FSU Basketball: Ranking 5 Hardest ACC Games This Season
With FSU basketball has finished the non-conference portion of the season, we look ahead and preview the five hardest games on their ACC schedule.
It was a successful, albeit easy, run through the non-conference schedule for coach Leonard Hamilton and his FSU basketball team. The Seminoles currently sit with a 12-1 record – the lone loss coming to the Temple Owls. We’ve been over it countless times, but just to reiterate, FSU did not have a challenging out-of-conference (OOC) schedule. It ranked in the mid-200’s on KenPom.
But it was encouraging that when the team did get a chance to play two tough teams in Florida and Minnesota, they secured both victories. That gives them two very solid OOC wins, which will look great for the selection committee come March.
However, things are about to get a whole lot tougher for the ‘Noles. In their next seven games, they will face five teams currently ranked in the top 25 of the coaches poll. Four of those teams are in the top 11 of the ranking. Thanks to their good start, right now, the Seminoles are being given a 75 percent chance of earning a bid for the NCAA Tournament (via TeamRankings).
Bracket expert Joe Lunardi projects them to be a seventh seed when the tournament rolls around, so things are looking up for FSU basketball! Now, it’s time to look ahead to ACC play, and rank the five toughest games the ‘Noles will play.
Dec 21, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Jaylen Johnson (10) goes up for a dunk against Kentucky Wildcats guard De
No. 5: vs. Louisville (January 21st)
The Louisville Cardinals are 11-1, with their only loss coming in a close game against No. 6 Baylor. If you watch college basketball, you will know that they played in a pretty big game on Wednesday night, too.
The Cardinals faced off with the fifth-ranked Kentucky Wildcats, in what is one of the ugliest rivalries in the country. Louisville won the game 73-70, earning them bragging rights for a year in the Bluegrass State.
KenPom ranks Louisville as the best defensive team in the country. (The school right behind them at number two is also coming up on our countdown.) And though their offense is inconsistent, ranking 35th overall without a single player averaging at least 12 points, their defense is good enough to get them to the Final Four.
Also making this game extremely difficult is the fact that it comes at the end of the "five ranked teams in seven games" stretch. So FSU basketball, fresh off of hosting Duke, travelling to UNC, and facing Notre Dame, get to come home and play against the toughest defense in college basketball. Fun.
Dec 21, 2016; Greensboro, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Grayson Allen (3) talks with a referee in the second half against the Elon Phoenix at Greensboro Coliseum. Duke defeated Elon 72-61. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4: vs. Duke (January 10th)
This game was going to be higher up on our list, until this happened:
Meanwhile Grayson Allen continues to trip people….
Absolutely appalling. https://t.co/ttWbEugF7U
— Kentucky! #BBN (@UKBasketbalI) December 22, 2016
After what was just his latest tripping incident, coach Mike Krzyzewski announced that Grayson Allen would be suspended indefinitely. He’s Duke’s most veteran player, with experience in winning a national title game. Although he’s gotten off to a slow start this season, he’s still good for 16 points, five rebounds and four assists a night. So if he doesn’t suit up against Florida State, his absence would be a major one.
Not to worry though, Duke fans! Even if he doesn’t play, the Blue Devils have an astonishing seven other players who are also former McDonald’s All-Americans.
The team ranks second overall on KenPom with the number three offense and number eight defense. The roster overall is quite frankly absurd. Duke brings future NBA lottery picks like Harry Giles and Marques Bolden off the bench. They have shooters, scorers, rebounders, and even a wealth of experience.
Even though FSU basketball hosts this game, and Duke could be missing an important piece, it will still be quite the challenge for the Seminoles to pull out a win.
Dec 21, 2016; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams (center) reacts during the second half against the Northern Iowa Panthers at Dean E. Smith Center. The Tar Heels won 85-42. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3: at North Carolina (January 14th)
The only team in the ACC that can come close to boasting as much talent as Duke is North Carolina. The Tar Heels have six former McDonald’s All-Americans on the roster. They are ranked fifth on KenPom, top 10 in both offense and defense. They are one of only four schools who can make that claim.
Carolina’s only two losses thus far this season were against #5 Kentucky and #16 Indiana, two blue-blood programs with high expectations of their own. FSU basketball typically don’t have much success playing in Chapel Hill, with their last win at the Dean Smith Center coming in 2010.
Further, the Tar Heels don’t recruit "one-and-done" players like Kentucky or Duke, meaning their roster is a veteran one. Three of their four leading scorers are juniors, and the fourth is a senior. It’s safe to say that UNC is not only quite talented, but very experienced as well.
A road game at Chapel Hill will be a good teaching tool for coach Hamilton and his young Seminoles. Just don’t expect them to come out of there with a win.
Nov 30, 2016; Charlottesville, VA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard London Perrantes (32) reacts after making a three-point field goal against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavaliers won 63-61. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2: at Virginia (December 31st)
The Virginia Cavaliers lost their two best players off last year’s Elite Eight squad. However, this season, they seem to have picked up right where they left off. No, I don’t mean blowing a 16-point second half lead against Syracuse in their bigges3t game of the season. I meant that they’ve gone right back to being an elite defensive team.
According to KenPom, the Cavaliers play the second best defense in the country, behind just Louisville. Thanks to that defense, Virginia is currently 10-1, with the only loss coming to the 12th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers.
The team is led by senior point guard London Perrantes, who scores 10 points and dishes out four assists per game. And though he’s their only player who averages double digits in points, Virginia still has the tenth best adjusted offensive efficiency in all of college basketball.
Just like almost every year under head coach Tony Bennett, the Cavaliers play at an extremely slow pace. They average the lowest number of possessions per game in the country. So they force you to play at their tempo, which is something that FSU basketball will struggle against. The Seminoles are at their best when they play fast, and can get easy buckets in transition. Unless they can get Virginia to speed up, they will have a hard time scoring a lot of points in this contest.
It’s hard to see Florida State getting Virginia to change the way they play, especially since the game is in Charlottesville. That’s another reason why this matchup ranks so highly on our list. It’s the Seminoles’ first true road game all year.
For a young team to face an experienced squad like the Cavaliers, who know exactly what they want to do on both ends, won’t be easy. And to have that game be away from Tallahassee, in their first true road game of the year, no less? Yeah, um, let’s just stick with "won’t be easy."
Feb 25, 2016; Durham, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles center Chris Koumadje (21) dunks during the first half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1: at Duke (February 28th)
We already went over how good Duke is; they’re replete with talent and have experience in big games. This match-up will be even tougher for FSU because Cameron Indoor Stadium is one of the best home court advantages in the country.
Plus, barring something totally unforeseen happening (like coach Krzyzewski actually disciplining one of his players), Allen should be back from suspension by the time this game rolls around. So the Blue Devils will be at home, playing with their full roster, and humming on all cylinders. They’ll even have time to get freshman forward Harry Giles fully back from his offseason knee surgery. (The young big man was once the top-rated recruit in the country.)
This game will be challenging, but it’s not like Florida State hasn’t faced these sorts of odds before. I mean, who could forget what happened in 2012, when Michael Snaer and the Seminoles traveled to Durham to play against another Duke team stock-full of NBA talent.
Sure, that Florida State team was full of veteran players, who had traveled to places like Cameron Indoor and the Dean Smith Center before.
But this year’s edition of FSU basketball is much more talented. Both Dwayne Bacon and Jonathon Isaac could go in the first round of next year’s draft. While none of the guys off that 2012 FSU team are currently in the NBA (not knocking them, they were a fun squad to root for, just not the most skilled).
I’m not promising a win here. Just don’t be surprised when Bacon rises up and hits a game-winning three before falling into the arms of his oncoming teammates. Not only has it happened in this series before, Bacon himself has done it to another rival; on the road, too.
This game isn’t a must-win by any means. In fact, even if Florida State loses all five of the ones we just listed, they should still be in pretty good shape to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Nonetheless, if they can steal just one or two victories from this countdown? They’ll be a top five seed, at the very least. So let’s hope we’re in store for some magic once ACC play begins.
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