability to hit perimeter shots.

Last year, Nance put up career-best numbers of 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game on 45% shooting from beyond the arc. He’s an efficient player who's seen more than a fair share of college basketball. His maturity makes him such a nice fit for a roster that was missing just one key piece. Alongside Bacot, he'll help give the Tar Heels one of the country's best frontcourt duos.

Beyond a ton of experience, North Carolina also welcomes the nation’s No. 12 freshman class, according to 247 Sports.

The highest-rated freshman is four-star player Seth Trimble, a 6-foot-3 guard from Wisconsin who has remarkable athleticism and great quickness to the hoop. He’s joined in the freshman class by a four-star center, Jalen Washington, who enters an ideal learning situation in his first year with the program, as well as four-star power forward Tyler Nickel.

The big question with North Carolina …

Expectations are always very high at Chapel Hill. But the Tar Heels came out of nowhere last year as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Nobody will even think to take them lightly now. How will this Tar Heels group handle the role of the hunted, and can the buy-in be present for a star-studded, experienced team to be complementary and avoid those moments of offensive inefficiency?

Duke will once again be strong, and Virginia could be the biggest challenger to the Tar Heels in the ACC, as the Hoos are loaded with experience. The point? It won’t be easy for North Carolina, and repeating deep March Madness runs is always a challenge — the tournament can giveth, and taketh away.

Schedule highlights:

Friday, Nov. 25: Villanova or Iowa State (PK85 Invitational)
Sunday, Nov. 27: Oregon/Michigan State/UConn/Alabama (PK85 Invitational)
Wednesday, Nov. 30: at Indiana
Sunday, Dec. 4: at Virginia Tech
Saturday, Dec. 17: Ohio State (Madison Square Garden)
Wednesday, Dec. 21: Michigan (Charlotte, NC)
Tuesday, Jan. 10: at Virginia
Saturday, Feb. 4: at Duke
Saturday, March 4: Duke

Top 15 countdown:

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.