Duke, Gonzaga, Purdue or Baylor: Breaking down the early candidates for No. 1
By Andy Katz
FOX Sports College Basketball Analyst
The beauty of college basketball is that the debate over who should be No. 1 is ultimately ended by the play on the court in early April.
But we all need, love and crave rankings and want to know who is or should be No. 1 on a weekly basis.
Gonzaga and UCLA settled that issue for the moment on Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Gonzaga was No. 1. UCLA was No. 2. I had them reversed. The Zags blew out the Bruins, who were without starting center Cody Riley (knee), but that didn't really matter. There was no question that night that Gonzaga was No. 1.
Three days later, the Zags had another top-five matchup against Duke, once again in Las Vegas. That game was a heavyweight bout, with all the plays, swings and highlights of a title game.
Duke won 84-81.
Now the question of No. 1 in Monday’s Associated Press Top 25 is legitimately a tossup.
Why should Duke jump from No. 5 to No. 1? Why should undefeated Purdue move up from No. 3 to No. 1? How much should Gonzaga drop? Where should 7-0 Baylor fit in?
Let's break down the options.
The case for Duke
The Blue Devils have passed the eye test. In their game Friday, they cleared every early-season barometer for a No. 1 team.
Duke has had two top-10 challenges this season and won both on neutral courts; then-No. 9 Duke beat No. 10 Kentucky 79-71 in the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden to open the season.
Duke has a superstar in Paolo Banchero and a second one blossoming in Trevor Keels. But the Blue Devils are much more than that. Wendell Moore on the perimeter and Mark Williams inside, as well as Marquette transfer forward Theo John, have been sensational so far. The "supporting players" all played well in the two biggest games of the season, and when Banchero had cramping issues, the Blue Devils survived his absences to prevail.
Paolo Banchero, Duke hold off Gonzaga 84-81 in thriller
Granted, Duke isn’t as deep as Purdue, but the Blue Devils defended on the perimeter and around the rim against Kentucky and Gonzaga. According to kenpom.com, they have the seventh-best adjusted offensive efficiency and the 15th-best defensive efficiency through the first three weeks of the season.
No one would protest if Duke is No. 1 after its win over Gonzaga on Friday. The Blue Devils play Ohio State on Tuesday in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.
The case for Purdue
The Boilermakers are 6-0 and undefeated. Why should they be leap-frogged in the poll?
Well, first of all, there are no rules for where teams are ranked from week to week. The polls are a snapshot of the current week, with perspective from how teams have performed over the course of the season.
Purdue won the Hall of Fame tournament at Mohegan Sun on Nov. 21. The Boilermakers came back to top Villanova in the championship game after beating North Carolina in the previous game. Those two are the Boilermakers' only high-level matchups to date.
That said, the schedule will get tougher this week, with a game against Florida State on Tuesday in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge and another against surprising Iowa on Friday in the Big Ten opener. Both games are in West Lafayette.
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The Boilermakers have multiple stars inside, with Zach Edey and Trevion Williams, who is coming off the bench, and Jaden Ivey on the perimeter. Sasha Stefanovic, among others, gives the Boilermakers a collection of rotation players who can deliver double-digit performances. Purdue is deeper than Duke, and like the Blue Devils, the Boilermakers have the look of a No. 1 team.
Purdue is No. 2 in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 36 defensively. Nova was ranked No. 5 when No. 9 Purdue knocked it off. Purdue ranked No. 1 isn't outside the realm of possibility. But the Gonzaga win should give Duke the advantage, especially considering the Blue Devils also beat Kentucky, which has one loss so far. North Carolina, Purdue’s second marquee win, has two.
The case for Gonzaga
The Zags already beat No. 5 Texas at home handily and crushed No. 2 UCLA. The loss to No. 5 Duke in Las Vegas was by three, and the Zags had a few chances to win. There is no shame in what Gonzaga has accomplished so far.
The Bulldogs will lose the No. 1 spot. But how far should they fall?
Dropping the Zags just one spot wouldn’t be out of the question. They suffered a three-point loss to Duke on a neutral court. If Purdue weren't undefeated, the Zags could be safe at No. 2. But seeing as that's not the case, putting the Zags at No. 3, above undefeated Baylor, is plausible.
Gonzaga, which has a multitude of stars in Drew Timme, Chet Holmgren, Andrew Nembhard and now Julian Strawther, is No. 1 in Kenpom offensive efficiency and No. 9 on defense. The Zags' defense is much maligned lately but has been extremely effective, in large part thanks to the rim protection from Holmgren and the ability of the guards to challenge on the perimeter.
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The Zags will have more chances in the Top 25, with upcoming games against Texas Tech in Phoenix and Alabama in Seattle. Having an undefeated BYU, another Top-25 team, in the WCC also helps. So, too, does an undefeated San Francisco and a Maui Invitational finalist in Saint Mary’s.
The case for Baylor
The Bears won the Battle 4 Atlantis by beating Michigan State. Baylor has looked strong on the perimeter, with the combination of James Akinjo and LJ Cryer. Adam Flagler, Kendall Brown and Matthew Mayer have all been solid, as has the frontcourt of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Jeremy Sochan and Flo Thamba.
The issue for Baylor’s candidacy to be higher than four is this: the schedule. Wins over Stanford, Arizona State, VCU and Michigan State all sound great. But none of those teams was ranked. All had at least one loss, and all are works in progress.
Then again, Baylor’s Kenpom numbers are title-level so far, at No. 4 on offense and No. 5 on defense. This team is going to get better and better, will compete with Kansas and probably Texas for the Big 12 title, and just might make a title run.
But the results so far point to the Bears being solidly at No. 4 in this week’s poll.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on FOX Sports and Big Ten Network platforms, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
