March Madness betting recap: Sportsbooks win big, Unders dominate
In the fantastic movie Airplane, there are multiple scenes in which Lloyd Bridges’ character — Steve McCroskey — laments that he picked the wrong week to stop one vice or another. Drinking, smoking, etc.
For the more public/recreational bettors among us, we picked the wrong week to wager on March Madness odds. Sportsbooks far and wide cleaned up over the first four days of the NCAA Men's Tournament.
So perhaps it was fitting that the very last shot taken Sunday night created another seismic shift of cash from bettors’ pockets into oddsmakers’ coffers.
More on that and plenty of other NCAA Tourney nuggets as we recap the weekend that was in March Madness betting.
When it Rains, it Pours
The end of the TCU-Gonzaga game — the final contest of the first weekend of NCAA play — was gut-wrenching for spread bettors on both sides. Gonzaga closed as a consensus 4.5-point favorite.
With five seconds left and his team down 82-75, TCU’s Rondel Walker made a 3-pointer to pull the Horned Frogs within four at 82-78. TCU backers at sportsbooks across Las Vegas went wild, figuring that would be the final score, and they’d win their bets.
Then the Horned Frogs committed a too-little-too-late foul on Gonzaga’s Hunter Sallis with 0.7 seconds on the clock. Sallis sank both free throws to put the Zags up 84-78. Now, Gonzaga bettors were going bananas, thinking they’d gotten their cover back.
But they don’t call this March Madness for nothing. On the ensuing inbounds play, Gonzaga allowed TCU’s Damion Baugh to let the ball roll in front of him. He didn’t touch it, therefore, the clock didn’t start until the ball was well past midcourt.
Then in one quick motion, Baugh picked it up and nailed a 3-pointer. Gonzaga wins 84-81, TCU covers the 4.5 points.
Said one Vegas oddsmaker: "$200K swing our way. The gift that keeps on giving."
Christmas in March for Bookmakers
That gift is the NCAA Tournament itself. The oddsmaker was following up on a comment made Saturday night after a monster day for the books.
"This is the most I’ve ever seen us win in a day. And this tournament, since Thursday, has been the gift that keeps on giving. We haven’t had a losing day yet. The public is due to get some money back Sunday before they drive back to California."
Or not.
Beginning with the First Four play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday and continuing through all of Saturday’s games, the Under went a sterling 33-11. But the public didn’t really gravitate to that trend until Sunday when seemingly every sportsbook operator noted a flood of action on the Under in all eight games.
However, right out of the gate, Xavier notched an 84-73 victory over Pitt in a matchup that racked up 157 points. The total closed at 147.5 for that game, so the majority of bettors lost that result. And it was the beginning of a regression to the mean, as the Over hit in six of Sunday’s eight games.
Bettors got to the Under party too late, helping give bookmakers another big day.
"People didn’t seem to catch on to the Under trend really until today," BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said Sunday night. "So we actually ended up OK on the Under betting."
Dodging Cinderella
Another key for bookmakers on Sunday was seeing a quick ending to this year’s biggest Cinderella story. On Friday, Fairleigh Dickinson became just the second No. 16 seed ever to knock out a No. 1 seed.
The Bulldogs posted a shocking 63-58 victory over Purdue. FDU was a 23.5-point underdog and had odds of +2000 (20/1) or more to win the game outright. The upset win set up a Sunday matchup against No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.
Said BetFred Sportsbook trader Owen Wright before the FDU-FAU game: "The country is all in on the Cinderella run. Fairleigh Dickinson moneyline is our biggest liability of the day."
Indeed, bettors were piling on the Bulldogs to again win outright as a sizable underdog, though not nearly as much of a ‘dog as against Purdue. Fairleigh Dickinson was around +800 against FAU and put up a good fight but ultimately lost 78-70.
At BetMGM, moneyline tickets and cash were overwhelmingly weighted toward FDU. Another Bulldogs outright upset would’ve likely made Sunday a banner day for public bettors taking fliers on an upstart underdog. But alas, it was another decision that fell in favor of oddsmakers.
And even Fairleigh Dickinson’s upset of Purdue, along with No. 15 seed Princeton stunning No. 2 seed Arizona in Round 1 and hammering No. 7 seed Missouri in Round 2, wasn’t entirely harmful.
"We got some major upsets, which killed a ton of parlays," BetMGM’s Magee said, noting bettors often like to string together favorites on moneyline parlays.
And, of course, there was that crazy TCU cover to cap the weekend frenzy.
"That’s one of the wildest covers I’ve seen in some time. It definitely put the finishing touch on a great weekend," Magee said.
Built for the Futures
FOX Bet senior trading operations manager Dylan Brossman likewise reported a great weekend behind the counter. In particular, with Pennsylvania being one of FOX Bet’s key markets, Penn State’s blowout win over Texas A&M proved good for the customers.
The Nittany Lions, seeded 10th and 2.5-point underdogs, hammered the No. 7 seed Aggies 76-59 in Thursday’s first round. But beyond that, FOX Bet joined countless other sportsbook operators in posting a big weekend.
And with the field now down to the Sweet 16, Brossman said his shop is well positioned in the championship futures market.
"Moving forward, our biggest liabilities are with Creighton, Gonzaga and UConn. Outside of those three teams, we don’t currently have any big sweats in the outright [market]," Brossman said.
All three of those teams are in the +900/+1000 range to win it all. Gonzaga has arguably the toughest path to keep going, as the No. 3 seed Zags meet No. 2 seed UCLA in the Sweet 16 Thursday. Creighton, a No. 6 seed, gets to face upstart No. 15 seed Princeton next, and No. 4 seed UConn meets No. 8 seed Arkansas.
In the wake of the first weekend, Alabama overtook Houston as the favorite in March Madness championship odds. The Crimson Tide are +300 and the Cougars +400 at FOX Bet, followed by UCLA at +800.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
One of the most interesting bets to come in over the weekend wasn’t really that big. In the wake of Princeton’s 78-63 rout of Missouri, a Caesars Sports customer decided it might be worth taking a national championship flier on the 15th-seeded Tigers.
So the bettor put down $2,000 on Princeton to win it all at 200/1 odds. If the Tigers do the unthinkable, the customer would win $400,000. There’s still a long way to go, of course.
In the truly big-bet category, a DraftKings Sportsbook customer had some huge hits over the weekend:
$550,000 on Arkansas +4 vs. Kansas. Razorbacks won outright 72-71, bettor profits $500,000.
$275,000 on Tennessee +3.5 vs. Duke. Vols won outright 65-52, bettor profits $250,000.
$200,000 on parlay of Xavier -210 moneyline vs. Pitt/Michigan State +3 vs. Marquette. Xavier wins 84-73, Michigan State wins 69-60, bettor profits $363,636.
That’s $1.1 million plus in weekend winnings.
Then there’s the case of Saturday’s Penn State vs. Texas game. A Caesars Sports customer put $110,000 on Penn State +5.
Trailing 69-62, the Nittany Lions converted a 4-point play with five seconds left when Seth Lundy hit a 3-pointer and was fouled, then made the free throw. That pulled Penn State within three at 69-66.
But of course, Penn State then had to foul. Texas subsequently made the two free throws and won 71-66. So the bettor got a push and received the $110,000 back. But consider this: the Longhorns closed as consensus 5.5-point favorites — including at Caesars.
That half-point was the difference between a push and a $100,000 win. A push beats a loss, for sure, but still. Here’s hoping you had a better weekend than most did while going against the oddsmakers.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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