NCAA Basketball: Best Bets (Wednesday rivalry edition)
Dec 17, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Jaylen Johnson (10) dunks the ball i front of Eastern Kentucky Colonels forward Lachlan Anderson (21) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals won 87-56. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
Best Bets is in awe of Malik Monk and is looking to rebound after disappointing results following last weekend’s NCAA basketball games.
Last Week: 1 – 3
Overall: 5 – 5
Check out past editions of this feature: Week one, two, three.
Wow, what a weekend of basketball. There were great games and close results throughout the landscape of college basketball. A 3-1 mark was in play, but North Carolina and Notre Dame couldn’t hold leads. But, that’s okay because the basketball was awesome and Malik Monk was awesome.
I thought North Carolina and a couple points would eventually prevail against the youthful Wildcats. And with under a minute to go, it looked like a good bet. Then, this happened:
Consider too that his own coach was yelling at him to drive the ball and he still stuck a three in Carolina’s face’s. Just incredible.
The 47 points from the freshman will go down as one of the great performances in the modern-era of college basketball. Unfortunately we were on the wrong side of it gambling wise. I’ll let New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick describe our mindset.
This week has some fun rivalry match-ups as the non-conference season is concluding for teams around the country. We’ll take a look at the hotly contested match-ups of South Carolina-Clemson, Missouri-Illinois and the big one – Louisville-Kentucky. Let’s dive into the lines.
Oct 13, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach John Groce speaks with the media during Big Ten media day at the Marriott Washington Wardman Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Missouri vs. Illinois (-4)
Two relatively struggling programs meet in their annual contest from the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, MO.
The Fighting Illini come into the match-up winner’s of five-in-a-row, including nice home victories over North Carolina State and BYU. A loss here could damage their NCAA Tournament consideration and would place heavy emphasis on a successful Big Ten Conference campaign.
Missouri is not a good team, but one that is capable of a fight. They could’ve easily beaten Xavier, but was destroyed by seven scholarship players from Arizona and blew a home game against Eastern Illinois. Their biggest problem is that they cannot score. They rank a lowly 302nd, according to KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings, and only average a paltry 70 points per game.
Illinois, on the other hand, loves to get up and down the floor. They average almost 80 a game and senior Malcolm Hill is one of the best scorers in the Big Ten.
To me, this game is relatively simple. Illinois will look to push the ball and will overwhelm the Tigers with a barrage of points. Missouri will not be able to keep up, and Illinois will easily cover the four-point spread. Take the Illini.
Pick: Illinois (-4)
Next: Clemson at South Carolina
Dec 18, 2016; Birmingham, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide forward Braxton Key (14) knocks the ball away from Clemson Tigers guard Gabe DeVoe (10) at Legacy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Clemson at South Carolina (-4)
Clemson has been a hard team to figure out this season. Yes, they are 8-2 with no bad losses, but it feels a little bit like fool’s gold. Heading into South Carolina tonight and beating a rival on the road would create some more believers.
Frank Martin’s Gamecocks will look to take away Clemson’s number one option – forward Jaron Blossomgame (17 points per game) – but the Tigers do have four other players who average double figures.
South Carolina isn’t as deep as usual – they are missing Sindarius Thornwell (suspension) – so they are relying on P.J. Dozier, Duane Notice and a bunch of baby-faced freshmen until their heart and soul returns.
I like the road team in this match-up. South Carolina was able to get by with solid freshmen play in a victory over South Florida, but against a decent ACC team, they do not have enough fire power.
Expect a close contest throughout, but Clemson will pull ahead in the second half and win by 5-7 points. That is what should happen. I have been bit by Clemson before. Prove me wrong, Tigers.
Pick: Clemson (+4)
Next: 10 Louisville (-2) vs 6 Kentucky
Dec 7, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Rick Pitino calls out instructions during the second half against the Southern Illinois Salukis at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Southern Illinois 74-51. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
10 Louisville (-2) vs. 6 Kentucky
Now here is the main event. The battle for Kentucky bragging rights is one of the best match-ups in all of college basketball, and Wednesday should be another great addition of the storied rivalry.
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Kentucky’s path to the game has been covered, but one has to worry about a “hangover” effect after such an incredible game last Saturday. Compounding this is that the Wildcats are playing their first true road game of the season – a hostile environment in one of their biggest games of the year thus far. That is a tall order for any team, especially one full of underclassmen.
Still, I think the match-ups favor the Wildcats. They will look to get up-and-down the floor and if the game turns into a track meet, Kentucky will win easily. Louisville will not be able to match-up with Kentucky’s offensive firepower, but will look to stifle the Wildcats with tough ball pressure, press defense and timely shot making.
Louisville is struggling to shoot the ball from deep, so look for Kentucky to ramp up the ball pressure.
This will be a fascinating game. On paper, it looks like Kentucky should win going away. But everyone knows that rivalry games rarely work out that way. I think Louisville will probably jump on the young Wildcats, but that Kentucky will slowly take back momentum, quiet the crowd and win the game. Take Kentucky and the points.
Pick: Kentucky (+2)
Check back next week for a recap of how we finished this week and our overall record. Meanwhile, enjoy a fascinating set of games!
