By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
March Madness is finally here! Brackets will be out Sunday, and to help get you a jump start on how to handicap the NCAA Tournament, here’s a breakdown of four teams that are worth grabbing now in the futures market.
We wanted to dive into some undervalued teams outside the obvious teams — Baylor, Gonzaga, Kentucky and Arizona, who will probably be the four favorites (and possibly Duke, since the committee loves to give them a favorable draw) — capable of making a run to the title.
We know the masses gravitate towards No. 1 seeds. Understandably so, as five of the last six champions were No. 1 seeds (Villanova was a #2 in 2016). But this is the year to take some chances, as it looks like anyone's game.
None of the teams below will be a No. 1 seed, but they are worth a sprinkle on to win it all. Let's jump into them, with odds via FOX Bet.
Auburn Tigers: +2000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Two metrics I like to look at every year ahead of the tournament are offensive and defensive efficiency. Auburn ranks 22th in offense and eighth in defense. 17 of the last 19 National Champions finished in the Top 20 for offensive and defensive efficiency, and the Tigers are right on the cusp.
They’ve got a strong point guard in Wendell Green, a future NBA Top 10 pick in Jabari Smith and 7-foot-1 center Walker Kessler, who leads the country in block percentage. And don't forget, coach Bruce Pearl has taken three teams to the Sweet 16 — Milwaukee, Tennessee and Auburn.
Their lack of 3-point shooting (247th in the country) is a huge concern, so it's all about matchups. But, Auburn can play with anyone in the country. This season, they've lost four games by a total of 16 points, including two in overtime.
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Villanova Wildcats: +2500 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $260 total)
The Wildcats need no introduction, with two titles in the last six years. They’ve only lost three times this calendar year, twice to Marquette, and then a nail-biter to Connecticut.
Villanova has one of the best leaders in the country in Collin Gillespie and an efficient offense that also leads the nation in free-throw shooting (82.5%).
The defense — 33rd in efficiency — is the weakest of this quartet, and some of that has to do with the lack of rim protection. If you want to get a little concerned about the Wildcats, it’s their quality of opposition. It's not like Nova's facing great offenses on a nightly basis, as only UConn and Providence in their league rank in the Top 50 nationally on offense. When Villanova faced two elite offenses earlier this season — UCLA and Purdue — it lost both games, giving up 80 plus points each time.
But, they still have coach Jay Wright, and you know he will have them ready come tourney time.
UCLA Bruins: +2500 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Last March, the Bruins were one of the best stories of the tourney, going from the play-in to the Final Four. This year, they returned the starting lineup and have been one of the best teams in the country all season, ranking 15th in offense and 11th in defense.
Yes, there was an early February hiccup, losing three of four, but those were all on the road. Bumps and bruises to Jaime Jaquez Jr. and freshman Peyton Watson haven’t helped either.
The Bruins won’t catch anyone by surprise this March, and opponents will throw the kitchen sink at Johnny Juzang, but the team is battle-tested. The only concern is if Johnny J gets in foul trouble or has an off night. Then I’m not sure if they have enough offense to win the title.
Houston Cougars: +5000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $510 total)
I loved Houston last year, and they reached the Final Four. Despite losing two of their best players, and star Marcus Sasser in December to a fractured foot, the Cougars are once again built for March.
With four senior starters and a fantastic coach in Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars check all the statistical boxes: 14th in offense and 14th in defense. Of the last 19 national champions, 14 of them finished in the Top 15 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
A significant concern is the Cougars are woeful from the free-throw line. Currently, they shoot 66.3%, ranking 334th in the country. Hopefully, that does not come back to bite them in the tournament.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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