How sportsbooks set the lines and watch the madness of Selection Sunday
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NCAA men’s college basketball tournament is the crown jewel for American sportsbooks.
For three straight weekends from mid-March to early April, thousands and thousands of people flock into the books with their hard-earned money to try to beat the house in college buckets.
Selection Sunday is the launching point for the "Big Dance," and it doubles as one of the most pressure-packed days of the calendar year for bookmakers. There’s zero time to waste between the revealing of the field and the creation of the opening-round point spreads.
South Point Hotel and Casino sportsbook director Chris Andrews is already sharpening his pencils in preparation for his 40th Selection Sunday in the back of a Nevada book.
"We get everything up as quickly as we can," Andrews told FOX Sports. "It’s my responsibility to put up the best number, but I have to try and anticipate how the public and wise guys are going to bet."
About an hour before the brackets are made public, Andrews and his two line-making lieutenants – Vinny Magliulo and Richie Baccellieri – assemble in the back of the book to prepare for a session of rapid number-crunching. Magliulo is the sportsbook director for Gaughan Gaming, and Baccellieri is an extremely talented oddsmaker and handicapper. The trio have been friends for decades, and they each bring something vital to the equation.
"We all have our own charts of power ratings for starters," Andrews said. "That serves as the baseline. We have a general idea of which teams are going to be in, but obviously, we have no clue what the matchups are going to be. As soon as we get the matchups, it’s really kind of addition and subtraction.
"At this point, it’s probably more science than art. Thirty years ago, it was definitely more art. We have way more information at our fingertips now than we did back then. Possession rates, offensive efficiency, flow, tempo. We didn’t have all that before. It’s very helpful for some of the lesser known teams."
Andrews said he and his two partners have settled nicely into their roles within the operation, and he trusts both Magliulo and Baccellieri in their roles wholeheartedly.
"Vinny and Richie focus on the matchups, and I’m more of a numbers guy," Andrews continued. "Vinny really follows the injuries closely. He actually just texted me the injuries for the likely tournament teams. They’ll look more at how a team’s guards match up against a certain defense and things like that. They’re much better at that than I am. I highly respect those guys, which is why they’re on my team.
"Those guys are more pure handicappers, and I’m the bookmaker. I can sense when a number needs to be -8.5 instead of -7 because I know they’re gonna bet me the favorite. Or I know they’re going to bet the dog in a certain matchup, so I’ll shorten it."
Andrews even went into comparison mode.
"I’m like Martin Scorcese. Vinny kind of looks like Robert DeNiro. So I got DeNiro sitting on one couch and Al Pacino on the other couch. I can’t do their jobs, but they can’t do mine, either. They make their contributions, and my job is to put it all together and put out the final product."
The pressure in the room turns up once the first matchups are revealed.
"The selection show usually puts out pods of four games," Andrews said. "So we get the matchups, and it’s go-time. Once everybody is ready, we just go. Numbers are flying around. There’s no order. Just tell me your number when you’ve got it. I’m not looking for anybody to agree – I’m looking for disagreement. We compare all our numbers and get to the right one."
Andrews appreciates differentiation. It’s what helps him shape the right number before releasing it to the hounds.
"I don’t want everybody on my team to think the same," Andrews admitted. "It’s better when we’re all different. The final decision is mine when it comes to what number goes on the board, but I take their recommendations with a lot of weight.
"I want them to take a stand. I need that. I know how they operate, though. Richie is always biased toward the underdogs. If me and Vinny both have -8 on a game, Richie will be at -6.5. That’s just how he’s wired. So I might open -7 or -7.5. I know Richie’s a dog guy, but the bettors usually lay the favorite with us. I have to keep the big picture in mind."
Naturally, I envisioned all three guys batting around potential point spreads for Gonzaga or Baylor against Morehead State. Imagine the differentiation there. Massive point spreads of -19, -21 and -23 would all be viable possibilities.
"It’s like muscle memory," Andrews explained. "You’re making Baylor numbers all year, so you kind of know where they’re at. But when Baylor plays a team you might not know anything about in the first round, those disparities get a little dicey sometimes. And I always tell my people when somebody bets you on a big point spread, you’ve gotta move it pretty quick and move it strong.
"Anything -15 or more is very difficult. That’s where we’re all off the most. Those are the toughest ones. It’s a fine line. Who’s to say if somebody should be -16.5 or -17.5? It’s not like -2.5 or -3.5. It’s still one point, but it’s a much different one point at that handicap."
Andrews continued: "If it’s two teams that are regularly on the board from power conferences, we’re probably within a couple points each. Three points would be a big gap. Now, once you get into some of these other teams – the ones that are playing the top four seeds – those can be pretty different.
"We may not have all the necessary information on those teams. The opinions can be way different on those games."
The bettors have opinions, too. And they put their money where their mouths are. After all, South Point bettors are standing by for an opportunity to bet up to $3,000 a pop on the mobile app and $10,000 on the counter.
Mistakes are costly, and the lines move instantaneously once posted.
"It could be seconds," Andrews said. "We open the lines up on the mobile app, and it’s the Wild West. All these guys are sitting in their rooms, and they’ve done their homework, too. If they think we’re off on a number, they bet us.
"Sometimes, we’re not even off, but the arbitrageurs are out there grabbing numbers. If I put up -7 and somebody else puts up -5, they’re gonna lay that guy the five and take the seven off me. It doesn’t mean you made a wrong number. It just means there was a difference in the market."
One of the teams I can’t wait to bet this tournament is Winthrop. The Eagles won the Big South conference tournament last year, and their dancing shoes were packed. Then COVID-19 canceled their trip.
Winthrop responded with a 23-1 record and another tourney berth this year. I will definitely take whatever number they're catching in their opening game because I’m bullish.
Bookmakers such as Andrews can also take stances on sleeper teams they respect.
"I follow who the wise guys have respect for," Andrews said. "Last year, I had a really strong opinion on East Tennessee State. A lot of guys I talk to were very high on them. They were on my radar all year. I was looking to need them real big in the first round. I thought they deserved to be a 7-seed. You can take a position on a team like that."
Now you know what goes into the fast and furious process of cranking out numbers for the first round of the men's NCAA Tournament. Anticipation, calculation and expectation are all baked into the numbers, as this is clearly not a game for the sportsbooks.
Keep that in mind when you’re ready to fire.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
