NCAA Tournament 2021: Best bets to win it all (and why Gonzaga won't)
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It's the greatest gambling month of the year – and with the First Four tipping off Thursday, the madness has officially begun.
Earlier this week, we gave you a tour of the best bets against the spread throughout the first round. But when people think March, they're most concerned with who's going to be cutting down the nets once it's all said and done.
In the spirit of brackets and winners, here are my favorite wagers to claim each region, plus a few thoughts on who will – and won't – reign supreme come April 5 (with all odds via FOX Bet).
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WEST REGION
Kansas (+700 at FOX Bet) – risk $10 to win $70 (plus your $10 back)
This is a number grab more than anything.
Gonzaga’s absurd -250 odds to make the Final Four hike up the prices on everybody else. That’s the way it works. The Zags are a very, very good basketball team, and the numbers say they’ll make the final weekend 70% of the time.
I’m pulling for the 30%. The Jayhawks breezed to a 9-1 finish down the stretch, and their defense was playing at a very high level. They held then-undefeated Baylor to 43% shooting from 2 and 23% from 3. KU dominated the Windex in that very impressive win late last month.
If Kansas defends to its ability and lead guard Marcus Garrett makes some timely plays late in games, the Jayhawks have the size inside to give Gonzaga a go.
SOUTH REGION
Ohio State (+400 at FOX Bet) – risk $10 to win $40 (plus your $10 back)
I believe in the Big Ten conference this year.
I don’t believe in Baylor. Maybe it’s Scott Drew. Maybe it’s the four-guard lineup. Or maybe it’s how disjointed this team has been since that three-week stretch when the Bears didn’t play anybody because of COVID-19 cancelations.
Ohio State was super impressive in the Big Ten Tournament as an undervalued 5-seed. The Buckeyes went toe-to-toe with Illinois for 40 minutes before falling by three points in overtime, and they’ve got some momentum heading into the tournament. OSU will go as far as Duane Washington and E.J. Liddell will take it, which I believe is pretty far.
EAST REGION
Alabama (+400 at FOX Bet) – risk $10 to win $40 (plus your $10 back)
The East bracket is going to be a damn free-for-all with Isaiah Livers out indefinitely for Michigan. It isn't easy to replace your second-leading scorer.
Give me Alabama because the Tide are clearly the best defensive squad in the region. Ken Pomeroy ranks them second in the country in defensive efficiency, and I love teams that can get late stops.
On the other side of the court, when Nate Oats’ stretch offense is on, look out. Alabama frequently has four or five players on the floor who can stick a 3-pointer. This makes the Tide extremely dangerous on the dribble drive to open shooters.
If the SEC champs put it together on both ends of the floor, they’re in.
MIDWEST REGION
Illinois (+150 at FOX Bet) – risk $10 to win $15 (plus your $10 back)
NATIONAL CHAMPION
Illinois (+700 at FOX Bet) – risk $10 to win $70 (plus your $10 back)
Nobody has been better the past three weeks.
Illinois rounded out the regular season with wins at Wisconsin, at Michigan and at Ohio State. If that wasn’t enough, the Illini won the Big Ten Tournament to cement themselves as the best team from the best conference.
This ain’t Pepperdine or San Diego we’re talking about.
Ayo Dosunmu – Batman mask and all – is the best finisher in college basketball, and there aren’t many players who are going to be able to stop 7-footer Kofi Cockburn around the rim. He finally started to use his sheer power around the rim instead of settling for baby hooks.
I believe in Illinois’ current form and think it’s time for the orange and blue to bring the first men’s basketball championship back to Champaign.
I-L-L.
BONUS BET
Baylor and Gonzaga both to miss the Final Four (+900)
It’s an obligation at this point.
I’ll stick to my guns after writing about the lack of betting value on Baylor and Gonzaga a month ago. If college basketball were a best-of-three or best-of-five, I would run away from this wager. But it's not.
And while the pundits claim this is head coach Mark Few’s best team ever, they’ve said that every year for the past 15 years.
I’ll take my chances and bet a Benjamin on the Zags and Bears getting knocked out before the Final Four. A $100 bet makes me $900? I’m down to clown.
Play the FOX Super 6 Tourney Challenge all tournament long for your chance to win thousands of dollars every round! Just download the FOX Super 6 app for free and make your picks now.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
