NCAA Basketball: Early season mid-major power rankings
Nov 27, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Saint Mary’s Gaels head coach Randy Bennett shouts toward a player on the floor during a game against the UAB Blazers at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Who are the top mid-major teams through the first two weeks of the NCAA basketball season?
With the continued rise of the one-and-done in college basketball, more and more major conference programs are relying heavily on freshman to carry them to postseason success.
While these freshman-led teams have won at a high level – most notably the 2012 National Champion Kentucky Wildcats and the 2015 National Champion Duke Blue Devils – they have also leveled the playing field and made mid-major teams even more relevant.
Programs outside the power conferences may not consistently recruit the same five-star players, but they have rosters full of juniors and seniors who collectively play at as high of a level as anybody in the country.
Here on Busting Brackets, we will be ranking the top five mid-major programs in college basketball every two weeks. In the past, these types of teams have always been a threat to steal a game in the NCAA Tournament and maybe get past the first weekend. Every now and again you would have a Cinderella advancing far past what anyone thought they were capable of. But these sorts of runs were few and far between.
Now, with the changing of the college basketball landscape over the past few years, there are multiple programs outside the major conferences that have a legitimate chance to make Final Four runs that would surprise no one. These types of schools are no longer Cinderella’s, they are now simply contenders. So with that in mind, here are the top five mid-major programs in college basketball through the first two weeks of the season.
Mar 20, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Valparaiso Crusaders forward Alec Peters (25) and Maryland Terrapins forward Damonte Dodd (35) go after a loose ball during the first half in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
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Valparaiso: 6-1
The Crusaders already have two solid wins against BYU and Alabama, but they rely heavily on senior stud Alec Peters for a huge chunk of their offensive production. Valparaiso has a key non-conference game Tuesday against Rhode Island that should help clarify just how good they are.
Northern Iowa: 3-2
That is not exactly an impressive record to start out the season, but, due to a scheduling gaffe, both losses have come against a top 10 Xavier team. The Panthers should once again contend in a tough Missouri Valley Conference.
Tennessee State: 6-0
Being undefeated through six games is a major accomplishment for any team, but the Tigers have only beaten one opponent ranked inside the KenPom top 200 (Middle Tennessee, who is 110th). They have upcoming games against Vanderbilt, NC State and Duke that could go a long way towards building up their NCAA Tournament resume should they lose in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament.
Dayton: 4-2
The Flyers still look to be one of the best teams in an always tough Atlantic 10, and their only losses have come against Saint Mary’s and a better-than-expected Nebraska team. Dayton will have plenty more chances to prove itself against top-level competition in conference play, and they also have intriguing December games against Northwestern and Vanderbilt.
Nov 25, 2016; Paradise Island, BAHAMAS; Virginia Commonwealth Rams guard Jonathan Williams (10) drives to the basket during the second half against the LSU Tigers in the 2016 Battle 4 Atlantis in the Imperial Arena at the Atlantis Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
5. VCU Rams: 5-1
The Rams are not playing at as fast a pace this season as they have in the past – currently 175th in adjusted tempo – but they still feature one of the best pressure defense in the country.
VCU is forcing turnovers on 22.7 percent of opponent’s possessions (40th in the country) and are 12th in the nation in total steals.
They have already beaten two major conferences teams, and their only loss came against an undefeated Baylor squad that has knocked off Michigan State and Louisville.
Upperclassmen JeQuan Lewis and Jonathan Williams combine to form one of the most potent backcourts in college basketball. However, VCU has struggled on the boards so far – they are one of the shortest teams in the country.
While they don’t have any real non-conference tests remaining, the Rams will have plenty of chances to prove themselves in the always challenging Atlantic 10.
Nov 19, 2016; Uncasville, CT, USA; Rhode Island Rams guard E.C. Matthews (0) make a three point basket in the last seconds of play against Cincinnati Bearcats guard Kevin Johnson (25) in the second half at Mohegun Sun Arena. Rhode Island defeated Cincinnati 76-71. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
4. Rhode Island Rams: 5-1
The Rams’ star guard E.C. Matthews missed all of last season after tearing his ACL in their season opener. But he is back and healthy this year and has Rhode Island looking like the Atlantic 10 favorite.
Their only loss so far came against likely Final Four contender Duke, and they already have a win against a ranked team after defeating Cincinnati 76-71 last weekend.
Matthews has played like the All-Conference player he was projected to be, but the real surprise for the Rams has been the emergence of senior big man Hassan Martin.
Martin seems undersized for his position at 6’7”, but his 7’2” wingspan more than makes up for his height. He averaged double-digit points the last two seasons, but has burst onto the scene this year, averaging 16.5 points, seven rebounds and more than four blocks a game.
As good as Martin has been down low, Rhode Island does severely lack size with only one rotation player taller than 6’7”. They are currently letting opponents rebound a third of their misses and they will need to clean up their issues on the defensive glass to fully reach their potential this season.
Nov 23, 2016; Paradise Island, BAHAMAS; Wichita State Shockers head coach Gregg Marshall reacts during the first half against the LSU Tigers in the 2016 Battle 4 Atlantis in the Imperial Arena at the Atlantis Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
3. Wichita State Shockers: 5-2
The Shockers once again feature one of the top defenses in the country early on – fifth in the nation according to KenPom – and they look like they have what it takes to win an NCAA Tournament game for the fifth consecutive season.
Gregg Marshall boasts a formidable front court attack with Markis McDuffie, Darral Willis Jr., Zach Brown and Rauno Nurger. The four combine to score almost half of Wichita State’s points and are all solid defensively. Throw in Rashard Kelly, and Wichita State has a dangerous front line.
The biggest issue the Shockers face is finding a way to replace the departure of last year’s starting backcourt of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet. The two seniors averaged a combined 26.2 points and 8.7 assists per game last season and were two of the toughest and most experienced guards in the country.
This year, the Shockers are relying heavily on freshmen Landry Shamet and Austin Reaves in the backcourt, while sharpshooting junior Conner Frankamp’s limited offensive skill-set continues to plague an already punch-less Wichita State attack.
After two early season losses to tough opponents in Louisville and Michigan State, the Shockers have two more chances to redeem themselves against major conference teams with games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Those two match-ups could go a long way towards building up Wichita State’s tournament resume come March.
Nov 16, 2016; Moraga, CA, USA; St. Mary’s Gaels center Jock Landale (34) claps along with guard Joe Rahon (25) and head coach Randy Bennett from the bench after a play against the Prairie View A&M Panthers during the first half at McKeon Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
2. Saint Mary’s Gaels: 5-0
Here is one of two WCC teams in our power rankings.
Year after year, Saint Mary’s continues to put together one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball. They are methodical on that end of the floor – 350th in adjusted tempo – but they are fifth in the country in effective field goal percentage and ninth in turnover rate.
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Saint Mary’s being so balanced offensively is nothing new, as they almost always feature one of the more balanced scoring attacks in the country. What could make this year’s team special, however, is the emergence of a go-to player in junior big man Jock Landale.
If the season ended tomorrow, Landale would get some First-Team All-American votes. The Australian center is averaging 21 points and 9.2 rebounds, while hitting an incredible 76.3 percent of his shots. His 43.5 PER (player efficiency rating) isn’t too shabby either.
The Gaels have yet to notch a signature win, but a blowout victory over MWC favorite Nevada and a close call against Atlantic 10 contender Dayton have proven their status among this season’s elite mid-majors.
They will be heavily favored in their remaining non-conference games and face no real challenges in the WCC until their January 5th matchup with BYU. Saint Mary’s has a very good chance to enter 2017 undefeated.
Nov 27, 2016; Kissimmee, FL, USA; 2016 Advocare Invitational Tournament MVP Gonzaga guard Nigel Williams-Goss (5) celebrates with teammates after their game against Iowa State at HP Field House. Gonzaga won 73-71. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs: 6-0
Not unlike most years, Gonzaga looks like the most dangerous mid-major team in America early on. What might end up being different from most seasons, however, is that the Bulldogs look like they have a chance to make their first Final Four in school history.
The Zags boast one of the most balance attacks in the country. They have six players averaging at least nine points per game and they can beat you on the perimeter or in the paint.
Their backcourt attack is led by redshirt sophomore Josh Perkins and Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss. Both players average more than 12 points per contest and they also combine for 7.8 assists per game.
As impressive as their guards have been, the Bulldogs have been even better down low.
Starting big men Przemek Karnowski and Johnathan Williams are combining to average 22.8 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. The Zags are also getting 17.6 points and 10.5 rebounds per night from their two freshmen big men Zach Collins and Killian Tillie. Gonzaga is one of the tallest teams in the country and, unsurprisingly, they are among the nations best on the glass.
Gonzaga’s biggest question mark moving forward is perimeter shooting. They lost three of their top four marksmen from last season, including All-WCC performer Kyle Wiltjer. They are also currently getting less than 29 percent of their points from beyond the arc.
After back-to-back wins over Florida and then-21st ranked Iowa State, Gonzaga has one more non-conference challenge in Pac-12 power Arizona. It would be surprising if they have more than one loss heading into conference play, and they should be near the top of these rankings all season if they play anywhere close to their potential.
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