Florida State, Rutgers trending upward; Memphis in trouble
By Andy Katz
FOX Sports College Basketball Analyst
Postponements. Cancellations. Angst.
All of that happened in men’s college basketball over the past month. But what didn’t change was the yearly anointment of teams too early in the season.
Too often, teams are given a "pass" to the tournament before the new year even arrives. But this past week showed that early reads on teams aren't always accurate.
To be clear: The season is not over for any of the teams below by any stretch. Some have renewed hope, while others face major concerns.
Let’s discuss.
Who has a pulse, and who's in trouble? I CBB on FOX
Teams with a pulse:
Texas A&M (15-2, 4-0)
The Aggies were hardly a team of note in the SEC in the preseason or even during nonconference play. They had a legit shot to take down Wisconsin in Las Vegas in the first round of the Maui Invitational but couldn’t hold a lead.
They went on to win the final two games of the event against Butler and Notre Dame, and the only blemish since that Wisconsin loss was a four-point, neutral-court loss to TCU. The Aggies took down Arkansas and Ole Miss at home before notching an impressive road win over Missouri. We will find out where the Aggies stand this week, with Kentucky on Wednesday and a visit to Arkansas on Saturday before LSU in Baton Rouge the following week.
Northwestern (9-6, 2-4)
The Wildcats beat Michigan State without Pete Nance over the weekend in East Lansing, giving them their second Big Ten road win. Home losses to Michigan State, Penn State and Maryland after holding leads stings.
But they have plenty of chances upcoming with Wisconsin on Tuesday before road games at Purdue and Michigan.
Arkansas (12-5, 2-3)
The Hogs were a trendy NCAA Tournament pick early after they won the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City, but then they fell flat and lost five of six in December and early January.
However, an impressive win over Missouri followed by a road win against LSU has changed the direction of this team. A home game against Texas A&M on Saturday will be telling.
Marquette (12-6, 4-3)
The Golden Eagles have won four in a row under Shaka Smart, including against Providence and Seton Hall. They already have wins over Illinois, Ole Miss and West Virginia, as well as a road win at Kansas State.
The next four games at Villanova, against Xavier, at Seton Hall and at Providence will be crucial.
Florida State (10-5, 4-2)
Leonard Hamilton always finds a way in the ACC. Florida State just needed time. The Seminoles have won three in a row (4-2 in the ACC), including knocking off Miami after the ‘Canes had just beaten Duke.
Mississippi State (12-4, 3-1)
The Bulldogs’ 78-76 win over Alabama was season-changing. They have wins over Arkansas and, at 3-1, must be taken seriously in the SEC.
The biggest tests for the Bulldogs will come at Kentucky on Jan. 25 and at Texas Tech on Jan. 29.
Rutgers (10-6, 4-2)
Geo Baker is healthy, Ron Harper Jr. is scoring, and the Scarlet Knights have won five of six, including beating Michigan at home. The home win against Purdue has great shelf life, and knocking off Maryland on the road gives Rutgers that much-needed road win.
TCU (12-2, 2-1)
The Horned Frogs had a COVID pause but have come back with two wins in the Big 12, at Kansas State and over Oklahoma in OT. The win over Texas A&M will have legs.
Murray State (15-2, 5-0)
The Racers had a win at Memphis and an early loss to Auburn. But Murray State is 15-2 and 5-0 in the Valley after beating rival Belmont by 22 in Nashville. This team has at-large credentials.
Rutgers wins on incredible buzzer-beater by Ron Harper Jr.
Teams in trouble:
Louisville (10-7, 4-3)
The Cardinals have lost three in a row, including by 12 at Pitt. They’ve already lost at Western Kentucky and at home to Furman, DePaul and NC State. They are flailing at 10-7 and 4-3 in the ACC.
Syracuse (8-9, 2-4)
The Orange have lost four of five, including home games against Virginia and Florida State. Add those two to a home loss to Colgate earlier in the season, and Syracuse is nowhere near a tournament team.
Virginia (10-7, 4-3)
The Cavaliers are inconsistent again after losing two of three games, including at home to Wake Forest. In their previous two home losses, the Cavaliers scored 50 and 55 points.
Memphis (9-7, 3-3)
It looked like things were heading in the right direction for the Tigers with wins over Wichita State, Tulsa and Cincinnati. But since then, they have lost two in a row: last week at UCF and at East Carolina at the buzzer. They had little room for error, having already whiffed against Iowa State, Georgia, Ole Miss and Murray State.
The win over Alabama stands out, but there were too many other faults. Beating SMU on Thursday is a must. The first of two Houston games is Feb. 12 on the road. Memphis still has the goods to win the American Tournament. But if the Tigers don’t change their direction, that might be this team's only way into the field.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on FOX Sports and Big Ten Network platforms, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
