NCAA Basketball: Which top-25 teams could fail to live up to expectations?
March 18, 2016; Spokane , WA, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mark Turgeon watches game action against South Dakota State Jackrabbits during the second half at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Who are the NCAA basketball teams that are expected to be ranked in the top-25 that may not live up to the hype?
The time is upon us. That is, the time for preseason rankings to be filling our minds and timelines.
There are always a few teams who receive national attention as one of the top clubs in the country. But yet, there are always schools who fail to live up to expectations.
So how do they receive the top level attention when maybe their team isn’t nearly as good as projections are calling for?
In some cases, it starts with their past success. In 2012, after Kentucky had won the National Championship, they lost top level talent including Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Yet, come next season, the Wildcats were ranked as the third best team in the nation.
To make a long story short, Kentucky ended up finishing the season 21-12, missing the NCAA Tournament and failing to make it out of the first round of the NIT. Sure, there were some good pieces on that roster, but they clearly didn’t deserve the third overall ranking coming into the year.
Then you have the possibility of the unexpected happening. Just look at Duke last year. After already being thin in the front court, Amile Jefferson injured himself during practice.
The Blue Devils had problems in other spots on the floor, but this forced Brandon Ingram to play out of position and put a lot more pressure on Grayson Allen to be the go-to-guy every night.
The final possibility is that a team just flops. They have the talent there, but they just can’t seem to put it together (an example of this could be LSU last season).
I’ve put together a list of five teams who may not live up to their top-25 rankings.
Mar 18, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo looks on during the first half of the first round against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo had a fantastic run last year with Denzel Valentine, but with multiple veterans out the door, his team won’t be nearly as experienced as last year.
The Spartans are given the ranking of a top-10 team. But not only did they lose Valentine, but Bryn Forbes, Matt Costello and Deyonta Davis all exited as well.
They’ll be left with just one dynamic player returning player in Eron Harris. They are also coming off a flop of an NCAA Tournament by losing to 15th seed Middle Tennessee State.
Sure they bring in the third overall recruiting class, but Izzo doesn’t normally build his team with newcomers. It’s going to be a complete mystery to see how Izzo handles such a young team.
The Spartans do deserve a top-25 slot, but being in the top-10, for now, is questionable to say the least.
Forward Miles Bridges is going to have to prove himself before the team can be considered among the best.
May 31, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Villanova Wildcats head coach Jay Wright speaks as President Barack Obama (L) listens during a ceremony honoring the 2016 NCAA men’s basketball champion Villanova Wildcats in the East Room at The White House. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Villanova Wildcats
The Villanova Wildcats are coming off their second National Championship and that’s reason to believe that they will finish the season lower than expected in the top-25.
Just look at past National Championship winners and their ensuing season. Duke last year ended 25-11 and barely made it out of the Round of 32. In 2014, Connecticut won the title, but the following year, they failed to make the Big Dance.
Unless you’re the Florida Gators from 2006-2007, it’s almost a guarantee that you will struggle to repeat.
The Wildcats will have difficulty cutting down the nets in April due to the increased level of competition nation wide.
They lost seniors Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu. Then things got worse when five-star freshman Omari Spellman was ruled ineligible by the NCAA.
Yes, Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins return to ‘Nova, but losing two key seniors while having a target on your back is going to be tough to overcome.
Mar 17, 2016; Denver , CO, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few directs his team in the first half during Seton Hall vs Gonzaga in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are ranked just outside the top-10 in most polls. There are some good pieces with Przemek Karnowski being cleared and a whole host of newcomers. Nigel Williams-Goss and Johnathan Williams are transfers who are eligible this season.
Former California sharpshooter Jordan Mathews landed with Gonzaga as a grad transfer and will be eligible immediately.
However, Gonzaga lost Kyle Wiltjer and Damontas Sabonis this past season to graduation. Losing both of these players is big time and is going to impact the team more than fans realize.
Feb 21, 2016; College Park, MD, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mark Turgeon reacts from the sidelines during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Xfinity Center. The Terrapins won 86-82. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Maryland Terrapins
Ah yes, the Maryland Terrapins. Melo Trimble was one of the best players in the country during his freshman campaign, but dropped off significantly last season.
The Terps lost Rasheed Sulaimon, Jake Layman, Robert Carter Jr. and Diamond Stone after this past season – four starters on a team that made the Sweet 16. That is a huge chunk of their production and experience.
Trimble arguably had his best pieces to work with last year in order to make a run, but the Terps failed to achieve their goals.
They do start preseason ranked as a low level top-25 team in some polls, so it’s hard to say they are overrated.
However, this seems like a rebuilding year in College Park.
Apr 4, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams reacts during the first half against the Villanova Wildcats in the championship game of the 2016 NCAA Men
North Carolina Tar Heels
Some people are really going to be upset over this one. How could I have UNC as one of the most over-ranked teams in the nation after such a great year? It’s because they are getting recognition as a top-10 team after losing both Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige.
Paige is a guy who drew the defensive attention for four years and was a dynamic playmaker in big game scenarios.
Johnson also had the big men collapsing on him on offense. This year’s team is going to shift their focus to Isaiah Hicks, who is an athletic ball player, but still has yet to develop a post game. Can you really build a front court around Hicks and Kennedy Meeks?
And will Justin Jackson make shots this season?
Those are all question marks that need to be answered. If they aren’t, the Tar Heels may not be a top-10 team by the end of the year.
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