College Basketball

NCAA Tournament odds: 3 reasons to bet on North Carolina against Duke

Updated Mar. 31, 2022 4:19 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

It's blue-blood Saturday, as four of the best college basketball programs will be in New Orleans for the Final Four. All eyes will be on the 258th meeting between the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels, the tournament's first matchup of these hated rivals. 

FOX Bet opened Duke as a 4-point favorite with a total of over/under 150. After some solid back-and-forth action, the spread has settled at Blue Devils -4.5. The total is up a full point to 151, with a couple of offshore shops currently at 151.5.

Can Carolina continue their winning ways? 

When it comes to betting on the Big Game taking place Saturday, I have you covered. Here are three reasons why the Tar Heels will cover — with odds via FOX Bet.

Confidence

Some might call it "momentum," but I call it confidence. North Carolina is a confident team at the moment that believes they can beat anyone. Belief alone isn't enough to win, but when it's mixed with the talent of North Carolina, anything is possible.

Carolina has won via two blowouts, an overtime thriller after blowing a large lead, and a grind-it-out victory. They have seen it all in the tournament and continue to advance.

North Carolina ended the season with a massive upset over Duke in Durham. It was supposed to be a celebration for Coach K who's retiring after 41 seasons as the Blue Devils' head coach. Instead, it turned into a party for a rival when the Tar Heels beat the Blue Devils by 13.

In the NCAA Tournament, Carolina easily dispatched Marquette in the round of 64, scoring 95 points in a 32-point rout. Two days later, Carolina had a 25-point lead against 1-seed Baylor, eventually going to overtime to beat them. The Tar Heels were down three with two minutes left against UCLA, a spot that UCLA is built to finish. Yet the Tar Heels were the ones to close the game out, winning by seven. Then they smoked Saint Peter's, which is exactly what a good team should do.

So as the Tar Heels prepare for the Blue Devils this weekend, they do so with the belief they are unstoppable. And if they continue with their preparation process, no one can beat them.

They also will step on the floor in New Orleans Saturday night knowing they just beat Duke and can do it again. They will not fear Duke and will believe they will win, and that's a massive edge in college sports.

Caleb Love

We love the tournament for many reasons — the action, the upsets, the wagering and the prospect of star performances. Caleb Love has the capability of being that star performer for the Tar Heels, and they will need him to rise to the occasion.

The shooting guard averaged 15.7 points per game this season, but he only averaged 11.5 points in their nine losses. He had four of his six single-digit scoring games in these nine losses. On the flip side, Love gets buckets when the Tar Heels roll. He had 22 in the upset against Duke, 23 against Marquette and 30 against UCLA, with 27 of those points coming in the second half.

Love's ability to create offense in ISO situations and drain three-pointers in high-pressure situations will be vital to North Carolina pulling another upset against Duke.

Fundamentals

North Carolina is a fundamentally solid team, which is one of the reasons they are a Final Four team. Carolina ranks 49th in turnovers per offensive play, contributing to their offense being 29th in efficiency. It is worth noting the opposite is valid with their defense, as they are one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers.

Carolina is an outstanding rebounding team, both on the offensive and defensive glass. The Tar Heels rank fifth in total rebounding rate, and their ability to generate second-chance points from offensive rebounds has crushed opponents, as we saw in their win against UCLA.

The Tar Heels also rank 25th in free throw shooting percentage, allowing them the ability for free points and to close out tight games.

Not turning the ball over, winning on the glass and averaging or exceeding their foul shot average will be a must to beat the Blue Devils on Saturday night. If the Tar Heels can keep playing as they have been this tournament, they will not only cover but have a chance to win outright.

PICK: North Carolina (+4.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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