March Madness 2021: Best first-round bets for the NCAA Tournament
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Can you feel it?
The NCAA Tournament is nearly here, following a yearlong absence due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Brackets are being furiously pored over (here's a guide to fill out a winner, by the way), and fans everywhere are double-checking their cable and streaming options to make sure they can keep up with all of the action.
With 32 games slated for the first round, here are seven picks to consider as we head into the weekend, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
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Arkansas team total over 85 points
This game is going to be an absolute track meet.
Both Arkansas and Colgate play at a furious tempo, which is why the total in the game was bet all the way up from 157 points to 163 points on Selection Sunday. Eventually, there was buyback under 163 to the current total of 161.5.
I would much rather cut the total in half and play the Razorbacks over their individual team total.
Colgate isn’t a very athletic basketball team and isn't going to be able to slow Arkansas in transition. Both teams have an average possession length of 16 seconds, so prepare for tons of shots and possessions.
If the Razorbacks are hitting their 3s, they could reach 95 points. That’s not hyperbole at all.
Wisconsin +1.5 vs. North Carolina
I’ll be rooting with the sportsbooks on this one.
I’ve already spoken to a couple of Vegas bookmakers who said they expect to be rooting pretty heavily for Wisconsin by tipoff. The market opened North Carolina -1 and was immediately bet to -2. It has pretty much settled at -1.5 across the board, but that late blue-blood push will come on Carolina as we get closer to tip.
Wisconsin is one of those teams that I love to bet in the NCAA Tournament because nobody ever thinks the Badgers are any good — well, aside from those two Final Four runs in 2014 and 2015 with Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. Sports bettors adored those teams.
The Badgers rarely beat themselves, and they take care of the rock. Their slow, deliberate style is going to frustrate the hell out of Carolina. Roy Williams’ bunch is very inexperienced, and most of the ball handlers are freshmen.
Wisconsin wins the turnover battle and wins the game as a short pup.
I absolutely hate how much love the Eagles are getting, but I’m bullish.
Before the season, I wrote down three teams on a piece of paper with the heading "NCAA Tournament Sleepers." Winthrop was first, Bryant was second, and Loyola Chicago was third.
Resilience goes a long way in my book. Winthrop won the Big South conference tournament last year and was headed to the Big Dance. Then COVID-19 canceled the party. These players didn’t sulk or make excuses. They came together and got better.
Winthrop tore through its schedule this season and finished with a 23-1 record and another conference crown. Now the Eagles face a Villanova squad without its most important player (Collin Gillespie tore his MCL earlier this month). I would love an upset, but 6.5 is too many points.
Syracuse +3 vs. San Diego State
Long live the 2-3 zone.
Jim Boeheim’s teams have busted brackets for decades with a long, rangy defensive blueprint that takes away the dribble drive and dares opponents to hoist long, contested jumpers. There’s absolutely no way for a team to prepare for Syracuse’s length and ability to rotate with responsibility.
While this defense isn’t one of the strongest that Syracuse has had over the past decade, the Orange's offense is notably better with much better shooters spaced around the floor. They are also shooting an incredible 78% from the free-throw line, which is crucial late in games.
I’ve got this one coming down to the final shot, so I’ll gladly take the points.
Rutgers and Clemson combined under 126.5
This game could easily be the first to 60 points.
It’s the total opposite of the aforementioned Arkansas-Colgate tilt. Rutgers and Clemson are both top 20 in defensive efficiency, and they love to walk the ball up the floor on offense.
Both teams value possession and prioritize good shots. If the shots aren’t falling, this game won’t touch 117, let alone 127. Don’t be surprised to flip this game on and see 55-53 with three minutes left.
Respected money has already shown for the under at a couple of sportsbooks, as we’re seeing 125.5 and 126 on the betting screen. Always shop around for the best number – every half-point counts.
We’re ruined if the game goes to overtime, but that’s life.
Rick Pitino in the house!
I love Alabama to make a deep run in the tournament this year, but I also love Iona’s senior backcourt of Isaiah Ross and Asante Gist. They are both fearless guards who ran wild in the MAAC. They will get theirs against the Tide.
It’s always dangerous when you bet a team that’s catching 17 or so because there’s a strong possibility that they’ll be down 20 at some point. But I’m counting on Pitino to piece together a solid defensive game plan that will help the Gaels stay inside the number.
Just make eight 3-pointers, and get back on defense!
Prayers up.
Does anybody like Virginia in this spot?
This point spread opened at Virginia -10.5 in Las Vegas shortly after the bracket was revealed. That bad boy moved instantaneously, from -10.5 to -8 in about 10 minutes, and it got as low as -7 by Tuesday.
Sports betting is all about the right team and the right price. This is the ultimate buy-low spot on a Virginia team that is being completely disrespected at the betting windows.
Ohio’s Jason Preston is a tremendous basketball player, but the Cavaliers are going to force the ball out of his hands and make others make plays. Virginia’s ability to slow the game to a crawl and execute teams to death is too important for me to ignore.
Plus, you’re laying a great number.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
