Michigan Basketball's Resume Isn't Actually That Bad
It’s disappointing that Michigan basketball’s 9-3 start to the season could be something like 11-1, but the Wolverines actually have a good resume so far.
There’s only been one game this season that Michigan basketball definitely should have lost. That was against UCLA, and the Wolverines did lose.
Looking at Michigan’s other two losses—against South Carolina and Virginia Tech—it’s tempting to say Michigan has been somewhat disappointing through this point in the season. After all, those two games showed us two really bad trends.
There was the atrocious shooting night against the Gamecocks where Michigan made 30 percent of its shots (and only 7.7 percent of its 3-point attempts), and then there was the inability to play with a lead against the Hokies, when the Wolverines gave up a 10-point lead in the second half.
The season is still relatively young, but those are very dark spots on the Wolverines’ resume.
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Right?
As it turns out, maybe Michigan’s in a little better shape than what appears to be obvious. And this isn’t an argument about how the Wolverines should have won those two games.
The South Carolina game was extremely ugly from start to finish. Michigan’s win probability (KenPom) hovered around 50 percent until the second half, and then it fell off completely. Michigan lost by 15, but it felt like it should have been by more like 30.
Three days after beating Michigan, though, South Carolina beat Syracuse 64-50 on a neutral site. The Gamecocks’ only loss this season was by three points to Seton Hall. The most impressive thing about this South Carolina team is a defense with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 90.3 (No. 3)—hello, 7.7 percent.
South Carolina is No. 32 in the KenPom rankings right now.
Then there’s Virginia Tech. This was a game where Michigan was in control until about the halfway point of the second half, when all hell seemed to break loose, and the Wolverines simply blew it.
Since that game, though, the Hokies haven’t lost. And they only lost once before that to No. 31 Texas A&M (now No. 36). Virginia Tech is taking care of business, and it’s now ranked No. 35.
Michigan even played toe-to-toe with UCLA on the road for about 45 minutes before losing in a high-scoring game. The Bruins are ranked No. 9 now.
This means Michigan’s three losses this season have been to teams inside the KenPom top 40. One of them was to an elite defense (Virginia Tech), and another was to an elite offense (UCLA).
The Wolverines have three losses, yes, and there have been obvious signs of struggle thus far. With one game against Furman still to be played, though, Michigan’s nonconference resume has not been bad at all.
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