NCAA Basketball: Three most intriguing conference races
As the NCAA basketball season continues to transition into conference play, I break down the three most intriguing conference races.
Conference play, as many note, is the time when college basketball truly begins. With football, at both levels, coming to a close in the winter, college basketball gains great attention.
While some conferences, like the Big 12 and the SEC, have the same regular season winner virtually every year, most conferences don’t have a determined winner until the last week of the season.
I will break down the ACC, Pac-12 and the West Coast Conference in this piece. All three conferences have multiple teams that are serious contenders for the regular season title.
The ACC was chosen for this article because Duke, North Carolina, Louisville and Virginia are all top-15 teams nationally that have a great chance of winning the ACC regular season title. The SEC, for example, was excluded from this article because of Kentucky’s dominance, and my belief that no other team can challenge the Wildcats within that conference.
While the West Coast Conference is considered a “mid-major” conference, it is surely a multiple bid league for the NCAA tournament.
I have two sections for each conference: the serious contenders and teams that have less of a chance, but should not be ruled out. For teams excluded from this article, the regular season title is out of reach.
Mar 8, 2015; Greensboro, NC, USA; ACC logo during the Championship game at the Greensboro Coliseum Complex. Notre Dame wins the ACC Womens’ Basketball Championship 71-58 over Florida State. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Atlantic Coast Conference
The ACC is the deepest and most talented conference in recent memory. The league currently holds 11 teams with 10 or more wins, the most in the nation. There are four teams ranked within the top 15 of the most recent AP poll in the ACC.
Can anyone challenge Duke for the title?
Serious Contenders
Duke
The most talented team on paper, the Blue Devils were the heavy favorites to win the ACC coming into the season. That has since changed due to injuries, including those to freshmen Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum, and suspensions, specifically the indefinite (but one-game) suspension to star Grayson Allen.
The Blue Devils have only suffered two losses this year — against the Kansas Jayhawks and Virginia Tech Hokies.
Duke has the pieces to win the ACC, without question. They need to remain healthy, and Allen must come back with an improved attitude in order for them to take the ACC crown.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels have performed exceptionally well this year. As a group, they’re in the top 10 nationally in points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game. The chemistry and teamwork of this group is very unique and tough to beat.
It is a must that UNC has eight ACC wins before the conclusion of January. Their schedule becomes extremely difficult in February and momentum is needed for them to handle the onerous February they have scheduled.
Louisville
Though I do not believe Louisville’s poor offense can carry them to an ACC title, you can’t rule out the No. 6 team in the nation.
While their defense is incredible (15th in the nation in points allowed per game), Louisville’s offense is substandard. The Cardinals don’t have a very reliable scorer, as their top three scorers all shoot under 36 percent from the field. Their leading scorer, junior guard Quentin Snider, averages only 11.6 points per game.
Is Louisville’s defense dominant enough to cut down the nets? Possibly.
Virginia
The Cavaliers are in a very similar situation to the Cardinals, only Virginia has an even better defense and a worse offense.
Virginia’s defense is one of the best of this decade statistically. The Cavaliers allowed only 47.7 points per game before their loss to Pittsburgh.
Virginia’s offense is putrid. They’re 277th in the nation in points per game.
Unlike Louisville, I believe Virginia’s incredible defense can compete for the best record in the ACC, regardless of their poor offense. Their defense is good enough to take them to a Final Four in my belief.
Don’t Rule Them Out: Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
Oct 15, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; General view of the Pac-12 100th anniversary logo at Pac-12 Media Day at Pac-12 Studios. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Pac-12
The Pac-12 is home to the nations most prestigious West Coast schools. Four ranked teams live in the Pac-12, including top-5 ranked UCLA, the nation’s most exciting team this year.
All the hype this year has favored the Bruins, but there are certainly programs in the Pac-12 that are capable of challenging UCLA for the regular season title.
Serious Contenders
Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats are by no means struggling, despite starting off the year as a top 10 program and dropping to No. 17 since. Their two losses have come against Butler, now ranked No. 18 in the nation, and Gonzaga, an undefeated, top-5 team.
Arizona only has one win over a ranked opponent this year, coming against Michigan State in the season opener. They do have quality wins against unranked opponents though, including wins over Texas A&M and Cal.
Arizona’s success comes without sophomore guard Allonzo Trier, who is yet to hit the hardwood due to unspecified reasons. Their freshmen trio of Lauri Markkanen (15.8 points, 7.3 rebounds), Rawle Alkins (12.7 points, 5.7 rebounds) and Kobi Simmons (12.3 points) has stepped up and has led this group. But how heavily can the Wildcats rely on their youth down the home stretch of the season?
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Oregon Ducks
Oregon is in a similar boat as Arizona, as the Ducks have dropped significantly in the AP Poll since beginning the year. A 2-2 start showed Oregon’s early struggles without junior forward Dillon Brooks initially, but the Ducks have won 11 straight contests since then.
The Ducks bring a balanced attack, ranking in the top-70 nationally in points per game (79.4), rebounds per game (40.1), assists per game (16.9) and points allowed per game (64.6).
Oregon is loaded with talent, as they have five players averaging in double figures. Senior forward Chris Boucher has been incredible this year, averaging 13.5 points per game, 7.6 rebounds per game and 3.1 blocks per game. Brooks leads the group in scoring, averaging 14.8 point per contest.
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have been the most exciting team to watch this year due to their intense offense and freshmen phenoms.
UCLA won their first 13 games, but suffered a last-second loss to Oregon last week. They’re now No. 4 in the nation.
UCLA has six scorers averaging in double figures. Freshman forward T.J. Leaf leads the way, posting 17.5 points per game, as well as 8.9 rebounds per game. Freshman Lonzo Ball is second in the NCAA in assists per game, with 8.1.
The Bruins high-powered offense, that averages 93.9 points per game, is the prime reason for their success. All their missing is a better defense to dominate the Pac-12.
March 8, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Domantas Sabonis (11) receives his WCC All-Tournament Team award from WCC commissioner Lynn Holzman after the game in the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
West Coast Conference
The WCC is a top-heavy conference that features two very talented schools that will battle for the regular season title. Though considered a mid-major conference, watching the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels is something every college basketball fan should enjoy.
Both teams are in the top 25 and are a combined 26-1. Both are expected to win virtually all their conference games, except the two occasions where they meet.
Serious Contenders
Gonzaga
The undefeated Bulldogs squeezed their way into the top 5 of the most recent AP poll, and for good reason. In the non-conference portion of their schedule, Gonzaga defeated two ranked opponents (Arizona and Iowa State).
Gonzaga could be the most complete team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank inside the top-45 nationally in points per game (84.9), rebounds per game (41.4), assists per game (16.7) and points allowed per game (63.9).
Do the math – Gonzaga is winning by an average margin of over 20 points.
There are no holes on Mark Few’s team, and many believe the Bulldogs have the potential to make a Final Four run, let alone grab the WCC title
Saint Mary’s
Aside from a shocking 14-point loss to Texas-Arlington, the Gaels have been fantastic this season. Although they lack a strong resume, Saint Mary’s has destroyed their competition. On only two occasions this year have the Gaels had a game within ten points, including their lone loss to the Mavericks.
Junior big man Jock Landale, a WCC Player of the Year candidate, has led the Gaels this year, posting 17.6 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 64 percent from the field.
Along with Landale, the deep roster has eight other Gaels averaging four or more points per game. While Landale is the heart and soul of the team, many players, including those deep on the depth chart, are contributing to Saint Mary’s success.
