Five burning questions as college basketball enters March
The calendar has turned to March, meaning college basketball is about to get really fun as it takes over the spotlight in the sports world.
With conference tournaments coming up soon — some, in fact, are already underway — it's time to reset and attempt to answer some burning questions that should be on the minds of fans.
Who should college basketball observers be looking out for? Which teams are set to make a big impression? What are the biggest storylines to watch?
Our college basketball writers Andy Katz, John Fanta and Michael Cohen answer these crucial questions and more!
Which players seem destined to write their legacy this March?
Andy Katz:
Zach Edey, Purdue: Edey is the consensus national player of the year. He has been the most dominant player to date. But the Boilermakers have struggled of late, especially on the road. Now the pressure will be immense. Edey will be expected to lead the Boilermakers to a Big Ten Tournament title as well as a Final Four run. That means he’s going to have to defer less and become even more dominant. He knows the double-teams are coming, and with some of the guards struggling a bit from the perimeter, getting position in the post will be even more important. He will have to establish himself early and often. He will need to have a few 25-30-point, 15-17-rebound games for the Boilermakers to reach their ultimate goal.
Tyler Kolek, Marquette: The Golden Eagles have been one of the biggest surprises this season. Marquette won the Big East regular-season title and Kolek will be in contention for Big East player of the year honors after not even making the preseason All-Big East team. Kolek will be expected to lead the Golden Eagles on a deep NCAA Tournament run. Guards win championships, and Kolek has been sensational this season. But now he will be on the biggest stage. How will he handle the added pressure and expectations? We shall soon find out. But the time is now for him to shine even more.
Aidan Mahaney, Saint Mary’s: Mahaney has been a money player for the Gaels, making big shots for Randy Bennett. He’s a freshman, but he plays like a seasoned vet. Saint Mary’s has a system that allows him to slice and dice opponents on the offensive end. On the defensive end, he is at the forefront of a stingy D. The Gaels will get a high seed and be projected to win at least one or two games. That means Mahaney will have to rise to the challenge. He has flown under the radar nationally, but he will be a featured player this month.
Zach Edey racks up 26 points vs. Indiana
John Fanta: I’ll go with one player from a top-10 team, another player from a team ranked from 10-25, and one player from a potential Cinderella candidate.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA: The Camarillo kid’s story feels like destiny to begin with. He grew up learning from his father, Jaime Sr., about John Wooden and the success of UCLA. When the dynamic 6-foot-7 wing came into the Bruins program, they were coming off a 17-16 season and making a coaching transition from Steve Alford to Mick Cronin. All that has ensued in Jaquez’s time in Westwood is a trip to the Final Four, two Sweet 16 appearances and now, the program’s first Pac-12 regular-season title in a decade. Beyond his 17 points, eight rebounds and three assists per game, Jaquez is the ultimate leader and has made countless winning plays for a 25-win team.
Mike Miles Jr., TCU: When fully healthy, he’s one of the best guards in the country, evidenced by the fact that the Big 12 coaches voted him preseason player of the year. Miles has missed eight games this season with a knee injury but is back for the home stretch. He scored 24 points in a road win over Texas Tech on Saturday. This TCU team has had some ups and downs, but Jamie Dixon’s group is one of the best defensive units in the country and possesses experience and depth. The Horned Frogs are a group constructed to be in any game. Particularly in March, it’s the time for someone to pull through and hit the clutch buckets to decide a game. Miles can be that guy for this program, which won an NCAA Tournament game last year for the first time since 1987. Now, Miles and the Horned Frogs have their minds on making the program’s first Sweet 16 in 55 years.
Aaron Estrada, Hofstra: One of the nation’s leading scorers averaging over 21 points per game, the senior led the Pride to a CAA regular-season title, highlighted by a road victory over Charleston. Estrada’s pure scoring prowess and leadership for his coach, Hofstra legend and nine-year NBA player Speedy Claxton, is a great mid-major story. In 2020, the Pride were on their way to the program’s first NCAA Tournament since 2001 before COVID halted everything. Is this the year that a program on Long Island actually tastes the Big Dance? The legend of Estrada would grow tenfold if it happens.
Michael Cohen: Following John’s lead by selecting one player from each of those three categories, here’s who came to mind:
Brandon Miller, Alabama: For better or worse, Miller is going to be the most discussed player in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The freshman sensation at Alabama is averaging 19.7 points and eight rebounds per game this season and has a chance to be the No. 2 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. He scored 41 of his team’s 78 points in an overtime win over South Carolina last week and has the highest offensive rating of any player in the Southeastern Conference this season.
But Miller is also embroiled in arguably the most disturbing story of the college basketball season that left Jamea Harris, a 23-year-old mother, shot to death in Tuscaloosa six weeks ago. One of Miller’s then-teammates, Darius Miles, is facing capital murder charges for his alleged involvement in the killing, and the story took another turn in late February when court testimony from a detective placed Miller and a third member of the basketball program, Jaden Bradley, at the scene of the crime. The detective testified that Miles asked Miller to bring him the gun that was eventually used to kill Harris — a gun that was allegedly concealed in Miller’s car — though it was a fourth man unaffiliated with the basketball program, Michael Davis, who police say pulled the trigger. Miller’s attorney released a statement saying his client never touched the gun and was never involved in the exchange of the gun, even though Miller allegedly transported it upon request.
Alabama’s lack of transparency and decision not to discipline Miller or Bradley — neither of whom is facing criminal charges — has drawn widespread criticism from media outlets across the country, as did a series of tone-deaf comments from head coach Nate Oats that required him to apologize multiple times in the days to follow. Opposing fans from South Carolina chanted "Lock him up!" at Miller during a recent road game. Alabama is on the verge of securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and that means this storyline won’t be fading any time soon. Nor should it.
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana: Hood-Schifino is another freshman phenom who had one of the best individual performances of the season over the weekend in Indiana’s 79-71 upset of then-No. 5 Purdue at Mackey Arena, a win that snapped a seven-game losing streak for the Hoosiers in that building. The former five-star recruit played breathtaking basketball and came within a point of IU’s single-game freshman scoring record by dropping 35 points. On a night when All-American candidate Trayce Jackson-Davis was swallowed up by constant double-teams and light foul trouble, Hood-Schifino took over with the maturity and poise of an upperclassman. He toyed with a Purdue defense that proved incapable of rerouting him from the spots on the floor where a series of mid-range jumpers and leaners kept the Boilermakers at bay. It marked the fifth consecutive game in which Hood-Schifino has reached double-figure scoring, and he’s averaged 19.6 points per game during that stretch.
The unstoppable Jalen Hood-Schifino
Kendric Davis, Memphis: Head coach Penny Hardaway has the Tigers playing some of their best basketball of the season at the right time, with 10 wins in their last 12 games. Their only losses during that stretch were a one-point, overtime setback against Tulane and an eight-point road loss to Houston, which is one of the best teams in the country. A driving factor behind the Tigers’ success is fifth-year senior Davis, a transfer by way of TCU (2018-19) and SMU (2019-22). Davis leads Memphis and ranks 12th nationally in scoring at 21.3 PPG, his third consecutive season with at least 19 PPG. He’s reached double-figure scoring in all but one game with the Tigers and had a stretch from Jan. 11 through Feb. 12 where he averaged 24.9 PPG. He’s the kind of high-level guard who can fuel a postseason run.
Which team are you buying stock in to make a deep March run?
John: So, I’ll set the tone on this question and say that I purposefully did not choose a top-16 seed in Mike DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast in order to make my purchase valuable. The team that I’m buying stock into at this moment that I think could be of value right now as a dark horse is …
DUKE!
The Blue Devils have quietly won four in a row, and they’ve gotten healthy in the process. They’re hovering around the 6- or 7-seed spot, but on their best day, they’re absolutely good enough to be a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s why: Jon Scheyer has this group defending at a high level, sitting at 32nd in KenPom adjusted efficiency on that end of the floor. On the offensive end, Jeremy Roach has the ability to take over a game on his best day, and the supporting cast has gotten healthy and evolved.
Kyle Filipowski is a difficult matchup for any opposing defense, averaging 14.9 points and 8.9 rebounds per game en route to ACC Freshman of the Year honors, while Mark Mitchell and Dereck Lively II have both gotten better as the year’s gone on and Dariq Whitehead has returned to the rotation. An X-factor for this team: perimeter shooting, and therefore, Tyrese Proctor. Duke is 9-3 when he hits multiple 3-pointers in a game. With their defense and length being a constant, a lead guard who knows the stage and a supporting cast that doesn’t have a definitive ceiling, don’t count out the Blue Devils to surprise some people in Scheyer’s first NCAA Tournament.
Michael: How about Texas A&M? The Aggies haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since former coach Billy Kennedy guided them to a pair of Sweet 16 appearances in 2016 and 2018, but that seems certain to change this season. The reclamation project by head coach Buzz Williams has improved the Aggies from 8-10 in 2020-21 to 27-13 and an NIT runner-up finish in 2021-22, a year in which Texas A&M was arguably the best team not to make the NCAA Tournament. He has this team sitting at 22-8 overall and 14-3 in the SEC.
The Aggies have won 15 of their last 18 games and sit second in the conference behind Alabama. Some of Texas A&M’s advanced metrics hint at a potential recipe for postseason success. Williams’ squad ranks 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency to reflect the kind of balance necessary to win different styles of games. His team is also eighth nationally in offensive rebound percentage and third nationally in free-throw rate, meaning how often the Aggies get to the free-throw line. The biggest concern would be a lack of perimeter shooting: Guard Wade Taylor IV is their only player with more than 35 made 3s this season.
Andy: Michigan State. Tom Izzo is convinced the Spartans will make a run. I agree. Tyson Walker has been sensational as a lead guard. He can score 30 on a given night. Jaden Akins is finally healthy and playing up to his potential. A.J. Hoggard is making better decisions. Joey Hauser can make timely 3s. And Malik Hall is still a big-game player. The frontcourt doesn’t have headline names, but they all stay in their lane and know their roles. The loss to Iowa was crushing, but it was a strong indicator of how good the offense can be if they are given the opportunity to run. This team is running on fumes due to the tragedy on campus. But they are playing with more of a purpose. The Spartans aren’t being projected as a deep-run team, but don’t be surprised to see them in the Elite Eight.
What are your three favorite storylines that fans should follow this month?
Michael:
1. Will someone from the Big Ten finally win it all? More than 20 years have passed since Michigan State and Izzo cut down the nets in 2000, the last time anyone from the conference captured a national title. Some believe Purdue has the makings of a championship contender, but the Boilermakers have dropped four of their last six games as they limp into March. Perhaps the dynamic duo of Jackson-Davis and Hood-Schifino can propel Indiana to the summit for the first time since Bob Knight prowled the sideline in 1987. Either way, it’s long overdue.
2. What does John Calipari have in the tank? A decade came and went since Calipari led Kentucky to a national championship during his third season with the Wildcats in 2011-12. Since then, Kentucky has reached two Elite Eights and one Final Four but hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2019. When the Wildcats lost to Georgia in early February, sinking to 16-9 overall and 7-5 in the SEC, there was discussion about Calipari’s job security. His team has bounced back by winning four straight games at the end of February, and now Kentucky must carry that formula into March.
3. Can the ACC do anything in March? What a disastrous season it’s been for a league that has faded toward the back of the power conference pecking order. The only ACC teams in the latest Top 25 poll were No. 13 Virginia, which has lost back-to-back games, No. 16 Miami, which lost to lowly Florida State over the weekend, and No. 25 Pittsburgh, which has won eight of its last nine games but continues to be overlooked by most voters. Duke is in decent shape to earn an at-large bid — likely somewhere in the 5-seed to 7-seed range — but the only other potential entrants are North Carolina, North Carolina State and Clemson, barring an unexpected run in the conference tournament. There doesn’t seem to be a national title contender from the ACC this season.
Andy:
1. Will Kansas win the title again? The Jayhawks beat North Carolina for the 2022 national championship. The consensus was that Kansas couldn’t win the championship again. But now Kansas is going to be in a prime position as a likely No. 1 seed. Kansas has had player of the year performances from Jalen Wilson. Freshman Gradey Dick has been a big-time talent. Kevin McCullar has brought his defensive prowess from Texas Tech. And KJ Adams Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr. have elevated their games. This team is smaller than past Kansas teams, but it hasn’t been a major issue, thus far.
The Big Ten in March: The Big Ten will likely get the most teams in the field. But how many will the league advance to the Sweet 16/Elite Eight and will one get to the Final Four? Remember, the Big Ten has had plenty of Final Four teams and a number that have played for the title — Wisconsin in 2015, Michigan in 2013 and 2018, Illinois in 2005, Ohio State in 2007, Indiana in 2002 and Michigan State in 2009. So, the opportunities have been there to get a title after the Spartans won in 2000. Let’s see if they can get another chance.
The blue bloods: Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina have flirted with being left out of the field of 68. But that’s unlikely to happen. All three should be in the field. Yet, they could have some of their lowest seeds in quite some time. Don’t be surprised if one or two of them are double-digit seeds. That means their first-round games will be difficult. But all three of them have the talent to make a run to Houston. How each one fares in the first weekend will be must-see TV.
John:
1. Can Trayce Jackson-Davis and Indiana win the Big Ten Tournament for the first time and make a run to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016? The Hoosiers making noise in March is fun for college basketball. Mike Woodson doing it after being doubted when he was hired would be an interesting story.
2. How does Drew Timme write the final chapters of his Gonzaga career? This is why he came back, to lead the Zags to a national title. While there have been some lows for this group, they’ve won six in a row and maybe the irony is that in a year further from their standards in the regular season, the Zags make a deep run behind Timme with the wide-open climate across the country.
3. The Big East Tournament is going to be special. As many as six teams – Marquette, Xavier, Providence, Creighton, UConn and Villanova — could realistically come away with the tournament title next week. This league has four teams ranked inside the top 20 of the AP Poll and multiple squads capable of advancing to the second weekend in the NCAA Tournament, if not beyond. Could Villanova, who has won five of its last six, be a bid stealer behind Justin Moore?
It’s going down at Madison Square Garden next week.
What bubble team do you have your eye on this week?
Andy: Auburn. The Tigers have lost seven of 10 and end the regular season with games at Alabama and at home against Tennessee. The flip side is that they are two golden opportunities for Quad 1 wins. If the Tigers get a split they should be fine. But if Auburn were to get swept in the final week of the season, then the pressure will mount in the SEC Tournament. Auburn is 2-8 in Quad 1 games and 36 in the NET through Monday. Nothing is guaranteed for Auburn in the NCAA Tournament selection process. So keep an eye on the Tigers over the next 10 days.
John: Arizona State. The Sun Devils were one of the surprising stories in college basketball through the first two months of the season, starting 11-1. But ASU was firmly on the wrong side of the bubble entering this past weekend … until Desmond Cambridge’s 60-foot shot at the buzzer lifted the Sun Devils past archrival Arizona in Tucson in a shocker. At 4-3 in Quad 1 and 5-5 in Quad 2 while owning a Quad 4 loss, the Sun Devils are still rather bubbly. But they changed their season significantly this past Saturday. Going 1-1 this week should help their cause, while 2-0 would put them into the dance. The slate: at UCLA on Thursday, at USC on Saturday (11 p.m. ET, FS1).
Michael: Michigan (17-12, 11-7 Big Ten). For the second consecutive season, head coach Juwan Howard’s team is on the verge of squeaking into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a flurry of good results at the end of the season. A 3-point heave by Hunter Dickinson forced overtime against Wisconsin on Sunday in a game the Badgers should have won, but the emerging backcourt duo of Kobe Bufkin and Dug McDaniel helped push Michigan over the line. Once mired at 11-10 overall and 5-5 in the league, the Wolverines have won six of their last eight to vault themselves onto the bubble with two regular-season games remaining: at Illinois and at Indiana. Howard’s team is 3-5 on the road against Big Ten opponents.
Hunter Dickinson's dramatic 3-pointer
Which mid-major conference tournament should fans be watching?
John: Arch Madness in St. Louis! I’m talking about the Missouri Valley Conference, which continually delivers the goods in this tournament. This year should be no different, with regular-season champion Bradley entering the league tournament on a 10-game winning streak. Sometimes, that can carry a certain type of pressure entering a stage like this, so it will be interesting to see how a team rooted in defense does. Drake had won 10 straight games before falling to the Braves on Sunday in the battle for the regular-season crown, meaning a rematch for the tournament title would be spicy. March is a time for family stories, and the Bulldogs have it with head coach Darian DeVries coaching his son and leading scorer, Tucker (18.9 PPG).
Belmont can light it up from downtown, averaging 10 3s per game behind senior guard Ben Sheppard, while Southern Illinois is solid defensively and has a terrific duo in Marcus Domask and Lance Jones. Don’t count out Indiana State, Missouri State or Murray State either in this bracket. We could see some theatrics this weekend from the MVC, and don’t be surprised if the champion makes noise on the Big Dance floor. Two years ago, when Loyola Chicago and Drake made the tournament, they combined for three wins — and as many financial units — for the league.
Michael: As mid-major tournaments go, the Conference USA bracket is really interesting. The regular-season champion, Florida Atlantic, bounced in and out of the Top 25 polls throughout the season as head coach Dusty May authored a 26-3 campaign with a 16-2 record in conference play. May, the former Florida assistant coach, is now one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel and should be in line for a bigger job.
But the Owls aren’t the only quality program in the league this season. Conference USA has three teams ranked among the top 60 in KenPom — No. 31 FAU, No. 55 North Texas, No. 57 UAB — and they’ll all be campaigning for an at-large bid if things go awry in the next few days. North Texas finished second in the league standings with a record of 23-6 overall and 14-4 in Conference USA, while UAB was close behind in third place at 22-8 overall and 13-6 in the conference. The harsh reality is that Conference USA is still viewed as a one-bid league by most bracketologists as postseason play begins this week. That means two quality programs will be watching the NCAA Tournament from home unless some of the other bubble teams crumble between now and Selection Sunday — especially the ones from bigger conferences. The Owls, the Mean Green and the Blazers will be rooting against all potential bid stealers from the power leagues.
Andy: The Missouri Valley. Arch Madness will be incredibly competitive. Bradley beat Drake in the regular-season finale Sunday. But don’t be surprised to see any combination of Southern Illinois, Belmont, Missouri State, Indiana State and or Northern Iowa playing for the final Sunday in St. Louis. The winner will likely be in the 12-14 range of seeding. And whoever wins the AQ will be a tough out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.
Read more:
- 2023 College Basketball Power Rankings: Which teams can take advantage of the chaos?
- NCAA Bubble Watch 2023: Much-needed wins for UNC, Arizona State, more
- Which struggling blue bloods presents betting value for March Madness title run?
- Jalen Hood-Schifino makes difference as Indiana upsets No. 5 Purdue
