Can Loyola – or Cinderella – really win the 2021 NCAA Tournament?
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
With Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Texas, Kansas, West Virginia and Purdue eliminated from the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, many futures tickets are no longer worth the piece of paper they’re printed on.
While heavy hitters such as Gonzaga and Baylor remain, most sportsbooks will be very happy with their bottom lines if either of those two teams cuts down the final nets in Indianapolis.
By the time the calendar flipped to 2021, most bookmakers understood how strong Gonzaga and Baylor were and shortened their betting odds to circumvent the flow of more money and more liability.
"We’re actually good on Gonzaga," Golden Nugget sportsbook director Aaron Kessler told me. "We’ve taken the most money on them, but we stayed low [on their odds] from the start. We opened them at 10-to-1 to win it all but moved really fast. We’re good there."
Teams that opened up with much higher odds are way more dangerous for the house.
"Houston (+2000 at FOX Bet to start the tournament) and Michigan (+650) aren’t great results for us," Kessler admitted. "But overall, we’re in an OK spot. We had a couple really big landmines in there, but they’re all gone. Purdue was our biggest liability."
Then there are the teams that, despite extremely long odds, have made it to the Sweet 16.
Take the darling of the dance so far, Oral Roberts. Some books opened up the Golden Eagles as high as 500-to-1 to win the whole thing – meaning a $10 bet on Oral Roberts would have paid out a tidy $5,000.
Even though you won’t find a 500-to-1 anywhere in the world right now, Cinderella is still in the triple digits.
"We’re at 200-to-1 on Oral Roberts, and we don’t mind taking action," Kessler said. "They’ve got quite the road. Arkansas-Oral Roberts is going to be a fun game. It’s going to be up and down the floor with lots of scoring. I’m actually holding Arkansas futures, but that’s a game Oral Roberts can win. They just have to have more of their shots fall."
I wouldn’t burn a Benjamin for a $20,000 pipe dream on Oral Roberts, but you do what you gotta do.
Instead, if you asked me to go futures shopping with you, Alabama would be the first team I would circle on the betting sheet.
The Crimson Tide are the best defensive team still standing, and if they’re making 3-balls, they’re going to be extremely tough to beat. FOX Bet has a pretty high market price on Alabama, at 11-to-1, so a $10 wager pays out $110 (plus your $10 back) to boot.
Loyola is another very good basketball team with a similar price. The Ramblers have morphed from 7-point underdogs against Illinois last weekend to near 7-point favorites against Oregon State this weekend.
FOX Bet has the Fighting Sister Jeans at +900 to win the title (bet $10 to win $90, plus your $10 back), which goes to show how much bookmakers respect the Ramblers.
"They slow it down and stay between the opposing team and the basket," Kessler said. "It sounds simple, but it works. On offense, they move the ball well and get their guys quality shots. They’re solid on the backdoor cut. And Porter Moser is a great coach.
"There’s a lot to like about Loyola."
I’m also always fascinated by Power 5 teams having odds around 30- or 40-to-1 with only 16 teams remaining. I know it’s mostly a math exercise, but the Pac-12 has been the best team in the tournament, with a combined 9-1 record, yet teams such as Oregon (+3000 at FOX Bet) and USC (+1700 at FOX Bet) still have pretty juicy prices.
"It’s completely nuts what the Pac-12 has done," Kessler cracked. "I don’t know how this happened. UCLA was never on my radar. I guess USC being here doesn’t surprise me. They’re talented, and they have an OK path. Same thing with Oregon. Oregon State really shocked me. Nobody saw that coming.
"But the future numbers are made by looking at the sequencing and what a team is facing the rest of the way. One side of the bracket is a lot tougher than the other. A team like USC or Oregon has to go through Gonzaga, so you’ve got to bump those odds up a bit. Either team would be a 4- or 5-to-1 underdog in that game alone. Then it’s a rollover from there."
Kessler brought up two squads that have decent paths to the Final Four and don’t have to face Gonzaga anytime soon.
"A couple teams have very interesting roads," Kessler said. "One is Arkansas. I think they can get through that bracket. I’m not in love with Baylor. They’ve looked good in the tournament, but they’re very beatable.
"Another team that has a great path is Syracuse (+5000 at FOX Bet to win it all). They’re as likely to go from that bracket as anyone. They play so well as a team. They rolled into the tournament, and nobody thought they belonged. They’re running the same defense they’ve ran for the last 40 years. And nobody can figure it out. It’s great."
Before Kessler hung up the phone, I asked him which coach he was most likely to put his money on at this point in time.
"That’s a good one," Kessler responded before a pause and an audible head scratch. "There are a lot of really good coaches. You’ve got [Eric] Musselman, Porter Moser, [Jim] Boeheim. I don’t think any of those are bad choices. Dana Altman, Jay Wright, Mark Few. Even Juwan Howard has had success in the early going. I think there’s a 15-way tie and then Leonard Hamilton."
After talking it out for about a minute, Kessler came to a conclusion.
"Give me [Alabama's] Nate Oats," he said. "I think he’s the best coach."
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