Alabama Crimson Tide

NCAA Basketball: Predicting and projecting the gauntlet that is conference play

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:20 p.m. ET

Fansided, Carmine Carcieri/FanSided via Busting Brackets

Dec 23, 2016; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Ethan Happ (22) competes for a loose ball during the game against the Florida A&M Rattlers at the Kohl Center. Wisconsin defeated Florida A&M 90-37. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

With the non-conference slate in the rearview mirror, we will use the results to help predict how NCAA basketball conference play will turn out.

After numerous upsets, buzzer beaters, thrilling games and key results, we are finally getting into the nitty gritty of the college basketball season.

Conference play is the most critical time for teams to separate themselves from the pack. This is when players truly make a name for themselves and programs start to emerge as true NCAA Tournament contenders.

This doesn’t mean that non-conference play doesn’t matter in the long run, because it does. It’s a time to boost your conference’s RPI, your own resume and to record quality wins against potential fellow bubble teams that could move the needle in March.

But conference play is still a different animal. The programs in your conference are familiar with your game plans, your scheme, your players and the road environments. There are no off nights, no buy-games and no cupcakes. It’s all about toughness, execution and skill.

With that in mind, I decided to use the results from non-conference play and the dozens and dozens of games that I have watched over the first two months to try to put together projections for the rest of the college basketball regular season.

I will form predictions for what the Atlantic 10, AAC, Big East and the Power Five league standings will look like at the end of the regular season. If you have thoughts and comments, or you disagree with my position, please let me know what you think!

Mar 11, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; A AAC Tournament logo basketball sits court side prior to a game between the Connecticut Huskies and Cincinnati Bearcats during the AAC Tournament at the Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

American Athletic Conference

The Cincinnati Bearcats are by far the best team in the AAC this season. Their defense is once again the strength of their roster, while Jacob Evans, Gary Clark and Kyle Washington have been tremendous on the offensive end of the floor. If the Bearcats want to hit their true potential though, they must get more efficiency from senior point guard Troy Caupain (24 percent from beyond the arc).

The AAC, as I mentioned yesterday, may only receive one bid beyond the Bearcats (they aren’t guaranteed to make the tournament yet but they pass the eye test at this point). SMU looks like that team because of their ball movement, balance and the play of Semi Ojeleye.

Meanwhile, the Cougars of Houston and Tigers of Memphis both have outside shots of making the NCAA Tournament. However, both teams didn’t earn quality wins in the non-conference and won’t have many opportunities outside of Cincinnati and SMU in AAC play.

UCF has been a pleasant surprise due to the emergence of 7’6″ big man Tacko Fall. It will be interesting to see how the Knights play when battling a higher level of competition on a nightly basis. How consistent can they be, and can they survive the injury to B.J. Taylor?

Fran Dunphy’s Temple Owls have one of the weirdest resumes in the nation, as they have beaten Florida State and West Virginia, but also lost to New Hampshire, UMass and George Washington. The Owls could finish higher in the standings if Josh Brown gets 100 percent healthy.

Finally, the most disappointing team in the league is the UConn Huskies. Kevin Ollie’s squad could always turn things around, but their personnel says otherwise. They have three serious injuries to key players and lack the outside shooting to make up for their shaky big men. Jalen Adams and Rodney Purvis would have to put this team on their backs.

Dec 3, 2016; Providence, RI, USA; Rhode Island Rams guard Jarvis Garrett (1) looks to shoot past Providence Friars forward Rodney Bullock (5) during the second half at the Dunkin Donuts Center. The Friars won 63-60. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Atlantic 10

Like the AAC, the Atlantic 10 didn’t have a very strong non-conference slate.

The Rhode Island Rams look like the best team in the league, but they lost three straight road games to Valpo, Providence and Houston from late November to early December. E.C. Matthews is still working back into form following a torn ACL, and the team’s leading scorer Hassan Martin is out with two tore muscles in his quad.

But Dan Hurley has more talent than any team in the league, so they should hold off Dayton and VCU for the crown.

Meanwhile, the Flyers are not the same squad without the services of Bradley transfer Josh Cunningham, and the Rams of VCU were crushed by Illinois and lost to one of the worst teams in the ACC in Georgia Tech.

Beyond those three teams, there doesn’t seem to be a clear cut NCAA Tournament squad. La Salle showed some fight against Villanova and B.J. Johnson and Jordan Price have been awesome as a duo, but can they beat enough teams at the top of the league to sneak in? Can someone help out Peyton Aldridge and Jack Gibbs at Davidson? Is George Washington good enough with their interim head coach Maurice Joseph to make a push? And what about Jaylen Adams and the Bonnies?

The sleeper in the conference is the UMass Minutemen. They are young, but they have depth, talent and Luwane Pipkins is a flat out stud.

Dec 21, 2016; Greensboro, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski talks with a referee in the second half against the Elon Phoenix at Greensboro Coliseum. Duke defeated Elon 72-61. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

ACC

Welcome to the best and deepest conference in all of college basketball: The ACC.

This league has 12 legitimate teams that have a chance to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Even Wake Forest, who I am predicting to finishing 13th, has played quality basketball over the first two months of the season.

But let’s start at the top of the league where the Duke Blue Devils are the most talented and deepest team in the league. Sure, the Blue Devils have looked shaky against Tennessee State and Elon in recent days, but let’s remember that Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles and Marques Bolden are still working back into form, Luke Kennard has been sensational and they still have Amile Jefferson, Grayson Allen, Matt Jones and others. This team is far and away the best team in the nation when everything is clicking on all cylinders.

If any other program has a chance to take the crown away from the Blue Devils, it’s their Tobacco Road rival, North Carolina. The Tar Heels are lethal on the perimeter with Justin Jackson and Joel Berry II, and possess solid depth in the front court with Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Tony Bradley. They nearly defeated Kentucky in a neutral site game in which Malik Monk scored 47 points.

Louisville also has loads of potential, especially on the defensive end. But despite their win over Kentucky on Wednesday, there are still concerns about Donovan Mitchell, Deng Adel and the rest of the Cardinals’ offense. If they can pick up their production from the perimeter, Louisville could also challenge Duke.

I’m not sold on Virginia yet (they don’t have a scorer beyond London Perrantes), but they will always be in the mix at the top of the standingsdue to their solid defensive scheme.

Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Florida State serve as the sleepers. The Hokies are tough and deep, Notre Dame is skilled and efficient offensively and the Seminoles have loads of talent up and down their roster.

Even North Carolina State has Sweet 16/Elite 8 talent level and could be a nuisance for teams at the top of the league.

The biggest disappointment in this conference is the Syracuse Orange. Their guard play has been horrendous and Tyler Lydon needs to play off the charts basketball for them to even compete in games. And yes, they lost to St. John’s by 33 at home.

Dec 3, 2016; Lubbock, TX, USA; A general view of the Big 12 logo on the court at United Supermarkets Arena before the game between the Rice Owls and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech defeated Rice 85-84. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12

This is another deep, competitive league that is awfully difficult to project, at least beyond the team at the top.

Kansas is going to win their 13th straight Big 12 title, as they have an elite backcourt and a stud small forward in Josh Jackson. Their front court play is a bit of a question mark but Carlton Bragg Jr. is back from his suspension and Landen Lucas has experience in the middle.

The Bears look like the only true challenger at the top of the league. Baylor could expose the Jayhawks up front with their size, length and athleticism. Johnathan Motley has emerged as a Big 12 Player of the Year candidate and Jo Lual Acuil Jr. is the front runner for Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

While Kansas and Baylor are the only two teams that are expected to truly compete for the regular season title, there are loads of good units up-and-down this conference.

West Virginia is one of the toughest teams to play in the country. Texas Tech is the oldest major conference team in the nation. Iowa State still has Monte Morris. Oklahoma State has a lethal scorer in Jawun Evans. Oklahoma still has Lon Kruger roaming the sidelines. And Kansas State only has one loss.

While Texas has struggled mightily without a true point guard so far this season and TCU is rebuilding, those two teams are pretty solid for 9th and 10th place clubs.

Dec 21, 2016; Villanova, PA, USA; General view of the Pavilion after the game between the Villanova Wildcats and the American University Eagles. The Villanova Wildcats won 90-48. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Big East

It would be stunning if any team other than Villanova was rewarded with the conference crown. The Wildcats have won the Big East regular season title in all three years since realignment, losing just six total games.

Josh Hart is the front runner for National Player of the Year, and while the Wildcats don’t have the depth of their past teams, they still maintain the services of Kris Jenkins, Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, amongst others.

But the Big East is as strong at the top as any other league in America.

Creighton is a top 10 team with an outstanding offense. They are almost averaging 90 points per game with Maurice Watson Jr. running the offense, Marcus Foster scoring from all over the floor and Justin Patton running the floor.

I have Xavier finishing 3rd in the standings, but they have been the 4th most impressive team in the conference. Trevon Bluiett and Edmond Sumner are the leaders of the pack, but they are shooting just 34 percent from deep as a team. If Myles Davis doesn’t return, the Butler Bulldogs will finish ahead of the Musketeers.

Chris Holtmann’s club has been the most surprising team in the conference and one of the most surprise squads in the nation. Kelan Martin is a “bucket getter”, Tyler Lewis doesn’t turn the basketball over, Andrew Chrabascz is a classic veteran and Kamar Baldwin is a burgeoning star.

The strength of the conference weakens after a veteran Seton Hall squad and Ed Cooley’s Providence Friars. However, Georgetown and Marquette have shown flashes of NCAA Tournament potential.

Dec 21, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a play during the second half of a game against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten

This is one of the toughest conferences to predict at the top. I’ll go with the Wisconsin Badgers, a team that has molded itself into a top 15 club since Nigel Hayes stopped chucking up three pointers on a nightly basis. With Hayes thriving in more of a distributor role, Bronson Koenig and Ethan Happ have played better basketball.

However, that doesn’t mean the Indiana Hoosiers and Purdue Boilermakers don’t have a shot to win the regular season title.

More from Busting Brackets

The Hoosiers have one of the more potent offenses in the nation, but they also have a ceiling due to their inconsistencies. The Boilermakers are shooting the ball better from the perimeter this season and Caleb Swanigan is racking up double doubles like it’s his job, but they still have turnover issues and their defense could be better.

After those three teams, there is a major drop off. Maryland, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota have all shown flashes of brilliance, however, the Terps, Spartans, Wolverines and maybe the Buckeyes are the only teams that look worthy of an NCAA Tournament at-large bid at this point. Minnesota hasn’t played a difficult schedule and even Northwestern will have to win nine or 10 conference games to make March Madness.

Right now, due to Michigan State’s injuries, I think Maryland is better than the Spartans.

Dec 7, 2016; Boulder, CO, USA; General view of a painted PAC 12 emblem before the start of the game between the Xavier Musketeers against the Colorado Buffaloes at the Coors Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12

The UCLA Bruins are not a lock to win the Pac-12, however, it’s going to be awfully tough to knock off Steve Alford’s squad. Lonzo Ball is the most important player in the country and has helped transcend the Bruins from a 15-17 squad to a team that is number two in the AP Poll and has the makings of a National Championship contender.

But it’s not just Ball. Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton, T.J. Leaf, Aaron Holiday and Ike Anigbogu have created balance and depth on a Bruins squad that is currently 13-0.

While the Oregon Ducks could challenge Alford and company for the Pac-12 regular season title, they’ve been underwhelming to start this 2016-17 season. Dillon Brooks continues to work his way back into form following a foot injury and Tyler Dorsey hasn’t taken the leap many expected him to take.

The Ducks look like they miss Dwayne Benjamin and Elgin Cook, will need to improve their chemistry and must get Chris Boucher back. But the good news is that Dana Altman is a terrific offensive coach and the Ducks still have pieces.

While Ducks have an outside shot of winning the league, the Arizona Wildcats have too many question marks to do so. With Allonzo Trier dealing with eligibility issues, Parker Jackson-Cartwright battling an ankle injury and Ray Smith retiring, the Wildcats are going to need Lauri Markkanen, Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons to be outstanding in conference play.

California, Colorado and Utah are all bubble teams at this point in the season. Ivan Rabb needs to play a lot better if the Golden Bears are going to have an impact in league play.

Finally, the bottom of the league looks really poor. Washington doesn’t play defense, Arizona State was smoked by Purdue and Kentucky, Washington State doesn’t have a strong supporting cast for Josh Hawkinson and Oregon State has been flat out awful.

Oct 19, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Texas A&M head coach Billy Kennedy during SEC Tipoff at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

SEC

There is no one that will even sniff the top of the standings other than the Kentucky Wildcats. UK has one of the best backcourts in the nation in De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, if not the best. If Edrice ‘Bam’ Adebayo is given the ball more on the block, this Wildcats team could win it all.

South Carolina is the clear cut second best team if Sindarius Thornwell returns. The Gamecocks are tough defensively, P.J. Dozier has been remarkably good and Chris Silva and Maik Kotsar have emerged up front.

Florida earned some quality wins during non-conference play (Seton Hall and Miami) and Texas A&M has played well against top quality competition and have a terrific front court (Tyler Davis and Robert Williams). However, beyond the top four things are wide open.

Arkansas is a good team, but they haven’t really played anyone of significance. J.J. Frazier and Yante Maten are as talented of a one-two punch as there is in the conference, but Georgia needs more from their supporting cast. Sebastian Saiz is an elite big in the SEC, however, DeAndre Burnett cannot be as inconsistent as he has been.

I like the potential of Auburn, Alabama and Tennessee, but all seem at least a year away from being truly competitive. The same goes for Quinndary Weatherspoon and Mississippi State.