NCAA Basketball: Best Bets (Big East Edition)
Mar 15, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the statue of Leo the Lion and a basketball court in the lobby of the MGM Grand hotel and casino during the Pac-12 basketball tournament. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
After a slow start, Best Bets is looking to rebound with selections in a slate of intriguing Saturday NCAA basketball games.
NOTE: All lines are from vegasinsiders.com
Last Week: 1 – 2
Overall: 1 – 2
Week one of this picking feature included ACC/Big Ten Challenge match-ups.
I selected Louisville, Clemson and Michigan to cover their respective spreads. Louisville tried to give it away, Clemson won, but it was not enough to cover and Michigan let me down at home against Virginia Tech.
The Wolverines were up by 10 with just over seven minutes left and not only blew the spread, but the game as well. I’m still a little salty over it.
This week brings our attention to one of the most consistently underrated conferences in America: the Big East. They currently boast four teams in the top 25 (including the top team Villanova) and all four of them are ranked in the top 16. Sagarin has them as the third best conference in the country (the Big 12 is number one).
The Saturday slate for the Big East looks enticing with three of their ranked teams (Villanova, Butler and Xavier) playing quality opponents and unranked, but rising Marquette getting a home game against one of the Big Ten’s best – Wisconsin.
How will these games shake out? Who should your wallet cheer for? Let’s take a look.
Dec 6, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; The Marquette Golden Eagles mascot cheers with fans prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Wisconsin won 49-38. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
3. 17th Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5) at Marquette Golden Eagles
Rivalry games are the best. The 123rd edition of the I-94 rivalry commences Saturday afternoon with the Badgers traveling 77 miles east to face-off with the Golden Eagles.
Marquette won last year’s game, 57-55, in what could be described as a “rock fight.” Wisconsin was wrapped up in the Bo Ryan retirement saga and really struggled in the home affair.
This season Wisconsin is ranked and was the pre-season Big Ten champion picks, but they will need to navigate the raucous atmosphere inside the Bradley Center.
Marquette is no slouch either. They are currently ranked 36th in KenPom and possess a top-20 offense that has scored more than 80 points in all seven of their wins this season. A win over the Badgers could pay dividends on Selection Sunday.
So how will this one go? Answer: I think the Badgers get it done in Milwaukee and cover the spread in a close 6-8 point win.
The key here could be shooting. Senior Bronson Koenig is 14-of-26 (53 percent) from three-point range in his last three games (all double-digit victories) after a slow start to the season.
Wisconsin has to hit three’s for their offense to work, or they will not be able to keep up with Marquette’s offensive ability. If Koenig and the Badger backcourt come out flat and guys like Marquette freshman guard Sam Hauser start raining three’s, look out.
Still I think the veteran Badger team remembers last season’s bitter loss and will be motivated to take care of business Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5)
Next: 2. Cincinnati at #16 Butler
Nov 24, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Butler Bulldogs guard Tyler Lewis (1) dribbles the ball past Vanderbilt Commodores guard Riley LaChance (13) during the second half at Orleans Arena. The Bulldogs won 76-66. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Dahl-USA TODAY Sports
#22 Cincinnati Bearcats at #16 Butler Bulldogs (-3.5)
The Butler Bulldogs were one of the best surprises of the season before incurring a head-scratching loss at Indiana State (4-4) earlier this week. The loss had shades of IPFW over Indiana a few weeks ago, but Indiana has bounced back nicely. Butler will look to do the same as they enter back-to-back games against ranked teams, Cincinnati and the aforementioned Indiana Hoosiers.
The loss to Indiana State exposed Butler’s vulnerabilities defensively. They, at times, struggle defending the perimeter (Indiana State junior guard Brenton Scott scored 25 points) and around the basket (senior forward Matt Van Scyoc lit up the ‘Dogs with 23 points). The Sycamores also out rebounded the Bulldogs 37 – 29 and shot 45.5% from three-point range.
Given these numbers, seeing Cincinnati this weekend is not ideal. The Bearcats have won five straight including a drubbing of Penn State and a nice road victory over Iowa State. They out rebound opponents by six a game. 6’9″ forward Kyle Washington is averaging almost a double-double (17.9 ppg. and 9 rbg). The defense is ranked in the top-10 in KenPom.
The key to this game? Who gets to control the pace. Butler is fantastic offensively, and will want to get up and down the floor. Cincinnati wants to play defense, slow the game, limit possessions and keep it in the low 60’s. Despite the questions about Butler’s defense and toughness, I think the Hinkle magic will strike again. I think the Bulldogs will blow this open in the second half by knocking down three-pointers and getting out in transition.
Pick: Butler Bulldogs (-3.5)
Next: #23 Notre Dame vs. #1 Villanova
Nov 29, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Villanova Wildcats head coach Jay Wright during the second half against the Pennsylvania Quakers at Palestra. Villanova Wildcats won 82-57. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
#23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. #1 Villanova Wildcats (-6.5)
The day’s premiere game tips off right at noon as the Wildcats and Irish square off in a neutral court affair in New Jersey in the inaugural Never Forget Tribute Classic. Both teams are undefeated and are looking to pad resumes come Selection Sunday.
The line for this one has been interesting. It started as Villanova -5, but has ballooned to -6.5 with some services at -7. There has been some movement back to -6, but we are sticking with the -6.5 line.
Our pick will be Villanova here. It is hard to pick against the champs. The argument for Notre Dame is that they can really shoot the ball (41.3% from three as a team), will play in front of a friendly Notre Dame crowd in New Jersey and players like VJ Beachem and Bonzie Colson match-up well with who Villanova will roll out with.
The reason I am going with Villanova? Defense. The Fighting Irish are ranked 84th in adjusted defense according to KenPom, while Villanova is second. Notre Dame is not particularly big, so there will not be match-up problems for Villanova. This will allow Villanova to play straight up and they will make Notre Dame uncomfortable on the offensive end.
Offensively for Villanova expect the usual veteran suspects to shine. Expect seniors Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins to play well and sophomore guard Jalen Brunson is coming off his best game of the season against LaSalle earlier in the week (26 points).
Make no mistake, this will be a great game. However, Villanova’s defense and veteran steadiness will be too much to handle. The Wildcats will pull away in the game’s critical second half stretch.
Pick: Villanova (-6.5)
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