College basketball roundtable: LSU, Wisconsin among big surprises so far
We are less than two months into the 2022-23 college basketball season, and there are only three teams that were ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25 Poll that remain there today: Houston, Kansas and Arkansas.
How's that for parity?
Two teams that didn't appear in the preseason poll, LSU and Wisconsin, are off to blazing starts, while the same can't be said for the likes of Florida State and Wyoming.
And what's going on with Creighton? All eyes will be on the Bluejays when they host DePaul in a Big East tilt on Christmas Day (4:30 p.m. ET on FOX).
We're here to answer key questions ahead of a fun-filled week of college hoops.
What team is flying under the radar that shouldn’t be?
Katz: LSU
The Tigers are 11-1 following a 72-68 win over East Tennessee State on Wednesday. Their only loss was by two to Kansas State on a neutral court. The Tigers have a new coach in Matt McMahon — a winner wherever he’s been. He brought KJ Williams with him from Murray State, which has proved to be an outstanding move as Williams is averaging 18.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. Adam Miller, a one-time Illini guard, is finally healthy, and he’s averaging 13.9 PPG. The Tigers have the 1-2 punch offensively and have been defending well. The SEC is top-heavy, but LSU is part of that upper echelon. They haven’t been ranked up to this point, but they should seriously get consideration. I won’t be surprised if the Tigers knock off a number of the elite SEC teams and are in the chase for a top-five finish.
Fanta: Wisconsin
It feels like Wisconsin hasn’t been discussed enough. The Badgers lost a top-10 NBA Draft pick in Johnny Davis and a leader in Brad Davison, yet Greg Gard’s team is ranked in the top 20. At 6-foot-9, senior Tyler Wahl is one of the most difficult matchups in the Big Ten, averaging 14.5 points and 6.9 rebounds per game and establishing that Wisconsin trademarked toughness we’ve become used to seeing in Madison. In the backcourt, Chucky Hepburn has risen to the occasion, posting 12 PPG and shooting 47% from 3-point territory.
The pleasant surprise for Gard has been true freshman Connor Essegian, a three-star recruit who has entered the program and lit it up from downtown. The Badgers are top 20 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, which is a common thread, but the four scorers in double-figures weren’t necessarily expected entering the year. At 9-2 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten, Wisconsin hasn’t been a team discussed enough as a top-tier group in the Big Ten. There is still a lot of basketball to be played, but the fact the Badgers were picked ninth in the preseason media poll and have performed as well as they have is impressive.
Wisconsin cruises to a 56-45 win over Green Bay
Who is a player everybody should know about but might not?
Fanta: Virginia Tech’s Sean Pedulla
The Hokies sophomore guard has taken a seismic leap for the program, but he gave us a taste of it last March. In a first-round NCAA Tournament loss to Texas, Pedulla — who was the Hokies’ seventh-leading scorer — stepped up with 19 points in as many minutes on the floor. This year, he’s gone from a role player to Virginia Tech’s leading scorer on an 11-2 team that has flown under the radar. Pedulla ranks fifth in the ACC in scoring at 17.3 points per game. He has done it efficiently, shooting 48% from the floor, while also leading the team with 48 assists.
Katz: Penn State's Jalen Pickett
The former Siena star has been thriving in his second season with the Nittany Lions. Pickett is leading Penn State in every major statistical category. He was the lead actor in beating Illinois in Champaign. He should be a first-team All-Big Ten player and will be the reason the Nittany Lions play in a postseason tournament. Pickett is a tough matchup at 6-foot-4. He’s a taller, more physical lead guard who can score in a variety of ways and embraces the tough defensive assignment.
Which team’s struggles so far are most puzzling?
Katz: Wyoming
I know. I know. Wyoming? Well, the Cowboys don’t have Graham Ike, who is out with a leg injury. Still, there is no reason Wyoming — projected to be a contender for the Mountain West — should be struggling this much. The Cowboys are 5-7 with plenty of questionable losses. Hunter Maldonado decided to come back to Laramie after averaging 18 PPG last season. He was expected to be a player of the year candidate in the MWC, but that hasn’t happened yet, as his scoring numbers are down to 12.8 PPG. Wyoming will have to win the MWC Tournament to get a bid after earning an at-large berth and playing Indiana in the First Four in Dayton last March.
Fanta: Florida State
Seeing Florida State at 4-10 is absolutely wild. Seeing the Seminoles at 0-4 for the first time since 1959 was even wilder. Leonard Hamilton’s team was projected to have top-25 potential while receiving votes in the preseason AP Poll. Forced to deal with a slew of injuries, plus a 16-game suspension for highly-touted freshman Baba Miller, the Seminoles faced a stacked deck from the start. That said, to see sub-150 in KenPom offense and defense is something. FSU could pick off some teams in the ACC, which wouldn’t be good for the league, considering they are currently No. 256 in the NET Rankings. While there are reasons for the slow start, 4-10? At Florida State? That’s eyebrow-raising.
What must Creighton show Sunday against DePaul on Christmas Day on FOX?
Katz: The Bluejays have to win. Let’s start there. Creighton CANNOT afford to lose seven in a row. The Bluejays have played a tough schedule. And not having Ryan Kalkbrenner in the last three games is clearly a factor. But Creighton has struggled to close out games. That must change. The team that played Arizona in the Maui Invitational final was a legit NCAA Tournament team. Somehow, someway, that team must come back against a DePaul team that has struggled lately. Creighton will have the viewing public to itself, so it must show well.
Fanta: I’m with Andy. It is a must-win for the Bluejays, and if Creighton is ever going to right the ship, it’s going to come during this holiday period. Greg McDermott’s team hosts Butler on Thursday (8 p.m. ET on FS1) to start a three-game homestand. Of course, the absence of Kalkbrenner has played a major role, but Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander have to figure it out in the backcourt. The Jays are known for their strong guard play, but in the last two games, Nembhard and Alexander have shot a combined 8-for-33. That mark must improve for this team to turn it around.
Creighton's Arthur Kaluma throws it down vs. Marquette
In the spirit of the holidays, which team could use a gift right now, and what would that gift be?
Katz: A healthy Fardaws Aimaq for Texas Tech coach Mark Adams
Aimaq was a stat stuffer at Utah Valley and was one of the top transfers in the country. But a foot injury has kept him out of the lineup. The Red Raiders have an NCAA Tournament-caliber team, but they can go to another level if Aimaq is healthy for the heart of the Big 12 season.
Fanta: Illinois: A team bonding session
The Illini are fully capable and talented, but Brad Underwood has challenged his group to be more accountable. If this team is going to challenge for the Big Ten title, it must come together.
Which first-year head coach is standing out through six weeks?
Fanta: Kansas State's Jerome Tang
The Wildcats are 11-1 on the season and are ranked inside the top 50 of KenPom. Tang has instilled a strong defensive mindset, and it’s allowed Kansas State to hold its opponents to just 60.5 PPG. Keyontae Johnson is the comeback player of the year in college basketball, averaging 17.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, two years after he collapsed on the court as a member of the Florida Gators. The fact that Tang’s group has won 11-of-12 and possesses the easiest player to root for in the country is a fascinating story.
Katz: Mississippi State's Chris Jans
Jans has done an outstanding job of blending transfers in Starkville to produce one of the top teams in the country, sitting at 11-1. But LSU's Matt McMahon also has to be considered on this list as well. Both first-year coaches in the SEC have teams that could compete for the league title.
Which conference regular season title race is going to be the most interesting to decide?
Katz: The SEC
The bottom of the SEC isn't as deep as others, but there is no way to accurately predict who will win the SEC, with Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky at the top. LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn also have a legitimate chance to crash the party. This should be one of the most balanced races the league has had for some time.
Fanta: The SEC
The conference is stacked at the top with three top-10 teams in the AP Top 25 Poll in Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas. On a given day, those three could beat anybody in the country and could end up splitting the meetings among themselves. What’s so fascinating about Alabama and Arkansas is that they’ve done it with top-tier freshmen and transfers playing a significant role.
Tennessee has high-level backcourt play with Santiago Vescovi and Zakai Zeigler, and a stout presence in the post with Olivier Nkamhoua. The Tide’s Brandon Miller has been the best player in the conference. Will he lead Nate Oats’ team to a regular season crown, or will Nick Smith and Jordan Walsh help charge Eric Musselman’s team, which is such a dangerous group? And just think, you can’t totally count out John Calipari and Kentucky, especially if the Cats begin to play better on offense.
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Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
