Michigan Basketball: Where do the Wolverines stand in the Big Ten in 2016-17?
Mar 16, 2016; Dayton, OH, USA; Michigan Wolverines fans react during the second half against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the First Four of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Dayton Arena. Michigan won 67-62. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Are people forgetting about John Beilein and Michigan basketball in 2016-17?
With a little more than a month to go until college basketball tips-off (November 11th is the start date), a pecking order has been established in the one of the best conferences in the nation, the Big Ten.
The top team in the league is the Wisconsin Badgers, as they are experienced, deep and made a magical run to the Sweet 16 last season.
The next tier could contend for the league’s regular season title, but they remain behind the Badgers, who return virtually every important player from last year’s team. These programs are Michigan State (very talented, but young), Purdue (the best front court in the conference, but what about the backcourt?) and Indiana (the defending champs who need to replace their heart and soul).
A third tier exists with teams such as Maryland (Melo Trimble and a bunch of role players), Iowa (Peter Jok and some youngsters) and even Ohio State (which got some pub on our site) getting pre-season pieces advocating for their potential.
What about another NCAA Tournament team from the Big Ten that returns nearly all of its rotation?
Here are some of the reasons not to sleep on John Beilein and the Michigan Wolverines in 2016-17.
Mar 18, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Zak Irvin (21) dribbles against Notre Dame Fighting Irish forward Zach Auguste (30) in the first half in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Experience rules
No other team, sans Wisconsin, returns as much experience to its roster as Michigan does in 2016-17. Yes, first round pick Caris LeVert moved on to the NBA, but the lanky guard played in only 15 games last season.
Michigan still made the tournament without LeVert, beat Tulsa and was one good half away from defeating Notre Dame in the first round of the Big Dance. The point being, Michigan was talented last season without LeVert and can be successful this season without him as well.
The experienced starting lineup for John Beilein includes four of their top five scorers from 2015-16. Two names to watch out for are senior Zak Irvin (11.8 points per game) and junior wing Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (8.6 points per game and 36.5 percent from beyond the three point line).
Abdur-Rahkman in particular looks poised for a break-out season (14-16 points per game) after showing flashes at the end of last year (13.5 points per game in his last nine).
Elsewhere, one of the best point guards in the Big Ten, Derrick Walton Jr., will run the ship. Sharp-shooting wing/forward Duncan Robinson (45 percent from three) will also start.
Sure, there was a transfer problem this off-season and the bench will be an issue. But, Michigan did bring in a solid recruiting class, including a strong back-up point guard and a top-150 center.
Together, this rotation is thin and the front court is questionable, but the Wolverines are talented enough to make noise in the Big Ten.
Mar 18, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Derrick Walton Jr. (10) drives to the basket against Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Steve Vasturia (32) in the first half in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Games Against Top-25 Opponents
Admittedly, Michigan was terrible in games against top-25 teams last season (3-10). An explanation for this was that they were still a relatively young team and the Caris LeVert situation was hanging over the team’s head all season.
You began to notice some differences in late season victories against Purdue and Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament.
Even with the top-25 struggles, Michigan was still 23-13. Improve to 8-5 or 7-6 against top-25 opponents and now there’s a strong chance they finish in the top four of the conference standings (25-27 overall wins, 12 in conference).
The LeVert issue is resolved and Michigan can just run with the guys they have. Expect more “comfort” within the program this season and that could allow the team to take-off.
Mar 15, 2016; Dayton, OH, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach John Beilein looks on during a practice day before the First Four of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Dayton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Magic of John Beilein
Let’s not forget the coach who guides this program. John Beilein is absolutely a top-five Big Ten coach. He has proven he can take Michigan to a National Championship game. This squad’s ceiling is not a trip to Phoenix, but Beilein can absolutely coach and in certain ways this team is tailor-made for his style.
Beilein likes an open-floor offense with players that can shoot, handle the ball and drive to the basket. His team’s will shoot many three-pointers and then scrap for loose rebounds. Expect four out of the five Michigan starters to be excellent shooters, who can space the floor and drive to the basket.
Junior Mark Donnal will man the front court. He needs to improve his rebounding (a team-wide struggle), but could average almost 10 points a game this season.
Michigan will be offensively gifted and dangerous. If their three-pointers are falling and the Wolverines can get any additional contributions from their bench, Michigan will be able to beat anyone in the Big Ten.
If these things go right for the Wolverines this upcoming season, expect them to finish in the top-four of the conference standings.
If not, another bubble year will be in store in Ann Arbor.
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