College Basketball

Final Four predictions, expert picks, best bets for NCAA tournament

Published Mar. 31, 2023 10:55 a.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

From the demise of the top seeds to the rise of the mid-major, this March has been both mad and magical.

Can Florida Atlantic continue its Cinderella run, or will the equally surprising San Diego State pull through with its tenacious defense? Can the University of Miami drown out Connecticut, or will the Huskies bring home their fifth national title?

We’re betting on every single game in some way, shape or form throughout all of March Madness. You read that right: Every. Single. Game. Whether it's against the spread (ATS), on the moneyline or picking an Over/Under — we have you covered.

Let's press onward towards teams cutting down the nets with our Final Four picks (with all odds via FOX Bet).

No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 UConn

The least surprising of the Final Four teams is UConn. The advanced stats have loved the Huskies for weeks, and one website has had UConn as the top team in the country since February 1. They haven’t lost a game outside the Big East, and their four tourney wins are by an average of 22.5 ppg.

It’s tough not to like UConn here, as the line (-5.5) feels short. One statistical model has UConn by seven, another by eight. They have a decided edge inside with 6-foot-9 Adama Sanogo and reserve 7-foot-2 freshman Donovan Clingan.

However, point guards who can penetrate have given UConn problems (see Tyler Kolek of Marquette and Souley Boum of Xavier).

And that’s Miami’s strength, led by ACC POY Isaiah Wong.

Miami’s ride has been a wild one. The Hurricanes trailed Drake by eight with 4:30 left before closing the game on a 16-1 run. That finish lit a fire under the Hurricanes as the offense woke up and proceeded to smash Indiana and Houston by double digits before rallying from 13 down to shock Texas.

Good luck trying to figure out Miami. Nijel Pack made seven three-pointers against Houston; then the team attempted just eight against Texas. Will Miami be able to shoot 65 percent on 2-pointers as it did against the Longhorns?

PICK: Under 149.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

No. 9 FAU vs. No. 5 San Diego State

The last (only?) battle of mid-majors I can recall in the Final Four was VCU vs. Butler in 2011. Everyone roots for David against Goliath, but what happens when David faces David?

San Diego State is the most experienced team left in the field; Florida Atlantic has the deepest team left in the tournament.

I still have trouble wrapping my head around how FAU made it here. The statistical profile is strong - Top 30 in offense and defense, but what’s their best win in the field? A lucky, late win over Memphis on a shot in the closing seconds? Beating a 16-seed? A Tennessee team missing its point guard? An overachieving Kansas State Wildcats team? It doesn’t really matter how you got to the Final Four when you have 35 wins - you’re there.

The Owls have made eight or nine three-pointers in their four wins; SDSU is the second-best team defending threes in the country. Opponents are just 15-for-86 from deep, meaning FAU will have to lean on scoring inside, which at times has been a struggle for them, although 7-foot-1 Vladislav Goldin had 14 points vs. the small Wildcats. He won’t have it as easy against the brutish duo of Jaedon LeDee and Nathan Mensah, who more than held their own against post players from Alabama and Creighton.

Then again, what do you make of the Aztecs getting here with leading scorer Matt Bradley only scoring six points over the last two games? The 23-year-old shot 3-of-17 combined against Creighton and Alabama, yet San Diego State survived.

Point guard Lamont Butler has had a monster tournament, with 41 points and 15 assists, along with five steals.

I went against FAU in all four games so far, with only FDU covering.

I'll do it again here.

PCK: San Diego State (-135 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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