College Basketball

March Madness predictions: Our picks for Final Four, national champ

Updated Mar. 13, 2023 7:03 p.m. ET

Andy Katz

College Basketball Analyst & Writer

John Fanta

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

March Madness is finally here!

As you sit down to fill out your bracket, we wouldn't blame you if your head was swimming with stats, records and a flood of information on the 68 teams who will battle for a trip to the Final Four in Houston.

We're here to help.

Before you sit down to fill out your bracket (view the full bracket here), check out our predictions for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Who will reach the Final Four? Who will bring home the championship?

Our college basketball writers Andy Katz, John Fanta and Michael Cohen share their thoughts, analysis and picks below.

Who wins the East Region and why?

Andy Katz: Purdue. The Boilermakers have the best player in the country in Zach Edey. He’s now posting 30-plus games. He was the MVP of the Big Ten tournament. Purdue has already beaten Duke and Marquette, potential Elite Eight matchups. This is the time for Purdue to finally break through to the Final Four for the first time since 1980.

John Fanta: Duke. The Blue Devils are as hot as anybody in college basketball right now, taking home an ACC Tournament championship and entering the NCAA Tournament having won nine straight games. A big reason for the progress of Jon Scheyer’s group is that everybody is healthy and the team has had time to fully mesh. Jeremy Roach is the lead guard and has shown a knack for shining on the big stage, while ACC Freshman of the Year Kyle Filipowski is one of the biggest matchup problems in the NCAA Tournament, totaling 20-or-more points in three of his last four games. The way that Tyrese Proctor has come on for Duke in recent weeks has taken some pressure off Roach, and the combination of Dereck Lively II and Mark Mitchell have done their jobs defensively. An underlying key: Dariq Whitehead as a sixth man. If Duke goes on a deep run, Whitehead’s pure scoring ability could be a game-changer.

Michael Cohen: Duke. The Blue Devils enter the NCAA Tournament having won nine consecutive games, the last three of which helped first-year coach Scheyer capture the ACC Tournament title. Scheyer’s team has developed into one of the more balanced squads in college basketball by ranking among the top 50 for both offensive and defensive efficiency. With power forward Filipowski (15.4 points per game) and guard Roach (13.3 PPG) leading the team in scoring, Duke produces a nice blend of interior and perimeter offense that isn’t overly reliant on either facet of the game. An immense frontcourt featuring small forward Mitchell at 6-foot-8, Filipowski at 7-foot and center Lively at 7-foot-1 give the Blue Devils the tallest roster in college basketball this season. That will be difficult for anyone to match, blue blood or otherwise.

[Complete breakdown of the East Region]

Who wins the South Region and why?

John: Alabama. The No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament was rightfully given the easiest path to the Final Four. Let’s look at it: a West Virginia team that is good offensively, but still finished 7-11 in the Big 12, or a Maryland squad that is just 5-11 away from its home court. The 2-seed, Arizona, does serve as a big opposition, but the Wildcats do have an inconsistent backcourt. As dangerous as Baylor can be, the Bears just got beat twice by Iowa State and have flaws defensively. The 4-seed, Virginia, is hard to figure out and has flaws offensively. The point? There’s nobody that should strike a lot of fear into an Alabama team that just ran ship through the SEC Tournament with three victories by a combined 55 points. The Tide have the perfect combo of size with Charles Bediako and Noah Clowney, explosive guard play with Jahvon Quinerly combined with the steady presence of Mark Sears, and the top NBA prospect in the country in Brandon Miller.

Michael: Alabama. With all due respect to Edey, Alabama's Miller is the best player in the country given his combination of length, athleticism and three-level scoring. Miller is averaging 19.6 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting better than 40% from 3-point range on more than 7.5 attempts per game. He draws 4.8 fouls per game and shoots 85.6% from the free-throw line. If the Crimson Tide need a basket late in the game, there’s no better player in college basketball than Miller, a projected top-five pick in this year’s NBA Draft. Pairing a tremendous player like Miller with a head coach in Nate Oats, who employs an NBA-style offense, is a strong recipe for success. Oats’ system discourages players from taking 2-point jumpers in favor of driving layups and plenty of 3-pointers — a wholehearted embrace of basketball analytics. Alabama scores nearly 37% of its points from beyond the arc (32nd nationally) and just 43.1% of its points (353rd nationally) inside it. That’s a winning recipe as long as perimeter shots are falling.

Andy: Arizona. The Wildcats are playing like they did back in Maui in November. Azuolas Tubelis is an All-American and the rest of the bigs are going to be a problem for them. They’re getting timely shots and can run with any team in the field. They can match up with Alabama, maybe the only team in the South that can do so.

[Complete breakdown of the South Region]

Who wins the Midwest Region and why?

Michael: Texas. It’s hard to imagine anyone having a better week than what the Longhorns just completed to roll into March Madness on a high. Texas pounded eventual No. 1 seed Kansas in the regular-season finale, 75-59, and then capped its Big 12 Tournament title by drubbing the Jayhawks again, 76-56, on a neutral floor that wasn’t all that neutral in Kansas City. In between, the Longhorns notched impressive wins over Oklahoma State, which was the first team out of this year’s NCAA Tournament field, and TCU, which earned a 6-seed. The Longhorns have an interim coach in Rodney Terry whose résumé includes 10 years as a head coach at Fresno State (2011-18) and UTEP (2018-21), and their roster is the seventh-oldest in Division I with an average experience level of 3.34 years per player. Couple those two things with a quartet of players averaging double-figure scoring and Texas has a strong recipe for success in March and April.

Andy: Indiana. The Hoosiers have two pros in Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino. They fell apart against Penn State, but when they are on, the Hoosiers have the goods to make a deep run to the Final Four. I like their chances if they go against Houston and/or Texas — or anyone else in the bracket. They have solid rotation players, too. The lack of a Big Ten title will motivate this team. TJD needs to leave a legacy with a Final Four run.

John: Houston — IF Marcus Sasser is healthy. The senior guard did not play in Sunday’s AAC championship game loss to Memphis, and it showed. The Cougars need him to be healthy — he's dealing with a groin injury — to reach their best level. If Sasser is good to go, nobody is going to defend better than Kelvin Sampson’s 31-3 team. And they have more than enough options with playmaker Jamal Shead, future NBA Draft lottery pick Jarace Walker, J’wan Roberts and Tramon Mark.

If the Cougars don’t have a healthy Sasser and are tripped up, I could see this region ending up being bonkers. Look out for …. DRAKE! Yes, the Bulldogs could go on a deep run, and it wouldn’t shock me if they made the Elite Eight. Sophomore Tucker DeVries, the son of head coach Darian, has led the way with 19 PPG and was named the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year. With graduate guard Roman Penn as a playmaker, totaling 179 assists on the year and averaging 12.6 PPG, he plays well off DeVries and makes things happen for a supporting cast with four players averaging between 7-10 PPG. Drake gets a Miami team that could be missing leading rebounder Norchad Omier, whose status is up in the air for the tournament due to an ankle injury. It’s a manageable pod for Drake, with Indiana or Kent State in the Round of 32. The Hoosiers, as great as Jackson-Davis is, are inconsistent in the backcourt. That’s my concern.

[Complete breakdown of the Midwest Region]

Who wins the West Region and why?

Andy: UCLA. The Bruins are missing Jaylen Clark. They have been banged up overall, but they were one possession away from winning the Pac-12 tournament title. They won the regular-season championship. I’m not worried about depth with the Bruins. They still defend and Jaime Jaquez Jr., is still a matchup issue for teams. Tyger Campbell is a money player and comes through in the clutch.

John: Admittedly, I’m really torn on the West Region. Had Clark been healthy, I may have agreed with Andy’s pick, but I don’t see it for the Bruins. As great as Jaquez and Campbell are, losing your best defender is really difficult to compensate for this late in the year. Then I thought about Gonzaga, and while I like Drew Timme and the Bulldogs to make the second weekend of the tournament, I have trust issues with them defensively. Then there’s UConn, which has the look of a Final Four dark horse, but honestly, the Huskies have yet to earn a win in the tournament under Dan Hurley. It’s hard to think they’re going to win four straight this time around.

The dark horse: Arkansas. There’s no denying the talent level of Ricky Council IV, Nick Smith, Anthony Black & Co., and the Razorbacks are ranked 16th in the country by KenPom in defensive adjusted efficiency. Eric Musselman has gone to the Elite Eight in each of the last two seasons. The easy pick is the Jayhawks — we all know that! — but watch out for the Hogs to crash the party.

Michael: Kansas. It’s easy to question the Jayhawks after they were upended by Texas twice in the span of a week, but few coaches in college basketball succeed in the NCAA Tournament the way Bill Self does — though his health is a legitimate concern after a recent hospital stay. Self has taken Kansas to the Elite Eight or better in nine of his 18 postseason appearances, including four of his last six, with the Jayhawks capturing a national title last season. His current team had three more Quad 1 wins (17) than anyone else in college basketball, and the roster includes an ideal blend of balanced scoring (four players in double figures), a bona fide star (junior forward Jalen Wilson), a 3-point specialist (Gradey Dick is 39.9% from beyond the arc) and three starters shooting better than 76% from the free-throw line. That’s a hard team to beat.

[Complete breakdown of the West Region]

Now that we have your Final Four, who wins it all and why?

John: Alabama vs. Duke, Houston vs. Arkansas.

The Crimson Tide get a rematch with Houston after the two teams met in December — and Alabama took home a 71-65 win. It’s destiny at NRG Stadium. Kelvin Sampson’s team captures the school’s first men’s basketball national championship with Houston alum Jim Nantz calling his last Final Four.

Michael: Alabama vs. Duke, Kansas vs. Texas.

A magical run for Jon Scheyer ends with a Final Four loss to Alabama, the most talented team in the tournament. Star forward Brandon Miller will remain the center of attention for both the right and wrong reasons as his incredible skill set leads the scandal-stricken Crimson Tide to a national championship over Kansas, which reaches the title game for a second consecutive season after avenging back-to-back losses to Texas. Alabama might be an embarrassing mess off the court, but there’s no better basketball team in the country this season.

Andy: Purdue vs. Arizona and UCLA vs. Indiana.

I’ve got Purdue vs. UCLA and the Boilermakers winning it all behind the player of the year Zach Edey. The easy thing is to say the guards are going to be trapped into turnovers and ultimately a loss. But they now know what is coming, and it’s hard to see it taking this team out again.

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