Louisville Basketball: Five reasons why the Cardinals will win it all
Nov 25, 2016; Paradise Island, BAHAMAS; Louisville Cardinals guard Donovan Mitchell (45) grabs a pass away from Baylor Bears guard Al Freeman (25) during the first half in the 2016 Battle 4 Atlantis championship game in the Imperial Arena at the Atlantis Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
What are five reasons why Louisville basketball can win the National Championship?
Coming into the season, the Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Cavaliers and Louisville Cardinals were expected to be the top four teams in the ACC in no particular order. Nearly a month into the 2016-17 college basketball campaign, this holds true to form.
Duke is starting to get healthier, North Carolina looked excellent at the Maui Invitational and Virginia is still elite defensively despite losing Austin Nichols. Then there’s Louisville, who is currently 8-1 and could actually finish second in the most stacked conference in the nation.
The Cardinals have quality wins over Wichita State and Purdue, and their lone loss has come at the hands of Baylor (who is currently ranked 4th) in the Battle 4 Atlantis final.
Louisville doesn’t have nearly as much talent as the Dukes or Kentuckys of the world, but there are multiple reasons why this team will win it all.
In fact, there are five particular reasons why I can see Louisville cutting down the nets when all is said and done at the beginning of April in Phoenix, Arizona. So, what are those reasons? I will give you a rundown with explanations. If you don’t agree, feel free to tell us why in the comment section.
Dec 7, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Southern Illinois Salukis guard Leo Vincent (5) scrambles for a loose ball with Louisville Cardinals guard Donovan Mitchell (45) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Southern Illinois 74-51. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
5. Better play from Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell averaged less than 20 minutes a game in his freshman season. He also only recorded 7.4 points, 1.7 assists and shot 25 percent from three over the course of his first campaign at Louisville.
However, at the end of the season, Mitchell had five double figure scoring games in his final 10 outings. This was foreshadowing for the 2016-17 season, where Mitchell has elevated his game to another level.
So far this year, Mitchell is still struggling with his jump shot and efficiency, but he has increased his scoring average to 11.3 points per game and upped his assist and rebounding totals. He is the team’s starting shooting guard, one of the better defensive guards in the country and an elite competitor and athlete.
Mitchell has played his best games against high level competition. He scored 46 points, grabbed 23 rebounds and snagged 11 steals (including seven in one game) in three games in Atlantis. While he only scored nine points against Purdue and hasn’t scored more than 10 points in his last three games, Mitchell always seems to have an impact on defense and on the glass, and is much more comfortable offensively.
Nov 25, 2016; Paradise Island, BAHAMAS; Louisville Cardinals bench reacts during the game against the Baylor Bears in the 2016 Battle 4 Atlantis championship game in the Imperial Arena at the Atlantis Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
4. They are battle tested
Louisville could enter conference play with three losses already on their resume. The good news: Those three L’s could be against three top 10 teams, Baylor, Kentucky and Indiana.
The Cardinals play the Wildcats and Hoosiers as part of a rigorous end of December/early January slate that consists of four straight games versus ranked opponents (Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana and Notre Dame).
Beyond the future tests in both non-conference and conference play, Louisville has already faced Purdue and played in one of the best early season tournaments in the Battle 4 Atlantis. In the Bahamas, the Cards was tested with three games in three days, where they competed in a rock fight against Old Dominion, had to handle a storming comeback from Wichita State and collapsed in the second half against one of the better teams in the Big 12, Baylor.
Combine the November and December match-ups with the rigors of the ACC, and Louisville is cut out to play elite teams in March.
Dec 7, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Rick Pitino calls out instructions during the second half against the Southern Illinois Salukis at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Southern Illinois 74-51. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
3. Rick Pitino
There are only so many coaches in college hoops that are able to get the most out of their players no matter how much talent consists on the roster. Hall of Famer Rick Pitino is one of those head coaches.
Louisville is not a great offensive team. In fact, they are a poor shooting team. They score just 74.9 points per game (154th in the nation) and are shooting 31 percent from beyond the 3-point line as a team.
The Cardinals also aren’t a veteran unit. A lot of Pitino’s players (beyond Mangok Mathiang and Quentin Snider) don’t have the experience of some of the other ACC teams or national title contenders.
But not a lot of opponents have a coach with the expertise and experience of Pitino. Before last year’s NCAA Tournament ban (they would’ve made the Big Dance if it wasn’t for the escort scandal), Pitino led Louisville to nine straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
This year is no different. Louisville will hit their stride when March rolls around, no matter who is injured and no matter how hot other teams across the country are.
Nov 30, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Ray Spalding (13) battles Purdue Boilermakers forward Caleb Swanigan (50) for a rebound during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Purdue 71-64. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
2. Front court depth
While the backcourt is still a work in progress, Louisville’s front court is loaded with depth and athleticism.
Jaylen Johnson, Deng Adel, Raymond Spalding, Mangok Mathiang, Anas Mahmoud and Matz Stockman make up the rotation up front. They all have terrific length, but each player has a unique skill set that they bring to the table.
Johnson is the leading rebounder (8.2 rebounds per game), blocks 1.1 shots per game and shoots 62 percent from the field. Johnson can hit occasional mid-range jumpers but he relies mainly on his motor and toughness.
Adel plays more on the wing (three position) than the interior, but he is capable of sliding down to the four-position when Louisville does indeed opt to go “small.” He can knock down shots from the perimeter and is aggressive in straight line drive situations.
Spalding is one of the most underrated players on Louisville’s roster. He is especially valuable on defense, as he switches onto guards on the perimeter. Meanwhile, he is still rather raw offensively, but can finish around the rim when necessary.
The veteran of the bunch is Mathiang, who doesn’t provide much on offense, but is a solid team defender and rebounder. He is shooting an inefficient 43 percent and 59 percent from the free throw strike through nine games.
Despite currently dealing with a concussion (he missed the last two games), Mahmoud looks much improved on offense. He is averaging a career high in points and is shooting an incredible 74 percent from the field.
Finally, Stockman has the size and touch, but only averages 5.1 minutes per game.
Louisville doesn’t have anyone that they can consistently throw the ball to on the block, which doesn’t help their already offensively challenge team. But all these front court players provide a big lift on the defensive end of the floor and on the glass.
Dec 7, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Southern Illinois Salukis guard Armon Fletcher (22) dribbles against Louisville Cardinals forward Jaylen Johnson (10) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Southern Illinois 74-51. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
1. Louisville’s defense is stellar
The Cardinals struggle to shoot the ball from the perimeter and have very little post play, but Louisville is elite on defense.
The Cardinals have length, athleticism and toughness. They mix-and-match their defenses, playing man-to-man, a regular zone, match-up zones, a full court press and a half court press.
It’s tough to get passes past Louisville’s outstretched arms, they contest every shot on the perimeter and as the Boilermakers saw in their match-up against the Cardinals, it’s not easy to score on the interior against Rick Pitino’s team. All their bigs consistently alter shots and they have four players averaging more than one block.
The Cardinals are allowing just 58.4 points per game (12th in the nation) and they are currently ranked number one in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings.
If Louisville is creating turnovers and getting out in the open floor, they can make up for their lacking half-court offense. That’s why their defense is so important. It’s not just about the stops they get, it’s also about creating easy buckets on the other end.
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