Iowa Basketball: Hawkeyes Will Be Great In 2018-2019
A look at the Iowa Hawkeyes’ potential roster for the 2018-19 season
Despite upsetting Iowa State, Iowa basketball‘s 5-5 start to the season is underwhelming. The Hawkeyes already have more than half the losses they had last regular season.
Plus, it’s very unlikely that Iowa will crack the AP top-25 this year, let alone be ranked third in the country. Not to mention, their three-year NCAA Tournament streak will come to an end barring a massive turnaround.
Since Iowa basketball doesn’t attract multiple five-star recruits like Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and other college basketball powerhouses do, the Hawkeyes are in a cycle where they’re never terrible but only every couple of years have a team that is a legitimate threat nationally and in the conference.
This is not one of those years, last year was. Even with the addition of Tyler Cook, it’s not surprising this season has turned into a rebuilding year.
It’s why Fran McCaffery‘s ability to win 20-plus games four straight years is impressive considering the turnover he’s faced. He’s lost key players like Jarrod Uthoff, Aaron White and Roy Devyn Marble in consecutive years, yet has continued to stay competitive in the Big Ten.
He’s been able to maintain success because he constantly has a couple of key players replacing seniors. While he has Peter Jok to lean on this year, the rest of Iowa’s rotation has mostly underclassmen.
Jok won’t get the sweet senior ending that most players have gotten under McCaffery, but this team is showing the immense potential everyone hoped they would. That being said, the cycle of Iowa returning to near the top of the conference should happen again in just a couple of seasons.
With Connor McCaffery and Luka Garza, both highly touted recruits, joining Iowa next year, the Hawkeyes should be even better.
Iowa won’t have a senior like Jok leading them, however Cook, Cordell Pemsl, Jordan Bohannon, Isaiah Moss and Ahmad Wagner will all have a year of experience under their belt. The way that Iowa’s freshmen are playing this year, their 2016 class has a chance to rival Iowa’s insanely effective 2012 class — featured Adam Woodbury, Mike Gesell and Anthony Clemmons.
With the way Cook and Pemsl have dominated the paint this year, Bohannon’s innate ability to lead an offense, Wagner’s and Moss’ versatility and athleticism, the Hawkeyes will have a ton of potential on their roster moving forward.
Although, the true target year for the Hawkeyes is 2018-19 when they add a four-star shooting guard in Joe Wieskamp.
Of course, players can de-commit from the Hawkeyes, leave for the NBA or transfer in that span. Plus, not every player reaches their full potential, however, when looking at Iowa’s potential roster in 2018-19, it’s hard not to be excited about the future.
Here’s a look at Iowa’s potential 2018-19 roster:
Starters
PG: Jordan Bohannon (JR)
SG: Isaiah Moss (JR)
SF: Connor McCaffery (SO)
PF: Tyler Cook (JR)
C: Luka Garza (SO)
Bench
PG: Christian Williams (SR)
SG: Joe Wieskamp (FR)
SG: Brady Ellingson (SR)
SF: Nicholas Baer (SR)
SF: Ahmad Wagner (SR)
PF: Cordell Pemsl (JR)
PF: Jack Nunge (SO)
To say that Iowa’s roster would be loaded is an understatement. Barring players transferring due to lack of playing time or not being happy at Iowa, or Tyler Cook leaving early for the NBA, the Hawkeyes would have a roster that could go 11 players deep.
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It’d be deeper than Iowa’s 2014-15 roster that went 22-12. Nine players played in at least 33 of Iowa’s 34 games that year and all averaged at least 10 minutes per game.
Dividing minutes on a deep roster is another story, however it’s better to have too many options than not enough. Plus, Iowa’s roster gives them a chance to matchup effectively against any team.
Unlike this year’s team that features just two players 6-9 or taller, the Hawkeyes will add great size in their four commits over the next two years — Garza is 6-11, Nunge is 6-9, McCaffery and Wieskamp are 6-6. It gives Iowa much-needed size down low and on the perimeter.
Of course, Iowa’s potential success in 2018-19 relies on the development of key players currently on their roster. It’s impossible to know how much better Iowa’s current players will be, but what they have shown so far is a positive sign.
For example, other than his shooing percentages, Nicholas Baer’s per 40 minutes numbers are already drastically better than last year. He’s averaging 13.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per 40 minutes, and this is just the former walk-on’s second season.
Also, considering how Baer handled being moved back to the bench after Iowa’s first couple of games, it’s likely he wouldn’t mind making a name for himself as one of the more valuable sixth men in the nation during his time at Iowa.
To have a future senior leader set that kind of example is contagious and has a better chance of spreading to the rest of the bench. Winning a lot of games makes it a lot easier, too.
Plus, Iowa’s current freshmen class is one of the better freshmen units in the nation, even if they don’t get the national attention. Playing significant and important minutes early in their careers will help their development and help them be ready to play in high pressure games later in their careers.
This season, Iowa’s four freshmen — Bohannon, Moss, Pemsl and Cook — combine to average 76.8 points, 27.2 rebounds, 14.3 assists, 3.3 steals and 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes.
In comparison, Kentucky’s four freshmen of De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Bam Adebayo and Wenyen Gabriel average 80.7 points, 34.9 rebounds, 16.8 assists, 5.5 steals and 5.4 blocks per 40 minutes.
Even though they’re higher marks, remember that all four of Kentucky’s freshmen are five-star recruits and likely none will still be at Kentucky in a couple of years. Therefore, while Iowa’s freshmen class is already strides ahead of where many expected them to be, and not that much statistically worse than one of the better classes in recent memory, they should continue to get better and soon put up better numbers than freshmen powerhouses.
Sure, a group of juniors out-playing freshmen doesn’t sound impressive on the surface, but it’s also the type of teams Iowa will need to beat. Kentucky won’t magically start keeping five-star recruits around for longer than a year or two, and that’s the same notion about most powerhouses.
Veteran leadership and depth are what make great teams, and Iowa will have that. It’s a big reason why Villanova won the national championship last year and look like the best team through the first month of the 2016-17 season.
Iowa’s projected roster in 2018-19 will average 2.9 years of experience, so basically a roster of all juniors. In comparison, Villanova’s average last season was 2.6 years of experience. Even though experience does not automatically equal a championship, it does help in big games when younger teams tend to fold.
Players have to stay and accept their roles, while also continuing to develop. However, the Hawkeyes have the potential to be one of the best teams in the nation in a couple of years. Their projected experience and depth will help them in big games and later in the season.
So, as hard as this season might be to watch. For as many ups-and-downs there will be. In a couple of years Iowa could be competing for another Big Ten title, and actually be the favorite in the conference.
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