Here's how the entire top 10 could lose in the NCAA tourney's first weekend
Perhaps you heard: College basketball is wild this year.
One year ago, we had this thing called hierarchy. The Final Four consisted of three teams who were ranked in the top four in the preseason AP poll. The fourth, Arizona, was in the Elite Eight.
This season? Two teams in the preseason top 10 look uncertain at-large teams, and a handful more teams in the preseason top 25 are sitting near the bubble today. We've seen a record number of ranked teams lose to unranked teams this season.
If all this continues, we might be in for the craziest NCAA tournament we've seen in ... well, maybe in forever?
You may think your team is sitting pretty. You may think you're a shoo-in for the Sweet Sixteen. You are wrong. No team is sitting pretty this year. All of them can lose in the first weekend.
Here's a hypothetical scenario how every single team ranked in the top 10 in the AP poll doesn't make it out of that first weekend -- plus a couple of bonus bluebloods who aren't ranked in the top 10.
Once upon a time, Bill Self referred to three-pointers as "fool's gold" -- a nice, shiny thing that you appreciate when you have it but that should not define great basketball. Well, this year's Kansas team is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. Its team shooting percentage is nearly 43 percent, fourth-best in college hoops. But in its four losses Kansas is shooting 32 percent from three.
Kansas will be a one-seed in the tournament. The Jayhawks will breeze through their first-round game, but in the second round will run into Syracuse, a dangerous eight-seed. Syracuse is one of the nation's best at defending three pointers (opponents make only 30.2 percent of threes against the Orange, ninth-lowest in the nation). The famously streaky Wayne Selden goes 1-8 from three. Frank Mason doesn't fare much better, going 1-5 from three. And there aren't any other alpha dogs Bill Self can turn to. The famously dependable Perry Ellis does dependable Perry Ellis things -- gets 18 points, grabs 11 rebounds -- but it's not enough, and Syracuse wins in a painfully low-scoring contest. Kansas fans grumble about another Big 12 title that went to waste in the postseason. Every other fan base in the Big 12 curses their name and speaks about first-world problems.
Nobody is playing better than Michigan State heading into March. Denzel Valentine is making a legit push at the national player of the year award that we all thought Buddy Hield had wrapped up back in February. Bryn Forbes is shooting like a madman, hitting threes at a rate upwards of 50 percent, good for second in college hoops. But in the second round, Michigan State faces its opposite: A flagging USC team that lost five of its final six regular season games, and a team that is fast-paced, long, athletic and inexperienced. The thing with inexperience? You never know what you're going to get. And USC (17thin the country in average length of offensive possessions) runs all over Michigan State (342nd in the country in average length of defensive possessions). Valentine and Forbes shoot like average humans from three, while USC's Jordan McLaughlin and Bennie Boatwright catch fire. Michigan State fans, all of whom believe Tom Izzo has some sort of magical powers when the calendar changes to March 1, are mocked around the internet with that awful, awful Michael Jordan crying meme. Donald Trump makes banning the meme part of his campaign because it shows American weakness.
Just like a year ago, when one-seeded Villanova lost to a talented, athletic, underachieving N.C. State team, Villanova runs into a talented, athletic, underachieving Vanderbilt team in the second round. Villanova jacks up tons of threes, just like they always do (Jay Wright's team is 19th in college basketball in percentage of total shots that are three-pointers), and just like they always do, the Wildcats don't make too many of them. (Villanova ranks 234th in the country in three-point shooting percentage.) Meanwhile, Vanderbilt looks as good as it has looked all year. Seven-footers Damian Jones and Luke Kornet carve up the undersized Villanova front line. Wade Baldwin makes a bunch of threes and shows why he could become a lottery pick. Dumb people who rip on Jay Wright are given more ammunition for their "can't win in March" arguments, forgetting his 2009 Final Four run ever happened.
No team is better than Virginia at controlling a game's tempo. On offense, they wait until they get a great shot instead of just a good shot. On defense they take away any opportunities for great shots and make teams settle for mediocre shots. It's a remarkable identity. But what if the Cavaliers run into their mid-major corollary in a matchup between a two-seed and a 10-seed: The Valparaiso Crusaders. Valparaiso's defense doesn't look exactly like Virginia's. They trap more than Virginia; they don't play that Tony Bennett pack-line defense. But Valpo has, in star player Alec Peters, someone who'd fit right in with a Tony Bennett team: An ego-less player who is happy to do the dirty work and can shoot the three (46 percent on the season). With Valparaiso down two to Virginia with 2.5 seconds left, head coach Bryce Drew calls timeout, huddles his team up, puts his finger in Peter's chest and says three words: "Bryce Drew Play." Peters buries the three at the buzzer to advance to the Sweet 16.
Xavier becomes a trendy pick to win it all as a two-seed -- in fact, this very reporter picks Chris Mack's team to win it all -- and the hype goes to this young team's head. Jalen Reynolds comes into the second half in foul trouble, then fouls out early. The electric J.P. Macura gets in early foul trouble as well. So does top scorer Trevon Bluiett. Early in the second half, after another questionable foul call, Chris Mack gets his second technical and is ejected. Joel Bolomby of 15-seed Weber State is able to hang in there on the boards against Xavier's more athletic team. Weber State does what it does best -- gets to the free-throw line -- and Xavier goes down to the 15-seed in the biggest upset of the first weekend.
The first two and a half months of the season, Oklahoma shot upwards of 46 percent from three, which would have been the highest three-point shooting percentage in college basketball in a quarter century. Over the next eight games starting with the Sooners' road loss to Kansas State, the Sooners shot 34 percent from three, which would have ranked 190th in college basketball. They went 4-4 in that span. Solving Oklahoma seems easy to explain if still difficult to do: Make sure the second-best three-point shooting team in college basketball doesn't make threes. As a two-seed, Oklahoma faces 15th-seeded UAB. It's not that UAB does particularly well at stopping threes, but the threes just don't fall at Oklahoma's typical rate in the first half, and UAB's stout interior defense (third in the nation in block percentage) manages to absolutely smother anything Oklahoma tries to do inside. At half, Oklahoma is down 10. In the second half, the team that knows how to deal with March (UAB beat Iowa State last year as a 14-seed) maintains composure.
College basketball's most dangerous but most inconsistent team is flying high heading into March, a one-seed after winning the ACC tournament. But then two things happen: Marcus Paige sprains an ankle at the end of the ACC title game, and UNC faces Northern Iowa in the second round. You may remember back in November, when Paige was injured and UNC lost at UNI. UNI point guard Wes Washpun controls the game from the perimeter, UNI's shooters make half their threes, and UNI's bigs are able to hang in there against a much bigger, deeper Carolina front line. In the stands, UNC's most famous alum, Michael Jordan, is photographed crying, and a whole new meme starts up. Donald Trump drops out of the presidential race.
The talented Ducks get a two-seed, and fans are pumped for a realistic shot at the school's first Final Four since 1939. Until, that is, they see their draw. Opposite Oregon is 10-seed Gonzaga, an equally talented team that was ranked ninth in the country in the preseason AP poll, then underachieved. But six of Gonzaga's seven losses were by five points or less, so they are considered easily the most dangerous double-digit seed in the tournament. Gonzaga's big men dominate Oregon. Domantas Sabonis shows why he could be drafted as high as the lottery in June's NBA draft, grabbing a career-high 21 rebounds and blocking five shots. Kyle Wiltjer shows why he was considered a national player of the year candidate going into the season, making eight threes and scoring a season-high 36 points.
Bob Huggins' two-seeded Mountaineers strike fear into every team on their side of the bracket because of their impossible-to-prepare-for Press Virginia style. Every team except 10-seed Temple. Temple has a similar profile as the Texas team that beat West Virginia twice during the regular season, games in which West Virginia only could force 15 turnovers total. Only one team in the entire country is better at taking care of the ball than Temple and its turnover percentage of only 13.7 percent. West Virginia simply can't turn the Owls over -- and with this team where everything revolves around that press, Bob Huggins can't figure where else to turn.
Few teams spread the floor and make shots more consistently than Tom Crean's team. The fact that he has turned this team from what looked like a disaster in early December into a top-10 team in March put Tom Crean's name into all sorts of national coach of the year discussions. But this is also the team that lost to Penn State in February when the Hoosiers shot only 33 percent from three and turned the ball over 15 times, so clearly they're susceptible to bad nights against lesser teams. And that's what the Hoosiers have in the NCAA tournament's second round when they run into 11-seed San Diego State -- a team that can flat-out defend, with the nation's second-ranked team defense. The threes don't fall for Indiana, and the Hoosiers are unable to get much going in the post either. San Diego State mucks it up for an ugly 61-50 win. It's not lost on disgruntled Hoosier fans that that is the same score Indiana lost to Syracuse by in 2013 after a season in which Tom Crean reinvigorated the program and brought it to No. 1 in the AP poll. Hoosier fans who forget just how far Crean has brought Indiana in his eight years start grumbling again.
A year ago, Kentucky's massive size would have manhandled Purdue's massive size. But this year ain't last year, and Kentucky ain't massive no more. In fact, they're kind of small, while the Purdue frontcourt -- a five-seed playing four-seed Kentucky -- are absolute giants, one of college basketball's tallest teams. Purdue's tandem of seven-footers, AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas, dominate the glass and block 10 shots. Purdue's Caleb Swanigan out-energies Alex Poythress. Kentucky's saving grace could have been hitting three-pointers, but just like when Kentucky lost at Tennessee earlier this year, Jamal Murray makes only three of 12 threes, and Kentucky bows out of the NCAA tournament in the first weekend for the first time in the John Calipari era. After the game, Calipari calls up LeBron, talks about the new Kendrick Lamar album, and asks, "By the way, how things are going with Tyronn Lue?"
OK, Maryland is no blueblood, but Mark Turgeon's team has blueblood talent this year. The Terrapins also may be the most underwhelming use of talent in college basketball. As a four-seed, Maryland faces five-seed Texas in the second round. Knowing Maryland is one of the most turnover-prone teams in the tournament, Shaka Smart dials up some Havoc-style pressing, and Maryland simply can't handle it. Melo Trimble turns the ball over eight times, and Diamond Stone and Robert Carter can't dominate the post against Conner Lammert and Prince Ibeh. Mark Turgeon's team has the most disappointing season this side of LSU.
Going into the tournament, Duke is considered the toughest five-seed that there is. Nobody wants to be in their region, because you could make an argument theirs is the hottest starting five in college basketball -- and the two best scorers on one team in Brandon Ingram and Grayson Allen. But in the first round, the Blue Devils are paired with a devastatingly tough draw: 12-seed Wichita State. Wichita State's slow-it-down pace kills Duke's energy. The game goes into overtime, and Duke's legs give out against a Wichita State team that has one of college basketball's most-used benches. There was evidence this was going to happen all season -- after all, only four teams in college basketball use their benches less than Duke uses its bench -- but after Fred VanVleet hits a buzzer-beating three, Duke is still shocked to get bounced so early a year after winning it all. As he walks off the court, Grayson Allen "accidentally" trips Coach K.
Follow Reid Forgrave on Twitter @reidforgrave or email him at ReidForgrave@gmail.com.
